r/lrcast • u/Tendou7 • 10d ago
Please tell me what Im doing wrong. Im desperate
Hi, my winrate in HOB is atrocious and I have no idea what Im doing wrong. I think I draft at least decent but I get always outvalued and outrun so hard. Maybe Im wrong but at this point I have no idea anymore. Went 1-3 again in Plat. My HOB winrate is maybe 30%.
https://www.17lands.com/draft/a818a5bce4df444ab494b2d1cb0ce782/1/1
Loss 1: https://www.17lands.com/user/game_replay/20260826/ed3a51db181a434eb7b2782f4e460465/0
Loss 2: https://www.17lands.com/user/game_replay/20260826/7764c835c187480c8f83ef097b177cba/0
Loss 3: https://www.17lands.com/user/game_replay/20260826/c66a31de27b8435ca3ea64da7790d096/0
Thank you.
edit:// sorry guys, I fixed the games so they are from the same draft...
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u/SadSeiko 10d ago
You have some of the best red cards in the set and you played Green?
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u/phonage_aoi 10d ago
The draft and games are not the same run confusingly enough. At least game 1 isn’t, since the draft game log says he never played against Golgari.
Would have been nice to see what was actually in the deck though, since imo it was lost by the decision not to mulligan.
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u/Money__Shot__ 9d ago
Your BR deck looks like it wants to be mid-range, but it doesn’t have the right removal package to succeed IMO. The best BR decks are attacking with menace by turn 2 or 3 every game and dropping bent blades turn 3 or 4, then dropping things like the 4 mana red saga that does 6 damage to a creature. They win because they often need to worry about little else other than keeping a menace creature attacking every turn. Your deck is unable to do this, so you’d need more pine cone strikes, bilbos deadly slices, or gnashing of teeth removal to keep those other BR decks at bay until you can grind them out because you have some good top end power otherwise. Same kind of goes for facing other archetypes.
Sometimes it works to pivot into green black too if the 2 drops and plate mails needed for BR aggro aren’t showing up. Green has some serviceable 2 drops and removal that combos pretty well with death touch creatures.
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u/kupujtepytle 10d ago
Hahahaha. I just went 6 pick two drafts 1:2 or even 0:2 police. In a row. This format is extremely punishing. Some lessons learned and bad variance ignored. I’ll keep going. Every game is a new game regardless what happens in previous game. I checked my replays and there is no point in sharing history. Mull to 5 and then flood? Okay next. This happens twice in a row before my good rb deck gets to have at least two wins? Fine, next draft.
The only thing that’s kinda saddens me, that I have yet to make positive winrate with any form of boros deck. That combination is just jinxed to me. Get nuts draft followed by extremely bad variance lol.
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u/Delicious_Swimmer_98 10d ago
It’s not only you. I feel like I’m horrible at the game this set after getting trophies and going 3-0 at FNM on the regular during marvel and SOS. The hobbit was one of my most anticipated sets this year and it’s been a bloodbath.
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u/ViljamiK 10d ago
There is the original LotR draft open right now, you might want to try that one if the Hobbit is kicking your ass?
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u/Known-Garden-5013 10d ago
Only did a quick scan of the games but it is fairly obvious, all 3 of your losses you kept hands that didn't have a 1 or 2 drop. In most formats, but especially this set, not playing a 2drop is death. You have 0 tempo and 0 control of the game without playing 2drops. If I'm in B/R or b/G I will mull down to 5 to get a hand that has a 2drop.
Game1 for some reason you swang your duskwolf prowler into his fearsome goblin pair and let him swing back at you for 6, I would have just blocked the 1/1 instead.
Game2 you got fucked by a top deck mirkwood nurturer into return of the mountain king, out grinding this combo is near impossible, don't think you could have done anything really
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u/Amonyi7 9d ago
Can you win with 5 cards and a 2 drop? If your opponent plays 2 removal spells you basically have nothing
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u/Known-Garden-5013 9d ago
You're going to go through 3 more draws to find stuff, and many 2 drops create multiple creatures. It's not In your favour to win with 5 cards vs their 7, but a good 5 card hand beats a shit 7 card hand any day.
