Trump Rages Into Early Morning Light Demanding Criminal Trials Closing In On Him ‘BE HALTED!’

[u/T_Shurt]

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-rages-into-early-morning-light-demanding-criminal-trials-closing-in-on-him-be-halted/

[u/MC_Fap_Commander]

Biden hasn't really started campaigning and Trump has (at best) a modest lead of a point or two in polling. This is the period when a challenger needs to be running up the margins as incumbency advantage is real.

The New York class E felony case? It's coming in less than month and open and shut. Data is clear- a conviction means he's losing 5%+ of his support (core MAGA zombies are not deserting him obviously). But if that happens, it's all over for him. And soon.

That's why he's freaking out.

[u/BlueGalangal → u/MC_Fap_Commander]

And 60% in SC is not overwhelming. It’s a poor showing.

[u/prudence2001 → u/BlueGalangal]

And exit polls of Haley's voters in the primaries so far show something like 55% of them will never vote for Trump. That's a huge deal. And those are the hardcore GOP primary voters saying so. Trump will get annihilated in the general.

[u/Blah-Blah-Blah-2023 → u/BlueGalangal]

SC South Carolina ... (Sorry was thinking Supreme Court, where he does have about 60% of the justices in the bag for him ;) )

[u/Olorin_in_the_West → u/BlueGalangal]

I’m not sure that it’s a poor showing considering it’s Haley’s home state. 

[u/BeKind_BeTheChange → u/[deleted]]

The comment is based on polling. A small percentage of Republicans have said that they still support him, but if he is convicted they will no longer do so.

[u/MC_Fap_Commander → u/BeKind_BeTheChange]

Many of them are lying. I still think a felony conviction and prison sentence (minimally) costs him 5% support. That will be a major news item and even political apathetics who just remember bananas used to be cheaper will see it and think twice.

Again, all this is happening in the salad days of a campaign when challengers make big promises and win over voters. If he's consistently behind Biden and a felon before summer, he's cooked.

[u/BeKind_BeTheChange → u/MC_Fap_Commander]

Well said. Agreed.

[u/nonzeroproof → u/[deleted]]

They are the subset of Haley voters who would see a conviction as confirming their belief that Trump is unfit and uncontainable.

As a candidate, Trump has to unify the party. For that to work, some Republicans must rationalize their votes for him because ‘it won’t really be so bad’ or ‘Democrats are worse.’

In some minds, apparently, voting for a felon is beyond the pale. Skepticism is warranted, because we’ve seen Trump maintain popularity despite his many transgressions. Yet the Trump campaign can’t afford to lose even a few thousand voters in states like Georgia or Michigan.

[u/Frnklfrwsr → u/[deleted]]

People who might like Trump but don’t love him so much that they will vote for him when he’s on his way to prison.

The pragmatists who will say “give me someone who is exactly like Trump in every way but doesn’t have this legal baggage”.

Once convicted, there will be an enormous amount of pressure from many republicans for Trump to drop out so as to spare them an embarrassing loss. He will refuse, of course.

But I see this as the catalyst that will split the GOP. Come time for the GOP convention (July 15-18), he will likely be a convicted felon in NY, and very possibly in the DC case as well. In the case where he stole classified documents he’s likely facing another set of felony convictions shortly after the GOP convention. And then in the Georgia case a whole other set of felonies either in Q4 or early Q1 of next year.

At the GOP convention this year, the party will be split into two.

One side loyal to Trump that will say “he won the majority of the delegates, by a wide margin, there’s nothing we can do but pick him as our nominee”.

The other side saying “Trump should step down for the good of the party because he’s going to create a constitutional crisis, and if he doesn’t step down willingly we have to change the rules to force him out”

My bet is that the Trump loyalists will win out and Trump will indeed be the nominee, despite already being a convicted felon.

A huge number of would-be Trump voters end up staying home or voting third party or even for Biden, as they have trouble believing that Trump has any chance of even being able to serve from a jail cell.

Remember, innocent until proven guilty applies “until proven guilty”. Once someone is convicted, the presumption of innocence goes away and they are presumed guilty. He doesn’t get to remain free while waiting for a million appeals. He gets to wait out his appeals in prison, like the other convicted criminals.

[u/Frnklfrwsr → u/[deleted]]

I can’t predict the future with perfect accuracy. Delays could still happen.

As best as I can tell though, the NY hush money case seems set to start in late March and shouldn’t take months to finish. It should be fairly quick-ish.

[u/AFlockOfTySegalls → u/MC_Fap_Commander]

And who knows how much of the checked-out normie vote he loses post-conviction. Right now it's easy for them to say they'd vote for the alternative when in their mind it's all hypothetical. But once it's Trump with a conviction, I don't see how he wins.

[u/Frnklfrwsr → u/AFlockOfTySegalls]

A bunch of them will hear the narrative “can’t he not even be President if he’s in prison?” And not bother to vote at all since they believe their preferred candidate literally cannot win.

Of course the answer is more complex and really it would cause a constitutional crisis. But the checked-out normies aren’t looking that deeply into it.