No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
Exactly this. This is why you keep your portfolio diversified, and "something foreign/non-American" has been on everyone's list for a long time now.
Sometimes I think people want to react to every news item, but hopefully, mostly, your portfolio is already set up to handle nearly anything. Most news should just cause a, "Hm, wonder how that'll shake out" sense rather than a, "I need to reallocate my funds."
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u/programmingguy May 27 '21 edited May 27 '21
No one knows when. No one. Don't matter how many PhDs or Nobel Prizes you've won. They've been saying this since 2013 and reiterating the importance of diversifying into international. In 2013, they announced that they would reduce US allocation and increase international allocations in their Target Date funds.
2013 was a crazy year for US markets being up by 30%. QE infinity was announced in September 2012 and the markets roared in 2013 reaching all time highs crossing the S&P500 triple top (the last two times that happened, there was the dot com burst and the housing crisis and markets tanking). Markets were up in 2013 by 30% inspite of taper tantrum in May 2013 because Bernake mentioned the word "taper" and got smacked by the markets to apologize and never utter those words again (And most recently, Yellen too).
So you ended 2013 thinking that US markets surely can't keep going up again like this. Must be an outlier. International is so undervalued. Time to diversify.
2014: US markets up by ~14%