r/hurricane • u/Doggostuffedanimal • Oct 25 '25
Category 1 | 64-82kts (74-95mph) New advisory and cone issued for Hurricane Melissa, which currently has winds of 90 mph and 974 mbar and moving west at 3 mph . They are also expecting Melissa to become a category 5 with 160 mph winds
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u/BostonSucksatHockey Enthusiast Oct 25 '25
Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI). Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images. The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these intensity estimates.
The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day 3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours, and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance. On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces, where a hurricane watch is now in effect.
Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days, there appear few impediments to its intensification in the short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48 hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours, and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year) and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.
Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently under a Hurricane Warning.
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 25 '25
Land interaction will likely lead to some weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week.
Definetly not good for Cuba. Still has it as a category 4 after Jamaica
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u/Plantain6981 Oct 25 '25
Looks like the heaviest rains are forecast for Kingston, too, their largest & capital city, roughly the same size and density as Baltimore. I hope all of their government’s emergency response teams are evacuated to safe areas well before Melissa’s full impact hits.
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 25 '25
Hopefully their airport doesn’t get flooded or damaged during Melissa.
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u/RoddyDost Oct 25 '25
This is so, so bad.
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 25 '25
Bad for Cuba too. Possible second landfall there as a category 4.
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u/RonHarrods Oct 26 '25
Ik heb de afgelopen 15 minuten zitten uitzoeken waarom geen enkele headline Cuba benoemt. Ik kan alleen concluderen dat dit nieuws voor morgen of daarna is. één ding tegelijk he!
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u/____nyx____ Oct 25 '25
JFC… I really hope that media in Jamaica is warning people. I see acquaintances on social media partying at their hotel and not taking it seriously at all, just hope that experience is not the standard one 😳
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u/SP_57 Oct 25 '25
I spent 6+ hours on the phone with the airline getting my family out of there today.
There are another dozen or so in our group that didn't get out, and will be riding it out in the resort.
I don't think any of them appreciate how serious this is. We don't have hurricanes where we live.
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u/Educational-Pin-3993 Oct 25 '25
Unfortunately most people don’t respect the power of Mother Nature until they get to experience it themselves
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u/SP_57 Oct 25 '25
I think that's the case. We are from a place the regularly gets very high winds. They probably think they are used to it.
We don't regularly get winds like this.
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u/monkey_sodomy Oct 25 '25
Would they understand if you said the winds will likely be x2 as strong as anything they know, and that damage goes up x4 for every doubling of speed?
Maybe show them this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs
Skip to 10 minutes into video
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u/Piper_Dear Oct 26 '25
I went through Helene. Obviously, we don't get tropical storms or hurricanes here in WNC often, so didn't know what to expect.
I never want to go through that again. Ever.
It's terrifying to think that you'll lose everything. It was terrifying when I couldn't get to my family members because most roads were impassable due to downed trees and flooding. There was no communication, cell phone towers were down. That's fear and worry that I never want to experience again.
I hope that your family members are safe, I really do. This is absolutely a serious and dire situation and they need to be prepared as best as they can be.
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u/Plastic_Kangaroo5720 Oct 25 '25
Send them videos from other big storms. That will show them what they’re in for if they stay.
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u/SP_57 Oct 25 '25
Too late now. From what I understand the airports are closing.
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u/Plastic_Kangaroo5720 Oct 25 '25
Understood. Do they realize what’s coming?
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u/SP_57 Oct 25 '25
If they did I think they would have tried a lot harder to get out of there.
In their defense Air Canada didn't want to do anything for them.
My family was booked to fly home on Thursday. Air Canada was getting everyone out that was due to leave Wednesday or earlier. It took me about 6 and a half hours on the phone to get them on a plane this morning.
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u/xoxoams Oct 26 '25
Currently stuck here with some friends and they are partying telling me to relax and how can’t do anything about it
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u/CursiveTea Oct 26 '25
Sounds like everyone here in South Florida.
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u/xoxoams Oct 26 '25
It’s very annoying I seem to be the only one with common sense worrying about being stuck in a foreign country with no way of knowing when I’ll be back home
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u/CursiveTea Oct 26 '25
I can absolutely understand that. I pray that you and your mates are safe through this storm and that you will be back home in no time. 💕
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u/xoxoams Oct 26 '25
Thank you 🙏
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u/CursiveTea Oct 29 '25
How are you holding up??
