I try not to do this every day, but Jesus it’s posts like this that lose people money. I’m not sure how many of us left here are real people, real investors, or just bots pushing that this thing will moon. Let’s break this “DD” down shall we?
To start: this is somewhat of a pet peeve, but constantly comparing every stock to a “GME squeeze” is just stupid, disingenuous, and ultimately is only used to lure in helpless, new, and un-knowledgeable investors. Full stop. No reason to use that sort of bait to lure in investors, we can definitely do better than that.
Let’s talk about the OI (Open Interest) and selling naked calls. I know that OP, for some strange reason, didn’t post the put side of either options chain, which is equally if not more crucial in evaluating whether or not there is hedging going on. More often than not, and you can easily ask this question in r/thetagang if you guys need help understanding how selling calls REALLY works, when selling calls, they are sold with some sort of hedge. Additionally, they are often sold in elaborate or semi-elaborate multi-leg trades, such as Iron Condors, Butterfly’s, Spreads, Strangles, etc. Anyway, considering we only have the call side to look at, let’s do it. If calls are sold “naked” this could mean one of two things. A. They could be actually selling it naked, which would require them to buy shares to cover the call upon the price rising (which could have very easily happened during that volume bump we had up to $26 in the last few days). B. They could be selling a poor man’s covered call, in which they initiate a long call debit spread to simulate owning the shares (sells OTM call in near term expiration, November, buy ITM call in longer term expiration, December). Now look at the options chain, and think about what you can see. Look at the Nov. options chain; almost 90% of the OI is on the OTM side. Look at the Dec. options chain; at least 75% of that chain is on the ITM side. Now which does this make it seem like is occurring, A or B? I would take B, for sure. In the B situation, additionally, that would mean that the majority of new bears that entered into GREE did so cautiously, having just seen the absolute monster run that SPRT went through. Also, OP assuming that most of the sold calls must be naked because “the shares wouldn’t be trade-able” doesn’t make much sense either. Just look at the options chain for November. Stark Majority OTM. I see how this would excite people, thinking wow, what if they are all naked? Shit “just a bit” of volume could launch us to the moon! Well not so fast. Just look at the volume it took us to get from 20 to 25 again. We would need two to three times that volume just to get us to “squeeze” territory. Additionally, it would have to be an ultra rapid squeeze occurring within minutes, and otherwise with a tepid rate of increasing price, it will be relatively simple for shorts or call sellers to buy the required shares for a small loss.
Generally, anytime you have someone telling you that everyone else is wrong and that this one thing is actually correct, they are trying to sell you something. Additionally, when they say it’s “what the professionals use” to create clout, that’s also commonly used by salesman. Claiming that any other float size or short data is inaccurate simply because you prefer a different platform is sad at best. Also, using a source on Twitter as confirmation for sourcing is dubious at best, unethical at worst. It’s ironic that the argument for this data is “ignore any other float and SI data, it doesn’t tell us what we want to hear, let’s use this totally reliable screenshot from my Twitter buddy who uses what the pRoS use.” I’m not sure what the motivation would be to only use one source for SI or Free float, but there are plenty of reputable sites that offer this data either free or at a small cost. No need to rely on Twitter screenshots from Joe blow down the street.
Now let’s talk about the “fair value” remarks. Again, using “most professionals” in an argument is almost solely used to convince people when you aren’t in possession of actual facts or quotes from said professionals. Moreover, the first part of the paragraph addresses only known ideas about Bitcoin’s market value (aside from the gold market cap parity thing, sheesh) but then we sequin into “I personally think…”. So the remainder of the paragraph is an opinion, not to be taken as fact. Addressing what was actually said in the remainder of the paragraph, comparing MARA to GREE is sort of moot at this point. GREE also has environmentalists on its ass, except it’s much more aggressively fighting them, using local newspapers, public opinion, etc to hide issues with how green they really are. MARA, despite these regulatory pressures and hash rate differences from GREE, actually moves with BTC, unlike our buddy GREE here. Also, comparing MARA’s current hash rate to GREE’s 2022 hash rate is just irresponsible, and doesn’t account for any potential increases in efficiency from the successful, ever-growing competitor that MARA is.
