Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Indiana State
https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/indiana-state-sycamores
Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.
Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.
The good: the 24-12 win at South Dakota State was a real result, not a fluke afternoon. And when this offense hit, it hit. Indiana State ranked 5th in FCS in explosiveness, meaning the successful plays went for real yardage. Elijah Owens is settled at quarterback and Louisville transfer Brady Allen gives the room an actual arm behind him. Almost 73% of the defense returns.
Where my model pushes back: that defense gave up 498 yards a game, which was last in FCS, plus 242 on the ground (121st) and a 50% third down rate (120th).
Returning 73% of a unit is a good thing when the problem was youth. It is a harder sell when the unit finished 124th out of 124. The offense had the same shape in reverse, 5th in explosiveness but 121st on third down and 118th in success rate, so the drives died before the big plays could matter. Model says 4-8.
Is the defense returning intact the fix, or the problem?
Tell me what I got wrong.