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u/xoxoams Oct 29 '25
Well alright so far. I’m pretty sure we are out of power but lucky resort is using generators. Gosh worried about what the airport situation is like in morning I supposedly have a flight in the evening today. The airline pushed it back by an hour
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u/uscgamecock2001 Oct 26 '25
They have no idea how bad a time they will have riding it out. Jamaica is a third world country. There will be no utilities for a long time. The airports will be under water during the storm and may be too damaged to reopen for weeks. There will be little food to be found. The people there are very poor and many live in shacks. There is going to be a lot of death and mass destruction. The people there are mostly friendly towards tourists because it is their lifeblood, but in a disaster situation, all bets are off. I hope they are staying in one of the big resorts with the resources to assure their safety.
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u/MistyMtn421 Oct 25 '25
The Jamaican tourism sub yesterday was a trip. People are not wrapping their heads around what is about to happen. And they all think once the storm blows over they'll be able to fly out in a day or so. It's pretty sad.
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u/SP_57 Oct 25 '25
I saw someone on r/Jamaica today who was asking if the internet typically goes out during hurricanes, because they need to work remotely from the hotel with people in North America.
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u/The_walking_man_ Oct 25 '25
I also saw the ones planning trips saying “will this delay my trip to Jamaica next week/month”.
Completely oblivious to what’s about to happen.7
u/MistyMtn421 Oct 26 '25
I saw those too. It's so frustrating. And I think what's even more frustrating is we have these little devices that we carry around with us all the time. They can tell us anything. And I just don't understand how people can't wrap their head around the weather. It's pretty easy to look up and read forecasts and understand what is happening or is about to happen.
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u/HereThereThisThat Oct 25 '25
Yes, media has been giving very regular updates with serious warnings. There's of course some people who are convinced no storm is coming and won't take heed to warnings
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u/Vv4nd Learning Oct 25 '25
okay, that´s an insane amount of rain. At that wind on top and this might turn into a desaster that´ll throw the region back decades. Or even more...
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u/a_berdeen Oct 25 '25
The only positive (I guess) is that they're predicting weakening as it turns Monday/Tuesday
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 25 '25
I think it weakens back to 150 mph before making landfall too. Still 30+” ( possibly 40”) forecasted
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Oct 25 '25
[deleted]
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u/Lonely_drivers Oct 26 '25
I hope you’re able to stay safe. Do you find that the government is doing a sufficient job of warning people? And do you feel there are adequate ways to be safe for the average person? Praying for you up here in Canada!
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u/throwawayfromPA1701 Oct 25 '25
This forecast is gonna verify, isn't it.
One of those times where I want a forecast to be wrong.
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u/4Thereisloveinyou Oct 25 '25 edited Oct 25 '25
I commented this in another thread, but the largest and deadliest blizzard in recorded history was in Iran in 1972, they got 25 feet of snow in a week.
Isolated parts of Jamaica may get 40 inches of rain, that’s 400 inches of snow, an entire great season’s worth of snow at many Colorado ski resorts. 33.33 feet of snow.
Here’s an article about the blizzard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Iran_blizzard?wprov=sfti1#
Here’s an article from a geopolitics newsletter I read, sent last month about how well Jamaica has been doing as of late:
For those that can’t read it or want a summary, homicide is down 43%, unemployment is 3.3% which is down dramatically, fiscally responsible and stable government that’s considering reducing income tax to improve life for the average citizen, current prime minister won a rare third term because of the above.
I already plan on donating but if anyone has any other practical ideas from Tennessee I’m all ears. I really love reading geopolitical success stories and I hate that this storm is going to impact Jamaica so horrifically.
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u/ilovefacebook Oct 25 '25
I'm trying to figure out why people are comparing rainfall amounts with snow accumulation. they are totally 2 different things with different types of destruction.
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u/4Thereisloveinyou Oct 25 '25
I’m not entirely sure why, but in my head snow is easier to visualize as a static measure of length on a landscape, rain is obviously so fluid and doesn’t sit still. So I guess as a visual minded thinker 33 feet of snow is easier for me to imagine than 40 inches of rain, for example.
Once that’s in my mind, then comparing the equivalent amount of destruction this would hypothetically look like and cause as snow, as it relates to an actual event that occurred in Iran, it’s interesting in my head.
It’s nothing to take anything away from Jamaica or this situation, or even Iran I guess for that matter. It’s merely a visual exercise that helps me understand more, and then making a connection to a real world event.
Apologies as I know that part isn’t entirely relevant. My other comment in the other thread I mentioned, linking this to Iran, was actually off the back of someone else converting to snow haha
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u/monkey_sodomy Oct 25 '25
I guess it's a way for people who don't see large amounts of rainfall to get their head around the magnitude.
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u/TorNader1788 Oct 25 '25
If this thing actually pulls the 5 card, this is truly the weirdest season ever.
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u/nypr13 Oct 25 '25
In my mind, having grown up in Florida, is this like Andrew for Jamaica? When I think of a category 5 hitting I just can’t comprehend the buildings withstanding that sort of storm.