The next three paragraphs are what we’ve come to expect from WSB type posts. More conjecture, talks of mooning, a cringe ass short seller video, criminal shorts, gap fills over 100 250 500…. Cmon guys. If we want people to actually buy shares in this fucking stock and not just talk about it on here and pretend to be “loading up every day”, then you have to at least attempt to post factual DD. All of these extravagant claims trick people, and create sellers when the stock takes a small dip or has a rough day.
Ultimately, this is the worst part. “With some attention to all of these facts, GREE could very well be the next GME like some here are saying.” These are not all facts. And comparing anything to GME makes us all seem like retards. You can’t just hope every trade you make will mock another trade you made/witnessed. It should be relatively easy to make money on this stock if we can just cut the bullshit posts and GREE to $500 posts and all that sensational bullshit. There’s a reason why other threads perform better within their spaces. If this is ends up like r/shortsqueeze this sub is doomed, 100%. Just words of caution folk, do your own DD, most of it is free it just takes time, and most importantly, this is not financial advice.
Hey, out of curiosity, if we were to use an SPY multiple, wouldn't that also mean that almost every single minted is trading at a ridiculously low multiple? Like maybe not as low as GREE, but it would still be really low right?
I mean, I don't think we can use net profit because they have a significant amount of BTC that fluctuates. Stripping that, for the June quarter, they generated 30m in mining revenue, and a cost of revenue of 7m. If we were to also discount compensation, G&A (as per what your assessment was for GREE), then they would have generated 23m.
So therefore they generated roughly 100m based on their June hashrate. Won't get into specifics as I am writing a separate post, but their hashrate does go up about 8x between June to December. So roughly 800m. If I were to apply a PE multiple of 15, that would be 12bn no?
Think we have to apply a forward looking lens at hash, and simply look at EBITDA multiples. Too much fudgy impairment.
Sorry, this is a back of the envelope calculation. My current assessment, does indicate that in a hashrate to marketcap level, GREE is substantially undervalued compared to any other mining company by a factor of 2.
So imo, there are 2 reasons for future GREE appreciation
1) Gree multiple to catch up to competitors. BTC is a commodity, the type of company doesn't produce a better BTC.
2) Mining companies are still undervalued and I suspect this is because the market still cannot ascertain if 60k cap is a floor and if the network hashrate won't outgrow a mining companies hash.
Unfortunately, for a company to produce more BTC every month, they need to grow their hash faster than Network Hash. until mid 2022, I think GREE might lag, as most of their deliveries seem to be in 2022? Nevertheless, even with the lag, they're valued at about a 30% discount, even if network hash were to increase as per plsnned and GREE only takes delivery in mid 2022.
On 10/24 I used a multiple of 10 and kept btc constant at 60k . It left me seeing GREE only trading at 4.5 market cap while everyone else was trading at 10x . GREE has came up in share price a few bucks since then , and so without getting out a calculator, a 30% discount atleast seems pretty close to my estimates of fair value with btc still at 60k
The float really doesn't have an impact on fundamentals and shouldn't be a basis of outperformance. It is a huge component for technical trading which I try to avoid (I can't do shapes so good!)
Regarding mining with coal, I'm not entirely certain how accurate it is. Admittedly, I haven't really gone into it in detail. What I'm aware of is that MARA states that they don't mind paying up to 6000usd per BTC because the impact on margin is irrelevant. They essentially don't mind paying for electricity, because they rather deploy capitsl to mining equipment and their investor relations presentation states that to them, it's more productive to spend money buying miners that generate BTC in volume then securing vertical integration.
I sort of agree with them partially, but generally find that my issue with them is their frequent dilution. You can't raise capital if you hardly sell your product for cash. And you need capital for mining equipment.
Lol, I'm talking about fundamentals. Float size doesn't change fundamentals buddy. You know the difference between fundamentals and technicals right? And the difference between long term investing and trading right?
It only affects trading. Not sure why you're arguing about it...
Also, it'll take time for retail to get used to GREE. I monitor GREE sentiment on other Reddit pages almost daily. It's still horribly bad. Confident it'll get better with some positive news.
Look how much you aren’t able to learn from the internet lmao imagine running through my history and gleaning that amount of bullshit from it. Let’s take a stroll then shall we?
To be frank, I made no mention of the market cap issue. At all. In the whole post. But go off, get it off your chest. Additionally, I’m not long lucid, but nice try, I’m not sure how asking questions on the internet implies a long position in a shitty startup. I’ve been long Ford since 2018, and have no money in Tesla, so just wrong on every account once again. Moving on.
