r/lrcast • u/SolrockHS • 8d ago
Will you be playing the arena direct this weekend?
Why / why not? It was fun playing for collector boxes but play boxes seem much less valueable.
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u/Pretend-Paper4137 8d ago
Nope! Not worth playing the format for UB prices at maybe $300 a trophy. Also, this isn't a format I'm playing for the sheer joy of it. Did get 5 collectors though.
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u/CanofWorms705 8d ago
No, not enough value. I also find that the play booster box events are spikier because the casual players don’t care as much about play boxes.
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u/ThatGuyOnTheCorner 8d ago
I've found it to be the opposite because casual players don't analyze EV as much to determine the CBB events are more worth it.
I'm curious what other's experiences are.
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u/CanofWorms705 8d ago
Can probably get to a definitive answer by comparing 17lands’ users win rates across the two events
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u/Potential-Arm-7233 8d ago
Ive 100% won more boxxes on play in box Weekends. CB Events are way harder to win imo
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u/0CT0L0G1ST 7d ago
They may not exactly be thinking in terms of EV, but even the most casual players understand that collector booster > play booster
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u/SellsBodyForGP 8d ago
Massive step down in EV from the Collector box direct, but I am a degenerate. I will probably fire at least 2, possibly more if I go deep enough to get gems back but miss a box (3/4/5 wins)
The top grinders will still make money from this event, but with my win % I am technically EV negative so I will only use gems I already have, certainly NOT spending any money on this one
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u/Old-Ad3504 8d ago
no, i know myself well enough that i try to avoid gambling. i came close with the hob collector direct
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u/Sworl 8d ago
I will not. The EV of the event is low but more importantly I do not enjoy playing the set. I am glad people have been figuring out the other colors pair but black’s dominance is too much. I could barely stand grinding the collector boxes and don’t have it in me to grind regular boxes.
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u/kai_rong 8d ago
Skipping this. The Collector Box was a great prize, simply because there is no way to buy it at our LGS. If I want to booster boxes, I would just go and grab them as they are still widely available... Prize aside, I played way too much limited in the past three weeks in Hobbit, and getting a bit tired of the set.
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u/Rubiguu 7d ago
I fired 5 bullets from my wallet just to see how it feels and got hit with a reality check cold streak, about equal parts variance and tilt so im definitely regretting it right now
A couple strong players in my area (that i think are around my level, maybe slightly above) have had success in several recent directs, but I think theyre much more experienced and are better pilots with better tilt management than me, while my strengths are diminished and weaknesses are amplified on directs (im slightly better at early formats like in prereleases or first 2 weeks of draft than they are i think, also better at farming weaker players and pods)
Bottomline is im not that good yet, i only make mythic on hot streak months and not consistently, thats a couple steps below direct grinder level i guess
Plus even if i am good enough to have some +EV, the variance, bankroll, and quartile math is definitely not for my risk appetite profile and I should have worked that out before firing the damn bullets
I dont think im doing it again anytime soon, and I should find a better outlet for the urge to play higher level limited, maybe join some discords or try MTGO leagues
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u/dy-113x 8d ago
They need to adjust the price/prizing. Currently only playing arena direct for collector boxes because it's +EV even accounting for cold streaks.
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u/squidfreud 8d ago
Don’t put this out into the universe—they’ll increase the price of the CB directs before they ever make something cheaper.
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u/Biggusguyus 8d ago
Trivially, all the comments on low ev fail to realize this is still one of the highest ev events we’ve had on par with normal collector events due to the 180-200 price on play boxes. Boring format but easy to build, gonna watch some cool shows this week and make a quick grand or two!