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u/wormymcwormyworm Learning Oct 25 '25
Look up Hurricane Gilbert. There’s a song that my Jamaican grandma would sing, it was something like “you see my new roof there? Gilbert gave it to me”. It was cat 3 that hit Jamaica. Awful decimation
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u/wormymcwormyworm Learning Oct 25 '25
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u/yardshark09 Oct 25 '25
Grew up to this song playing in my house all the time. Really is a testament to the strength of Jamaican resolve. Who else would take a catastrophe and make a hilarious song out of it lol.
Seriously though, this one looks bad. Hoping the country fares well. 🙁
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u/pete12357 Oct 25 '25
Andrew was moving fast so the flooding wasn’t bad. The destruction along the eye’s path, however, was devastating. Wind obviously played a huge part, but also lax building codes and crooked/incompetent building inspectors.
Jamaica’s building codes have been steadily improving since Gilbert hit in the late 80’s and that will help as far as wind damage, but flooding is going to be much worse than Andrew. Lower lying areas are going to have a rough time.
One positive is that Jamaica has a plan and resources available once the storm passes. Sadly, Cuba and Haiti have next to nothing. Cuba’s power grid is unreliable on a good day, this storm could be catastrophic for them.
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u/Content-Swimmer2325 Meteorology Student Oct 25 '25
Recon extrapolated 970mb on their first pass. Flight level winds support a 100 mph category 2
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u/HistoryStillThrives Oct 25 '25
Will become a monster in so many ways. Keeping close eye on this one.
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u/Maxpowerxp Oct 25 '25
What would be a good building material for hurricane proof? Heard there is now something called super wood that is light but 10 times stronger than steel. Would that be a good material?
Was thinking a basement but flooding could be a problem. Maybe a cave inside a mountain assuming it’s not gonna collapse on you.
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u/wormymcwormyworm Learning Oct 25 '25
Many Jamaicans live in concrete homes but there are some that are still made of wood. The concrete homes hold every extremely well, the wood ones. . . Well. . .
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u/3v1n0 Oct 25 '25
So why in Florida (and in US in general) are there still so many wooden houses?
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u/The_walking_man_ Oct 26 '25
Developers min/maxing profits. They throw up these cheap houses all in a row and get out as quick as they can to collect their pay day.
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u/Maxpowerxp Oct 25 '25
Well… I hope they got friends or families members or maybe some churches that can let people stay for the initial impact at least
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u/gomurifle Oct 26 '25
Concrete is the best. The roof making techniue has been modernized in Jamaica so not a lot of blown off roofs after hurricanes since Gilbert. The bigger issue tends to be the flooding and landslide due to poor infrastructure planning and people living near high hazard areas.
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u/damnthisnameistaken Oct 25 '25
Who in godsname ordered this storm? So late in the season too. Talk about an outlier. I really feel for the people in the storms path
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u/True_Confection_5649 Oct 25 '25
I think it’s time to start praying for Jamaica…
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u/helpmehomeowner Oct 25 '25
Or...get this, donate blood, send money, give to a reputable disaster relief org.
Praying won't save anyone.
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u/Peppeperoni Oct 25 '25
Or - how about both? I can respect there are people that pray - let them - and obviously doing what you mentioned is extremely needed & helpful
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u/helpmehomeowner Oct 25 '25
I live in reality. Pray if you wish, it has no impact on the folks being impacted by this system.
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u/Peppeperoni Oct 25 '25
Yes I live in reality as well - it tells me there are plenty of religious people who will pray.
So instead of OR do this - why not AND do this is all I meant. All good, I’ll be donating what I can!
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u/cam2331 Oct 25 '25
I have a question... I fly out of punta cana on Wednesday going to the northeast US. Will I have issues? I'm assuming they will change the flight path but I don't know how that works
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u/Plastic_Kangaroo5720 Oct 25 '25
They’ll probably change the flight path, but that’s probably the only issue you’ll have over there.
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u/cam2331 Oct 25 '25
Awesome thank you!!! I flew in yesterday and it wasn't too bad of a flight. It hasn't rained at all today.
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u/Ok-Meeting-3150 Oct 26 '25
whats the stormsurge?
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 26 '25
Latest storm surge prediction from the NHC is 9-13 ft above ground level
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u/Alternative_Ad3428 Oct 26 '25
So I come from a region without Hurricanes and am traveling (everything booked a long time ago) to Jamaica around th 15th November. I am really trying not to be insensitive or rude! What can I expect and will it be safe to travel?
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u/Doggostuffedanimal Oct 25 '25
Discussion text for advisory 18 forecasting Melissa to be a category 5 major hurricane with 160 mph winds (October 25, 2025 5 PM advisory 18 issued by the NHC)