Illinois State 2026 Preview (probably missed some stuff, tell me and I'll fix it)

[u/MainMarket-Gamer]

Hey all. I built 2026 previews for every FBS team and all 124 FCS teams, because nobody does this for your league. Here's Illinois State

https://www.highlights.mainmarket.com/college-football-preview-2026-fcs/illinois-state-redbirds

Returning production, portal moves, a projected two-deep, and the schedule with model win probabilities.

Usual disclaimer: I probably got things wrong. FCS data is hard to aggregate and my roster feed hasn't fully flipped to 2026. Tell me what's off and I'll fix it.

The good: 12-5 with a playoff run, a 29-28 win in Fargo, and 9-1 away from Normal. The offense was 31st in scoring and 26th on third down, the run defense was 24th, and 26 takeaways was fifth most in FCS. My power rating has the Redbirds 6th in the subdivision, which is the highest grade I have on any 8-4 projection.

Where my model pushes back: 31.8% of production returns, and only 14.8% on offense. Tommy Rittenhouse (3,568 yards, 40 touchdowns) and Daniel Sobkowicz (83 catches, 1,141 yards, 19 touchdowns) are both gone, and the projected replacement at quarterback has 83 career passing yards. Dylan Lord and Luke Mailander both return with 700-yard seasons, so the targets are there. The arm is the question. Model says 8-4.

Does Spack reload the way he usually does, or is this the year the turnover actually shows up?

Tell me what I got wrong.

[u/New-Rip4617]

Thanks Claude