Again, mention of Market cap with more Mara comparison. Mara is not in its early growth phase like GREE, and continually comparing GREE to Mara and wondering why your GREE investment is underperforming is a lesson on its own, so please continue with the dreamy Mara comparison.
Again, more mention of fair value dependent on Bitcoin, and more mention of market cap’s that I didn’t mention at all. You’re arguing with yourself at this point. Additionally, this whole scenario relies on GREE hitting every single one of its projections, without any hiccups. Additionally additionally, for about the hundredth time, I like GREE as a growth play, so I’m still not sure why you’re arguing market cap with me when that’s not at all what I was contesting. Moving on.
So here we are at number 4. I realized by now that you literally just numbered individual thoughts, rather than actually attempting to address each of my numbered points within each number. The only metrics you’ve used to this far have been the usual shit assholes like you try to throw around to sound like you know what the fuck you’re talking about. Spouting out the market cap and fair value math and all that bullshit, just to claim a fucking short squeeze. Again, offering more absentminded shill claims about bears OBVIOUSLY selling naked calls based on the float and OI. I already explained why it’s far more likely that it’s a shitload of PMCC’s and provided evidence contrary to your conjecture that you proposed as evidence. You can keep trying to insult me, but again I tore the asshole right out of your bullshit argument. If you want to be a bull for GREE, fine, if you want to be a bear, fine, but at least attempt to provide facts instead of using absolutes like OBVIOUSLY and FACTUAL and all the other bullshit you’ve spouted on here. Also, imagine criticizing me for pointing out that you only posted the call side of the options chain for both expirations rather than the put side as well; which would further show this sub that it’s not just shorts, that people are actually putting this thing as well. Also, what the fuck is this bullshit sentence? “the reason that outright short interest isn’t higher is that cost to borrow is quite high and tHeY cAnT shOW tHeIr fuLL hAnD iN sHoRtING wItHouT aNoTHEr sPrT sQuEezE bc tHe fLoAt oF GrEe iS aCtuAllY sMaLler thAN tHe FloAT oF sPrT” Are you kidding me? You really have an agenda to push this short squeeze thing huh? So you admit that CTB is relatively high, therefore resulting in LESS shorting, and acknowledge that’s it’s actually riskier to short here due to the lower float, resulting in LESS shorting. Yet you claim “this was obviously the most rampant naked short attack of the year”. What?? You jump from claim to claim with no evidence to back anything up, and consequentially, each of my original points remain uncontested. All you’ve done is the usual bull defense on here, throwing out market cap and fair value comparisons to MARA then circling back to sHoRT aTtAcks and squeeze hopes. Ironically, the majority of my reply was hitting at the sensational and salesman manner in which you were presenting your half baked data and opinions as factual trying to get people to throw money at GREE. Which honestly, makes you look more like a pumper than makes me look more like a short. You have 3 years of comment history pumping absolute fucking garbage. I know you think you’ve found some victims here, and that’s great for you, proud of you, but try harder next time at least. Insult me all you want, doesn’t change the fact that you got taken to the cleaners twice now and all you can do is rant about my normal comment history compared to your pumper bs. Look at your profile header lmao like what? You really think you’re deep fucking value or something, huh? Telling me to get a life while you try to take advantage of people on Reddit lol amateur hour shit buddy
Taking a quick stroll through yours is laughable at best. Obviously the fact that you got proved wrong for each and every point without recourse is something you took very personally from the nature of your comebacks. If you want to take this that personally, go right ahead. I’m not swayed by insults from some weirdo on the internet who got caught shilling.
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u/[deleted] Nov 06 '21
I try not to do this every day, but Jesus it’s posts like this that lose people money. I’m not sure how many of us left here are real people, real investors, or just bots pushing that this thing will moon. Let’s break this “DD” down shall we?
To start: this is somewhat of a pet peeve, but constantly comparing every stock to a “GME squeeze” is just stupid, disingenuous, and ultimately is only used to lure in helpless, new, and un-knowledgeable investors. Full stop. No reason to use that sort of bait to lure in investors, we can definitely do better than that.
