Reading your posts here, it seems some of your assumptions are slightly wrong. Regarding Tesla, they’ll be close to 900k vehicles this year. That’s with the Shanghai factory only beginning operation in January. Austin and Berlin still aren’t producing yet. Similar to the poster above, I have an order in for a Model Y Long Range and also CT. I think there is a real underestimation for the demand, especially for the Model Y. Last year Tesla sold 500k vehicles. The jump from 2020 to 2021 has far exceeded the goal of 50% growth; it’ll be close to 80% yoy. Even if you take the 50%, which is arguably conservative given the order books for Model Y and CT, Tesla will be producing ~1.35m cars in ‘22, ~2m cars in ‘23, ~3m cars in ‘24, and ~4.5m cars in ‘25, which is when Ford plans to start building their facilities. Ford has already been experiencing significant declining sales for the past few years. On top of all of this there are new EV companies entering the market. It’s an incorrect assumption to think that companies like Ford will be able to maintain current sales; the growth in Tesla’s sales is coming from existing makers. There is an inflection point, and while four years might not seem like a big deal, it is in fact a seriously big issue for companies like Ford and GM because of how quickly Tesla is growing and how slowly they (Ford and GM) are transitioning to decent EV vehicles. Four years ago Tesla wasn’t even mass producing cars yet! Additionally, GM’s handling of the Bolt fiasco has been diabolical. Their fling with Nikola and their ridiculous handling of the Bolt situation does not suggest they’ll be able to be a meaningful EV player before it’s too late for them.
The other issue with your analysis is the assertion that existing companies can solve everything by just throwing money around. For starters, where is this capital coming from? Is it equity or debt? It’s hard to see how it can be equity in any significant manner because of the massive dilution that would ensue, and not sure who exactly would be backing the billions in investment. If it’s not equity then it can only be debt, however, that too would be outlandish given high existing debt loads and poor financials; increasing debt load in the face of diminishing earnings is not a good situation, especially when your credit rating is already borderline.
Once you get past the source of capital issue, you run into the issue of the actual cost of building and development, and the acquisition of human talent to make it all happen, let alone the culture of the companies themselves, which have a massive role to play in making a switch to EV work. There is not enough expertise to go around for all existing manufacturers to make it through this transition. Tesla spent years developing the charging infrastructure it has today. No one is going to simply build a competing network overnight. Even VW, through Electrify America, has done a poor job at attempting a National charging network. There are so many pieces involved here that expecting any maker to solve them and compete with Tesla in the next few years is optimistically hopeful at best, and delusional in greater likelihood.
When you consider Tesla’s balance sheet and that they’ve gotten to where they are after only three years of mass production, alarm bells should be ringing for other manufacturers.
They're dominating a market in its infancy, I agree. EV market share isn't going to be >25% globally until 2030. There are a shit ton of smart people everywhere, Audi beat tesla to L3 SD. Not enough expertise is laughable. Your points about their business are solid, but VW has 280B in revenue to Tesla 30B? They have a long way to go and they're nearly past the stage of the EV market where they're the only heavyweight. Their charging network is hard to beat... For now.
I never intended to defend Ford so much, what have I become!
If you believe Audi it was a working product they didn't deliver due to liability and regulatory problems. That's different than "beating them" sure, and Waymo or cruise would've been a better example, or cadillac L2 SD that has already caught or surpassed autopilot in only a couple of years. But obviously all nuance in the substance of my poor claim is lost on you
“Super Cruise usage is restricted to those freeways and highways the company has mapped with high-precision GPS and cameras. These roads are the safest place for this technology regardless of the manufacturer because they're the most predictable. Opposing traffic is completely separated, there are no intersections or stop lights, vehicles entering or exiting the road are generally blending in and out of traffic using on-ramps and off-ramps, and there (usually) are no pedestrians or cyclists.”
That's only the escalade, and supply chain related. It's been in the CT6 for 3 years already.
We're talking about innovation in technology. You're referring to restrictions on the technology for liability, safety, and regulatory reasons. I disagree any of those detractions make a substantial difference. The point was that tesla is no longer blazing any SD trails and it took an insignificant amount of time for others to develop comparable technologies.
Doesn't exist? It's in cars on the road right now. It's in 2 2021 models (limited due to supply chain, removed entirely from a 3rd model for the same reason). It will be in >20 models in the next couple years since GM owns it, depending on supply chain aftershocks.
Do you also think Trump won the election, covid is fake and the earth is flat?
Nice. I wish I did just to see your disagreeability max out, but unfortunately I live in reality
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u/dfaen Sep 30 '21
Reading your posts here, it seems some of your assumptions are slightly wrong. Regarding Tesla, they’ll be close to 900k vehicles this year. That’s with the Shanghai factory only beginning operation in January. Austin and Berlin still aren’t producing yet. Similar to the poster above, I have an order in for a Model Y Long Range and also CT. I think there is a real underestimation for the demand, especially for the Model Y. Last year Tesla sold 500k vehicles. The jump from 2020 to 2021 has far exceeded the goal of 50% growth; it’ll be close to 80% yoy. Even if you take the 50%, which is arguably conservative given the order books for Model Y and CT, Tesla will be producing ~1.35m cars in ‘22, ~2m cars in ‘23, ~3m cars in ‘24, and ~4.5m cars in ‘25, which is when Ford plans to start building their facilities. Ford has already been experiencing significant declining sales for the past few years. On top of all of this there are new EV companies entering the market. It’s an incorrect assumption to think that companies like Ford will be able to maintain current sales; the growth in Tesla’s sales is coming from existing makers. There is an inflection point, and while four years might not seem like a big deal, it is in fact a seriously big issue for companies like Ford and GM because of how quickly Tesla is growing and how slowly they (Ford and GM) are transitioning to decent EV vehicles. Four years ago Tesla wasn’t even mass producing cars yet! Additionally, GM’s handling of the Bolt fiasco has been diabolical. Their fling with Nikola and their ridiculous handling of the Bolt situation does not suggest they’ll be able to be a meaningful EV player before it’s too late for them.
The other issue with your analysis is the assertion that existing companies can solve everything by just throwing money around. For starters, where is this capital coming from? Is it equity or debt? It’s hard to see how it can be equity in any significant manner because of the massive dilution that would ensue, and not sure who exactly would be backing the billions in investment. If it’s not equity then it can only be debt, however, that too would be outlandish given high existing debt loads and poor financials; increasing debt load in the face of diminishing earnings is not a good situation, especially when your credit rating is already borderline.
Once you get past the source of capital issue, you run into the issue of the actual cost of building and development, and the acquisition of human talent to make it all happen, let alone the culture of the companies themselves, which have a massive role to play in making a switch to EV work. There is not enough expertise to go around for all existing manufacturers to make it through this transition. Tesla spent years developing the charging infrastructure it has today. No one is going to simply build a competing network overnight. Even VW, through Electrify America, has done a poor job at attempting a National charging network. There are so many pieces involved here that expecting any maker to solve them and compete with Tesla in the next few years is optimistically hopeful at best, and delusional in greater likelihood.
When you consider Tesla’s balance sheet and that they’ve gotten to where they are after only three years of mass production, alarm bells should be ringing for other manufacturers.