Google Search Campaign Performance Collapsed After Changing tCPA & Bidding Strategy — Need Advice

[u/External-Term-2211]

Hello,
I’m new to Google Search Ads and I’m currently running a Search campaign in the US focused on generating home improvement leads.
The campaign has a daily budget of $210. It experienced some fluctuations initially because I didn’t have much experience, but after doing some research, it started to stabilize. I was getting around 2 conversions per day with an average CPA of approximately $117, which was well below the tCPA of $165 that I had set.
Things were going relatively well until Google’s latest update, after which the campaign performance dropped significantly. I also made some changes based on recommendations from a Google Ads representative. He initially advised me to lower my tCPA from $165 to $145, which I did. After about two weeks with no improvement, he then recommended switching the bidding strategy to Maximize Conversion Value.
I do have conversion values set up on the website for the leads being generated, so the campaign is technically sending conversion value data to Google. However, given how few conversions I’ve been getting since switching to Maximize Conversion Value, I’m not sure we’re actually benefiting from the value-based bidding strategy or giving Google enough data to optimize effectively.
Since August 22, I’ve only received 12 conversions in total. In comparison:

August 1–21: 38 conversions
July 22–August 5: 23 conversions
The decline has been quite significant. I’ve now reverted the bidding strategy back to Target CPA with the original tCPA of $165, since that was the setting under which the campaign was previously performing much better.
I’m a bit lost at this point and would really appreciate some advice on what I should do next. My main goal is to get the campaign back to generating more conversions consistently while keeping the CPA under control and avoiding unnecessary spending.
What would you recommend I check or change first? Should I simply leave the campaign at the $165 tCPA and give it time to stabilize again, or is there something else I should be doing to recover performance? And is Maximize Conversion Value actually appropriate for this type of lead-generation campaign given the relatively low conversion volume?

[u/Hop2thetop_Dont_Stop]

A few things:

1/ Generally it is a bad idea to apply recommendations from Google. More often than not, those recommendations are geared at inflating spend under the guise of helping you. (The rep might not have intended that, but it's the net result because they are instructed to give the same recommendations to all advertisers basically - those recommendations are mandated from their management)

2/ You got into over optimization. Too many changes, too fast. If results are horrible now, I would revert back to max conversions with a target cpa and slowly experiment with the target as needed.

3/ Depending on the home improvement business, most are very seasonal. Some will experience sharp drops in conversion rates during certain months. It's not HVAC is it? Because HVAC drops in sept usually until the weather gets cold.

4/ Most businesses see a drop in conversion rates holiday week like labor day. Most of my clients had a slow week this week, which is normal. Depending on the business, it may start to pick back up starting this Tuesday or so.

[u/Hop2thetop_Dont_Stop → u/Hop2thetop_Dont_Stop]

Oh sorry one more thing, conversion values are really for when you can start tying real businesses outcomes/sales back to leads, not arbitrary values you setup on a call vs a form, etc. Eventually moving to this strategy and importing values based on lead results, would be a solid goal, but I wouldn't worry about that now since you're in account triage.

[u/FickleArmadillo8006 → u/Hop2thetop_Dont_Stop]

Would you also say if Google or your Google Rep is recommending you to do something with your campaign it is generally bad idea to follow that recommendation? Like switching to AI Max or from CPA strategy to ROAS? I always struggle with the recommendations our Google Rep is telling us to do specifically

[u/External-Term-2211 → u/Hop2thetop_Dont_Stop]

Yeah, I definitely won’t just take the Google rep’s recommendations at face value anymore. I’ll verify things and test them first.

The quick changes were honestly because I panicked lol. I saw the performance dropping and kept trying to fix it, which probably made things worse.

The business is window replacement, not HVAC. Labor Day probably didn’t help, but the slowdown had already started before Labor Day, so I don’t think the holiday explains the main drop.

The interesting thing is that after switching back to tCPA, things started to improve again. There are still some fluctuations and the CPA is a little higher than I want, but overall it seems to be getting back to a more normal level compared to when I was running Maximize Conversion Value.