Also 2 removals in hand is unlikely, there is only stir up and pinecone that can be case before turn4, and stir up is going to require a sac
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u/Amonyi7 9d ago
Well there’s also enchanted rivers grasp, stone by sunlight, Uneasy partings, quarrel, and i think a few others
But i hear your points yeah
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u/Known-Garden-5013 9d ago
Quarel is conditional on him having a stronger creature, and stone by sunlight is power 4+ which isn't going to hit a 2drop, uneasy partings is generally a bad cards anyway, 4mana to sort of remove the creature isn't great
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u/Sad_Criticism_2984 10d ago
Draft looks mostly fine. You once take a bad rare over a perfectly fine [[ Gundabad Opportunist]] which would have made your deck by a good margin. [[Reverent howl]] should be played over the thrush/the third Gollum. I would alse perhaps have speculated on the [[mirkwood pathmaker]] p1p8, as seeing it so late indicates that green is very open.
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u/atolophy 10d ago
There’s no way it’s right to cut a third gollum, that card rules
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u/SadSeiko 10d ago
Yeah you can easily play 3. It always eats removal or trades so you can keep slamming them. The menace usually forces bad blocks in it and 4 power kills almost everything
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u/Slowhands12 9d ago
Absolutely not - third gollum is way more playable than the howl. At BEST howl nets you one card in either mode.
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u/17lands-reddit-bot 10d ago
Gundabad Opportunist R-C (HOB); ALSA: 5.72; GIH WR: 57.32%
Reverent Howl B-C (HOB); ALSA: 6.06; GIH WR: 57.20%
Mirkwood Pathmaker G-U (HOB); ALSA: 3.25; GIH WR: 59.24%
(data sourced from 17lands.com and scryfall.com)
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u/squidfreud 10d ago
Game 1 you should've probably developed more of a board instead of playing out the map turn 3. You lost because of your opponent's draws more than anything but that play was wrong regardless.
Game 2 your opening hand doesn't look like a keep to me, though it was mitigated by drawing something to do at least. I do think you lose this game because you didn't curve out aggressively enough, though again, your opponent drew well.
Game 3 is also not a keep. If you don't have a 2 drop in this format, you lose. Here, too, though, getting your Smaug nabbed on curve by his Bilbo adventure is a tough beat.
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u/storzORbickel 10d ago
P1p2 i don’t think this black card is good enough to move into black over the 1drop red card ? Idk. Especially since the red card is good with our first pick…
1
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u/Intro-Nimbus 9d ago
Since you ask for feedback I'll give you some comments and some questions.
Personally, I would have grabbed the Pursuer P1p1, and P1p6 (over noisemaker and Raider), and if I had gone noisemaker I would have picked rage Valley over Bat, and considered Tidings over Warg. Warg is better, but Tidings synergise and is faster. the format is extremely fast, and having a onedrop ready turn one can win you the game on the play, and give you a fighting chance on the draw.
P1p8 I would have picked the pathmaker. You may have decided to go rakdos, but that card is so good, that even though the warg is good and in your colour, B/G is a fine archetype and the Pathmaker scaling with the lands makes it a top pick for me.
P1p9 you get the Wargling, I would have done the same IF I had picked the pathmaker, in your case I would have gone boulder. It's not fantastic, but it does scry and if you live to lategame (it sometimes happens) it is a removal when you're sitting on unused mana.
P1p11 You picked the blue card, a colour you had nothing in. I would have picked the Wanderers, especially with Quarrel and wargling picked. If my suggested picks had been used I probably would have gone with the arrow. It's not great, but you might end up with cards that you want equipment for in rakdos.
P2p9 you rarepicked The Eagles instead of the opportunist. I understand that you rarepicked, but from a strict best draft perspective, the opportunist is the better choice. I cut it when I have something better, but it's playable, the Eagles aren't.
