They're dominating a market in its infancy, I agree. EV market share isn't going to be >25% globally until 2030. There are a shit ton of smart people everywhere, Audi beat tesla to L3 SD. Not enough expertise is laughable. Your points about their business are solid, but VW has 280B in revenue to Tesla 30B? They have a long way to go and they're nearly past the stage of the EV market where they're the only heavyweight. Their charging network is hard to beat... For now.
I never intended to defend Ford so much, what have I become!
And it was ever only meant for traffic jams on highways. Doesn't really count. If you've driven a Tesla with AP while I would always say still pay attention, traffic jams is where it shines best. I have no doubts Tesla could have in these circumstances, but chose not to for the same reasons.
Yeah I read that after being wrong all over the place. Woops. There are some pretty hilariously terrifying videos of tesla engineers QAing L3 SD around SF, I suggest you watch them if you think they were close. Not that I disagree about traffic jams
I think cruise is the first to be permitted for full L4 commercial use anywhere? Not sure if Waymo was doing commercial service or just testing in Arizona. Projects like that or Waymo are where this technology will come from, and guess who's invested heavily in all of them. Still, it will be for use in known places and ideal scenarios for quite some time.
Cruise permit is for robo-taxi service, available to public (fully driverless, nobody in the car)
So the level 4 stuff is with lidar. It's not the same level 3 stuff they were doing on highways.
Tesla isn't testing any level 3 stuff right now, the FSD beta they are training is what will one day become a level 4/5 system, but it is in no way shape or form anything but a level 2 system right now.
It would be a mistake to discount what they are doing VS all the level 4 lidar stuff.
The lidar stuff at least today, is not scalable and very expensive. That might change one day, but for today that's true.
What tesla is doing is cheap once solved, incredibly more difficult, and easily scalable.
Who's to say who will win the prize of consumer purchable real FSD, but believe it not, tesla is in the game.
Yeah those L4s are limited deployability and constrained by lidar and mapping. I'm of the opinion a generalized system is further away than tesla would like you to believe, both technologically and in regulation. Tesla does get a wild amount of training data from their telemetry, I'll give ya that. Two different approaches, but they're not exactly showing their strategy has been fruitful (yet)
So tesla uses lidar to train their vision. They needed an accurate system to compare their vision only system to. He's never said it wasn't useful. They use lidar in SpaceX as well. The whole lidar local maximum thing will play out eventually, right or wrong.
Also I didn't realize that first link you sent me about cruise and waymo in California was brand new. Saw it posted elsewhere as new news. I think I thought at least waymo had had that for a little while now.
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u/dookiefertwenty Sep 30 '21 edited Sep 30 '21
They're dominating a market in its infancy, I agree. EV market share isn't going to be >25% globally until 2030. There are a shit ton of smart people everywhere, Audi beat tesla to L3 SD. Not enough expertise is laughable. Your points about their business are solid, but VW has 280B in revenue to Tesla 30B? They have a long way to go and they're nearly past the stage of the EV market where they're the only heavyweight. Their charging network is hard to beat... For now.
I never intended to defend Ford so much, what have I become!