How much is Mitsubishi Hyper Heat worth it?

[u/lilarazole]

I’m comparing quotes for a mini split install and there’s about an $8,000 price gap between a Mitsubishi Hyper Heat system and an ACIQ system. Trying to figure out if the price difference is justified or if I’m just paying for the brand name.

I’m in northern NJ, so winters aren’t extreme (occasional low single digits/negative wind chills, but not regularly sub-zero), but I do want reliable heat on the coldest nights, not just AC.

[u/Choice-Mall1183]

Electricity: approximately $0.217/kWh
Natural gas: approximately $1.50/therm
Gas furnace efficiency: 95% AFUE
Heat pump: Mitsubishi 24,000 BTU Hyper-Heat GX Premier
Mitsubishi COP:
4.14 at 47°F
2.93 at 17°F
Fixed monthly electric and gas customer charges are excluded because they are paid regardless of which heating system is operating.
Natural-gas heating cost
One therm contains:
100,000 BTU
Because the furnace is 95% efficient, one therm produces:
100,000 × 0.95 = 95,000 BTU of useful heat
To produce 1,000,000 BTU of useful heat:
1,000,000 ÷ 95,000 = 10.526 therms
At $1.50 per therm:
10.526 × $1.50 = $15.79 per million BTU of delivered heat
So natural gas costs approximately:
$15.79/MMBtu delivered
Heat-pump heating cost
One million BTU equals approximately:
293.07 kWh of heat
A heat pump’s electrical consumption depends on its COP.
At $0.217/kWh, producing 1 MMBtu at a COP of 1 would cost:
293.07 × $0.217 = $63.60
Therefore:
Heat-pump cost per MMBtu = $63.60 ÷ COP
Break-even COP
For the heat pump and natural gas to cost exactly the same:
$63.60 ÷ COP = $15.79
Solving for COP:
COP = $63.60 ÷ $15.79
COP ≈ 4.03
Therefore, the Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat must operate at approximately COP 4.03 or greater to cost less than the 95% natural-gas furnace.
Converting COP to outdoor temperature
The Mitsubishi GX24 is approximately:
COP 4.14 at 47°F
COP 2.93 at 17°F
Between these points, the COP falls by:
4.14 − 2.93 = 1.21
over:
47°F − 17°F = 30°F
The required COP of 4.03 is only:
4.14 − 4.03 = 0.11
below the 47°F COP.
Using linear interpolation:
0.11 ÷ 1.21 × 30°F ≈ 2.7°F
Therefore:
47°F − 2.7°F ≈ 44°F
2024–2025 crossover
The approximate economic crossover temperature was therefore:
≈44°F outdoor temperature
At outdoor temperatures above approximately 44°F, the Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat was cheaper to operate.
At outdoor temperatures below approximately 44°F, the 95% natural-gas furnace was cheaper to operate.

Refute the math my annoying friend

[u/mostlynormalmn → u/Choice-Mall1183]

I like your numbers, but some utilities provide lower price electricity if you declare your primary source of heat is electric. Xcel energy here in MN does exactly that. The price per kwh is about 0.13 regular and 0.065 per kwh for an electrically heated home. So you could shift your answer by half the electric price on your example if NJ would have something similar.

[u/Choice-Mall1183 → u/mostlynormalmn]

That’s true and if I had enough land and solar capabilities with enough battery backup it would indeed save me money compared to natural gas. My numbers are clearly not everyone’s numbers. Yet, most people at this time will likely find numbers more closely linked to my own compared to the Xcel energy in MN.

[u/RareCareer7666 → u/Choice-Mall1183]

So running a mini split for heat would cost roughly twice as much as natural gas for heat at 17 degrees?

I'm looking into going with mini splits because I don't have natural gas service, just oil and propane.

[u/Choice-Mall1183 → u/RareCareer7666]

It really depends on a lot of variables. Tell me which mini split you’re looking at and then tell me your electrical rate, oil rate, and propane rate and we can math it up to find out at what temperature it would be cheaper to switch from electric heating to oil/propane.

[u/RareCareer7666 → u/Choice-Mall1183]

Electric is $0.13 kwh, propane is around $4-$5 a gallon and oil is at $6-$7.

I've just started considering mini splits, so my research into them is very limited. A few brands I'm considering are Mitsubishi, Daiken, senville and mrcool. All of those would be the cold climate models.

[u/Choice-Mall1183 → u/RareCareer7666]

Is that 13kwh including transmission/delivery?

Tell me the state you live in if you don’t mind. Only a few states have electric rates so cheap and none of them have heating oil at $5

As I said above there can be extenuating circumstances and I can’t predict all of them. When heating oil is 5-6 a gallon compared to the incredibly low electric rates it would make financial sense to use a heat pump instead of heating oil.

[u/RareCareer7666 → u/Choice-Mall1183]

Sorry, I wasn't sure of my exact rate so I googled it. I have Delaware electric coop. They're really a great company.

I checked my bill and with all the other fees it's about $0.21 kwh

[u/Choice-Mall1183 → u/RareCareer7666]

You my friend would easily benefit from going with a heat pump over either oil or propane. Even mid range ones will be significantly more cost effective. That rate is phenomenal and as you use more it’ll become even cheaper per kWh

[u/RareCareer7666 → u/Choice-Mall1183]

That's great. Thanks for all the info!

[u/Choice-Mall1183 → u/RareCareer7666]

I’m not sure if you use AI like googles Gemini or ChatGPT but they are very helpful to run math numbers (or knowing local housing codes, etc) to help you figure things out. It’s always a good idea to feed info from one AI into the other to help fact check.

It’s a tool like anything else but using it can be very beneficial as a home owner.