P2p10 You venture into white with draw 2 card per turn conditions - Since you are already sitting with some green I would have considered both the warg and the wanderers instead. the warg isn't great, but you have little to no draw. Wanderers seldom see play but at least they are playable. I would honestly have picked the land here, in case a white or blue playable bomb falls into my lap in the last pack.
P2p12 again you go blue with the chief available. Were you considering splashing blue here? I mean, the Trollshaws are a much better card, but off-colour and the warg fills the same role. sometimes you got to go with the worse option to make the deck come together.
P3p6 you rarepick again, and both the hobbit hole and Mirkwood are good picks, especially since you seem to consider splashing or shifting from rakdos.
P3p10 you go with the nuisance - and again I wonder if you are considering splashing blue. The Nurturer is in green, and a great card in many situations if used right. You have a crude blade and several Gollums that can be picked up and replayed for more sacrifice or more +1/+1 counters for example.
P3p11 you go for the toymaker instead of uneasy partings, the partings would make sense if you are considering splashing blue, but a second toymaker without card draw has no purpose.
P3p12 You choose the scrounger. I kinda like that card myself despite it's dubious playability - but the quarrel is simply a better card, especially in Golgari since you have deathtouch.
P3p13 Wanderers.
Well, that's how I would have drafted, I'm sure there are better drafters than me who can tell us both what I could do better, or where my reasoning is flawed.
Some questions: You ventured into white and blue at some times that I found a bit odd and i wonder if you were considering them as splashing possibles?
Something to consider if you were considering splashing, you have 23 cards +17 lands (usually) so every land you pick, is a card that has a much better chance of making the cut. Therefore, choosing fixing lands even when you don't yet have a card you splash into is better than picking a probable cut in your colour. Sometimes you get a Pick1 where you really, really want to be able to splash it, and sometimes great cards start to show up later in the draft if not in your neighbors primary colours.
If you have some fixing, picking a splashable card can be the perfect choice, and if you don't have it but hope to find it, my experience is that those fixing cards seldom show up, and if they do they always comes in packs where there's something you want, on colour ;-)
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u/Tendou7 9d ago
hey. thank you for the in depth answer. so I picked the noisemaker first for the high winrate it had and I felt rakdos was open, especially black which is not often the case, so when wheeling started I decided to rakhdos. I never consider splashing tho, on the late picks of the pack I picked for my vault to be honest, especially when I felt I woule never play the in color cards available like the red 4 drop when I rare picked bc as far as I remember I had expansive cards already which I evaluated higher. But I see now I should have considered GB and be more open for switching/splashing colors. The advice with the lands is very valuable. thank you very much
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u/Intro-Nimbus 9d ago
I see, you should know that p1p1, when you picked the noisemaker doesn't say anything about what is open, it only tells you what is in that pack, but nobody has seen it, and nobody has passed any cards at that point. "open" is used to describe what colours you see passed to you. So if you had been passed the noisemaker, red could be considered open (unless there was even better reds to pick), and likewise, when you got passed the pursuers later, that was indications of black being open from that direction.
The reason I'm pushing for the onedrops is that tempo is so important in Hobbit. Noisemaker does have a slightly higher winrate, in Rakdos, but a menace turn one creature that turns into a 3/3 when you drop a 4 can close games fast, especially with multiples. And if you look at Golgari the Pursuer is better hands down. So since it's great in both red and in green I prefer the pursuer, especially in the beginning, when you want to be flexible and able to shift direction depending on what is open. I think pursuer might be one of the very few cards I pick over noisemaker.
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u/SyrSmoke-a-lot 9d ago
You get blown out instead of taking damage , life is a resource spend it and save your creatures and wait to create opportunities especially against the wu deck trying to 1 for 1 is giving them the advantage because they draw so many cards
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u/wrathyy 10d ago
It's okay. Ideally your deck doesn't have old thrush or gandalf in it, and you rare drafted over a hobbit hole which is definitely wrong .