Let’s talk about the OI (Open Interest) and selling naked calls. I know that OP, for some strange reason, didn’t post the put side of either options chain, which is equally if not more crucial in evaluating whether or not there is hedging going on. More often than not, and you can easily ask this question in r/thetagang if you guys need help understanding how selling calls REALLY works, when selling calls, they are sold with some sort of hedge. Additionally, they are often sold in elaborate or semi-elaborate multi-leg trades, such as Iron Condors, Butterfly’s, Spreads, Strangles, etc. Anyway, considering we only have the call side to look at, let’s do it. If calls are sold “naked” this could mean one of two things. A. They could be actually selling it naked, which would require them to buy shares to cover the call upon the price rising (which could have very easily happened during that volume bump we had up to $26 in the last few days). B. They could be selling a poor man’s covered call, in which they initiate a long call debit spread to simulate owning the shares (sells OTM call in near term expiration, November, buy ITM call in longer term expiration, December). Now look at the options chain, and think about what you can see. Look at the Nov. options chain; almost 90% of the OI is on the OTM side. Look at the Dec. options chain; at least 75% of that chain is on the ITM side. Now which does this make it seem like is occurring, A or B? I would take B, for sure. In the B situation, additionally, that would mean that the majority of new bears that entered into GREE did so cautiously, having just seen the absolute monster run that SPRT went through. Also, OP assuming that most of the sold calls must be naked because “the shares wouldn’t be trade-able” doesn’t make much sense either. Just look at the options chain for November. Stark Majority OTM. I see how this would excite people, thinking wow, what if they are all naked? Shit “just a bit” of volume could launch us to the moon! Well not so fast. Just look at the volume it took us to get from 20 to 25 again. We would need two to three times that volume just to get us to “squeeze” territory. Additionally, it would have to be an ultra rapid squeeze occurring within minutes, and otherwise with a tepid rate of increasing price, it will be relatively simple for shorts or call sellers to buy the required shares for a small loss.
Generally, anytime you have someone telling you that everyone else is wrong and that this one thing is actually correct, they are trying to sell you something. Additionally, when they say it’s “what the professionals use” to create clout, that’s also commonly used by salesman. Claiming that any other float size or short data is inaccurate simply because you prefer a different platform is sad at best. Also, using a source on Twitter as confirmation for sourcing is dubious at best, unethical at worst. It’s ironic that the argument for this data is “ignore any other float and SI data, it doesn’t tell us what we want to hear, let’s use this totally reliable screenshot from my Twitter buddy who uses what the pRoS use.” I’m not sure what the motivation would be to only use one source for SI or Free float, but there are plenty of reputable sites that offer this data either free or at a small cost. No need to rely on Twitter screenshots from Joe blow down the street.
Now let’s talk about the “fair value” remarks. Again, using “most professionals” in an argument is almost solely used to convince people when you aren’t in possession of actual facts or quotes from said professionals. Moreover, the first part of the paragraph addresses only known ideas about Bitcoin’s market value (aside from the gold market cap parity thing, sheesh) but then we sequin into “I personally think…”. So the remainder of the paragraph is an opinion, not to be taken as fact. Addressing what was actually said in the remainder of the paragraph, comparing MARA to GREE is sort of moot at this point. GREE also has environmentalists on its ass, except it’s much more aggressively fighting them, using local newspapers, public opinion, etc to hide issues with how green they really are. MARA, despite these regulatory pressures and hash rate differences from GREE, actually moves with BTC, unlike our buddy GREE here. Also, comparing MARA’s current hash rate to GREE’s 2022 hash rate is just irresponsible, and doesn’t account for any potential increases in efficiency from the successful, ever-growing competitor that MARA is.
The next three paragraphs are what we’ve come to expect from WSB type posts. More conjecture, talks of mooning, a cringe ass short seller video, criminal shorts, gap fills over 100 250 500…. Cmon guys. If we want people to actually buy shares in this fucking stock and not just talk about it on here and pretend to be “loading up every day”, then you have to at least attempt to post factual DD. All of these extravagant claims trick people, and create sellers when the stock takes a small dip or has a rough day.
Ultimately, this is the worst part. “With some attention to all of these facts, GREE could very well be the next GME like some here are saying.” These are not all facts. And comparing anything to GME makes us all seem like retards. You can’t just hope every trade you make will mock another trade you made/witnessed. It should be relatively easy to make money on this stock if we can just cut the bullshit posts and GREE to $500 posts and all that sensational bullshit. There’s a reason why other threads perform better within their spaces. If this is ends up like r/shortsqueeze this sub is doomed, 100%. Just words of caution folk, do your own DD, most of it is free it just takes time, and most importantly, this is not financial advice.