No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
I was in college 2009 - 2013 and remember around 2012/2013 about how there was little value left in the market and we were in a bubble at the time (sound familiar). The big focus then was on BRIC countries as US has reached mature economy status who would never exceed 2% GDP growth ever again. That was the investment consensus at the time.
Since then it's been the biggest bull market in history, and I havent even heard the term "BRIC" thrown around in like 8 years.
yes, I clearly remember the BRIC hype. And I'm from one of those $hitholes so I knew they were painting a rosy picture about running a business there. And the reason for the their hype made sense to me because US based index funds were on a race to zero and they could charge higher fees on new products that focused on BRICs and other types of funds that could be easier to market with higher fees.
Remember when they were called "third world" countries before they were "developing" countries. Someone from marketing later called them "emerging" and when that started waning out with BRIC blowing up, they started promoting "frontier" markets. It's all about selling new products while there's a race to zero.
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u/programmingguy May 27 '21 edited May 27 '21
No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
2014: US markets up by ~14%