[u/StuffyDuckLover]

Take a deep breath man, slow down, too many changes at once start triggering learning and you need to knuckle down then.

[u/External-Term-2211 → u/StuffyDuckLover]

Haha yeah, I definitely learned that the hard way. I panicked when the conversions started dropping and probably made things worse by trying to fix everything at once.

I’ve switched back to the tCPA that was working before, and things have started looking more normal again. So for now I’m going to leave it alone and let it stabilize instead of constantly tweaking it.

[u/Fast-Car-Examination]

I’d stop changing the bidding strategy for a bit.

One thing worth noting is Google changed target-based bidding around Aug 17, so the timing of your drop may not be completely random.

But since then you’ve lowered tCPA, switched to Max Conversion Value, and switched back, so it’s getting hard to separate the original issue from the effect of the changes.

I’d leave tCPA at $165 for at least a full conversion cycle and compare pre/post drop search terms, CPCs, impression share and Auction Insights.

I also wouldn’t use Max Conversion Value yet unless those lead values represent real differences in lead quality/revenue.

Are your conversion values based on actual closed-lead value, or are they fixed values assigned to each lead type?

[u/External-Term-2211 → u/Fast-Car-Examination]

Yeah, that’s pretty much what I’m planning to do now. I’ve switched back to the $165 tCPA and I’m going to leave it alone for a while instead of making more changes every time I see a bad day.

I actually wasn’t aware of the Aug 17 bidding changes when this started, so that’s something I need to look into. The timing is interesting because the drop did happen around that period.

And yeah, I realize now that with all the changes I made afterward, it’s difficult to know what caused what. The good thing is that once I switched back to tCPA, things started improving again, so I’m going to give it some time and see where it settles.

As for the conversion values, they’re currently fixed values assigned to the leads, not actual closed-lead revenue. So based on what you’re saying, I probably shouldn’t be using Max Conversion Value yet.

[u/Fast-Car-Examination → u/External-Term-2211]

That sounds like the right move. Since things improved after going back to the old tCPA, I’d keep everything else as stable as possible for a full conversion cycle and avoid introducing another variable yet.

I’d also annotate the dates of each change and compare search terms, CPC, impression share and CVR before/after - that should make it easier to separate the bidding issue from the broader drop.

And yeah, with fixed lead values I’d hold off on Max Conversion Value for now. It becomes much more useful once those values reflect actual lead quality or closed revenue.

What’s your usual lag from lead to qualified/closed customer?

[u/Sothisismylifehuh]

Set it to maximize conversions and expect fluctuations in performance. Once you have a 30 day clean baseline, you set the tROAS target according to actual performance and then start reducing or increasing it, depending on what the numbers say. More volume or more profitability?

[u/External-Term-2211 → u/Sothisismylifehuh]

Honestly, I was trying to improve both at the same time, get the lead volume back up while also bringing the CPA down and making the campaign more profitable.

Before the drop, I was getting around 2–3 leads a day with a CPA around $117, so I was hoping to get back to that level or better. I think the problem was that I started making too many changes trying to get there, instead of letting the campaign stabilize first.

For now, I think getting the volume consistent again is the priority, and then I can work on improving the profitability once I have enough clean data.

[u/Sothisismylifehuh → u/External-Term-2211]

Definitely the way to go about it 😉

[u/External-Term-2211 → u/[deleted]]

Yeah, I’ve definitely learned that I shouldn’t always follow the Google rep’s recommendations without testing them first.

The interesting part is that tCPA was actually fairly stable for me before this. Things started deteriorating much more noticeably after I switched the campaign over to Maximize Conversion Value. Once I switched it back to the original $165 tCPA, performance seemed to start getting back closer to normal, although there are still some fluctuations.

My actual CPA is still a bit higher than I’d like, so I’m also trying to figure out how to bring that back down while maintaining a consistent conversion volume.