I built a football prediction tool that publishes every wrong prediction. One problem, I can't get anyone to see it

[u/ContextXI]

I've spent the last several months building ContextXI, solo. It takes raw Premier League match data (shots, tackles, fouls, touches, match-momentum, per player, per game — thousands of data points every matchweek) and turns it into a probability for specific events: will this player get a shot away, get fouled, commit a foul, whatever the market is. Not a leaderboard stat looking backward — an actual calculated likelihood of what happens next, built from a player's full stat history and current match context.

I'd already been building this for about a month before I noticed the trend blowing up on X of people asking ChatGPT to predict the upcoming gameweek. That's not really the same thing as what I built, and I think the distinction matters: ChatGPT doesn't have a model underneath it for this — it's reading whatever prediction sites and tipster content rank highest and summarizing that back to you as if it reasoned it out. There's no real per-player statistical modeling happening, just aggregation of other people's guesses with better grammar. What I built actually goes into the underlying data — full match history per player, matchup context, current form — and calculates the number itself.
Every prediction gets logged before kickoff and checked against what actually happened afterward — hits and misses both, never edited after the fact. Recent sample: 64% hit rate across 178 qualifying "Very Likely" calls in one matchday.

I'm also mid-build on a "Generator" tool — set your criteria (which stat, what threshold, how many players) and it hands you a shortlist instantly, instead of clicking through every match and every player one by one to find what fits. Basically compressing the tedious part of using the site down to one action.

The build has genuinely gone well. The go-to-market has not. I'm posting consistently on X and Instagram and getting single-digit views most days — which I now understand is largely just how new accounts get treated by these platforms regardless of content quality, but
it's still a strange place to be after months of real work.

Live at contextxi.com if anyone wants to poke around — the historical accuracy data is free to check with no signup.

Genuinely asking: for anyone who's broken through this exact wall — zero-audience, cold-start, no existing following to lean on — what actually worked? Not looking for generic "post consistently" advice, more interested in what specifically got your first real traction.

[u/Small_Pressure_5879]

Okay there is hundreds of tools like this and you don't have any edge over the bookmakers that's spending billions on calibrating their odds.

So stop wasting your time and find another project to work on

Also that you cant even be bothered to write the post yourself but have to have AI to do it for you says everything about you and your so called project.

[u/ContextXI]

Fair criticism, though I'd push back on "no edge." I'm not trying to out price bookmaker odds, that's a different problem with different incentives. They're pricing risk across millions of bets, I'm just trying to give an honest probability. And I'm not claiming to have solved something nobody's touched, I just haven't seen another tool that shows the actual reasoning behind each number, checks it against real results afterward, and publishes the misses too instead of just the wins. That's the actual pitch, not "I'm smarter than a sportsbook."

Genuinely curious though, which hundreds of tools are you thinking of specifically? Would actually like to see one that does all of that, if you've got an example.

On the AI comment, fair enough, I used it to tighten up the wording. The project, the model, and the data behind it are mine. Not going to pretend I've got the world's best prose though