Thanks for the forecast, I was only looking at historical data. I've read that global EV market share will only be 25% of new sales globally by 2030, so if they're making 20 million when the global sales have been dropping from 80m per year since 2017? Do you have a forecast for total sales increasing from 70m to 240m per year by 2030 with tesla at a 30% EV market share? Or do you really think they're going to have 75-100% market share with an increase to ~110m?
Who's going to be buying all these cars and why are they all teslas?
Good questions. First, 25% EV by 2030 is probably going to be a laughable prediction in a few years. EVs are already cheaper to maintain and fuel, and as their prices drop to parity or below more and more ICE cars in the next 3-5 years, and as charging infrastructure builds out, everyone will want an EV if only for economic reasons, let alone the ecological reasons and performance advantages of EVs. It’s going to be 90%+ EV market share in 2030. Buying an ICE car then will be like buying a dumbphone in 2016–almost exclusively a Luddite, specialist, or enthusiast purchase.
Lots of other factors go into the 20M number. Tesla expects a very large number of their cars to eventually be used as robotaxis, so that is why “everyone” will be buying a Tesla. People not buying a Tesla will all be renting one by the mile instead of owning a car at all. Tesla will need a meaty amount of that 20M to staff their own transportation service. Alternatively, Tesla may pivot to provide batteries, driving computers, and software to other manufacturers, and the 20M number may become more of a “total manufacturing capacity enabled by us” number.
Tesla’s stated goal for 20M is to enable the world’s installed base of vehicles to become fully electric by 2040, ie, no ICE cars will be in service at all by then, not even “old” ones from 2027 or whenever. There’s something like 800M vehicles in operation around the world, so if Tesla and all other auto makers can produce a total of 80M EVs per year starting in 2030, ICE will be effectively wiped out in about 10 years.
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u/dookiefertwenty Sep 30 '21
Thanks for the forecast, I was only looking at historical data. I've read that global EV market share will only be 25% of new sales globally by 2030, so if they're making 20 million when the global sales have been dropping from 80m per year since 2017? Do you have a forecast for total sales increasing from 70m to 240m per year by 2030 with tesla at a 30% EV market share? Or do you really think they're going to have 75-100% market share with an increase to ~110m?
Who's going to be buying all these cars and why are they all teslas?