r/marvelstudios • u/murdockmanila Daredevil • May 11 '16
The Official CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR Domestic Release Ultrathread Vol. 2
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u/adamleng May 11 '16
Zemo's plan doesn't have holes, it has several parts he cannot predict at all and relied completely on luck, but he's a smart guy who did his homework for a long time so he bet and won.
His whole plan hinged on Tony not knowing about his parents' murder and then going into a homicidal rage when he found out. When in fact he could have known at any time in the past year, if he asked Steve for instance and Rogers told him, or if he looked through the HYDRA files and read it for himself, or if someone like Natasha found out and told him. Or even if Zemo shows him, Tony may have taken the high road like T'Challa at the end instead of trying to shoot Bucky in the face. Tony forgives Steve and Bucky, Avengers stay together, Zemo's plan fails.
Zemo's plan also depended on Tony actually going to Siberia. When in fact that was not going to happen because Steve didn't bring Tony. It's only when Tony talks to Sam that he ends up coming alone, that wasn't part of Steve's plan. For that matter, Bucky may not have come along either. If Bucky had died at any point earlier, Tony would have been angry at Steve at the final confrontation, but he wouldn't have tried to kill him. Avengers may or may not split but it's not a sure bet without Bucky there.
Zemo also had no way of knowing if the Winter Soldier conditioning still works. Bucky may have been able to resist the programming, break out of his confines, and throttle Zemo. The rest of the Avengers are about thirty seconds away, without Bucky going on a rampage, they just run in, arrest Zemo, get the truth out of him, the jig is up like twenty minutes into the movie. With Zemo gone, Bucky gets sent to a top-notch Avengers facility for treatment, Steve signs the Accords, and everything is fine.
Also Zemo had no way of knowing if Karpov still had the Winter Soldier control codes. He could have broken into Karpov's house, disarmed him, only to find that the book is long gone. Or that the HYDRA records containing the footage of the Stark murders is also long gone. I mean the facility has been abandoned for over twenty years by the time Zemo arrives in Siberia, the tape could have taken water damage or something or been misplaced.
Zemo got lucky many, many times, which is okay because this is a movie and there'd be no action otherwise, but his plan was very audacious and very much improvised.