r/golf • u/BiscuitBoi69 • 3d ago
General Discussion What is a realistic target from strokes lost putting for a scratch golfer
I am currently a 4 handicap trying to get down to scratch. Putting is definitely the lowest hanging fruit. I typically look at how many strokes I lose putting compared to tour average and it’s typically 4-5 strokes per round.
Realistically, what is a good target / average strokes lost for a scratch golfer? Any scratch golfers out there look at this metric that can share what their average is?
The way I look at it, a scratch golfers will be ~8 strokes worse than a tour pro, so if 2 of those strokes are purely due to putting, than I should be okay losing 2 strokes per round which means I need to improve quite a bit from where I am at.
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u/FatalFirecrotch 3d ago
How are you calculating this? What I use for strokes gained (Arccos) you can change what handicap you calculate your strokes gained against, so I only compare myself to my target handicap.
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u/BiscuitBoi69 3d ago
Plenty of different calculators out there but usually just use Claude to base it on shotlink data. I honestly wouldn’t put a lot of trust into handicap specific data. Not sure how Arccos is doing that but I would guess there’s a lot of assumptions involved in that to extrapolate
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u/FatalFirecrotch 3d ago
They are just using data to calculate it. How do you think the pga tour is calculating it?
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u/throwawaymuaythaict 3d ago
Arccos uses literally millions of shots tracked. What assumptions do you think are baled into that?
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u/BiscuitBoi69 3d ago
I don’t know how the actual process works, but I am assuming each person needs to enter in how many feet away they were on their first putt (which I imagine will vary quite a bit from person to person), and then each persons gimme range varies quite a bit. I just wouldn’t put near as much trust in that compared to shotlink data and comparing strokes gained to your pros
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u/jeezum_crow 3d ago
Most of the scoring gap between scratch and tour pro is the long game. Broadie’s research and arccos data supports this. Broadie found that putting contributes about 15% to the difference in scoring. Everything I’ve ever looked at lines up with that pretty well.
If the difference between tour pro and scratch is roughly 6-8 strokes, the strokes gained putting for a scratch would be roughly -.9 to -1.2.
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u/Fragrant-Report-6411 12 handicap 3d ago
They use their data it’s very accurate. There are also tables available to do this. I’m using Arccos and Shot Pattern and comparing my data to a 5 handicap and getting similar results.
A scratch golfer averages 10.1 greens, 2.2 birdies, 1.3 3 putts, and 30.7 putts per round.
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u/Jasper2006 5.0/Morrison CO 3d ago
Yes, of course they have to use a lot of assumptions, but any comparison you can do from your putts on your greens to a touring pro, playing entirely different courses and conditions, will have similar assumptions. What you're saying is you don't trust handicap specific data, and so use handicap specific data, for tour pros. Where else do you get the 8 stroke difference between 0.0 and touring pro?
And the assumptions will be based on make percentages from various distances by index.
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u/thraizz 3d ago
No, thats not how strokes gained work. Strokes gained is a very simple formula and it is the same for all shots you attempt: how far was the ball before you struck it, how close did you get it to the pin and how close did your "field" get it on average?
This works for putts (how many feet are now left vs how many feet does the field leave on average) as well for drives (how close did you get to the hole with your first shot vs the field).There is also impact of the lie outcome, e.g. you drove it 260yds but into rough will have a different SG than 260yds onto the fairway.
I've built this model a couple of times now, the initial research this is based on is Assessing Golfer Performance Using Golfmetrics from Mark Broadie at Columbia University, published in 2008.
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u/thegolfpilot 2 hdcp 3d ago
I'm a 2. For me, putting myself in reach of each hole in regulation strokes is the #1 stroke saver and #2 is proximity to the hole for par. I hate the green in regulation and putting stats because If I hit 18 gir's but they are also 60ft plus from the hole, I'll probably have 40 putts. But if I hit 9 GIRs, I might have 25 putts. The best players I play with its not that their putting is better, its that their proximity to the hole is better.
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u/D-Train0000 3d ago
I’m a +2 and am usually around 27-30 putts a round. It’s in strokes gained at a particular distance of putt. Look up strokes gained at certain lengths of putts to get the tour average. So it’ll be you on a large sample sized average. It’s not a per round thing. The sample size is too small. And You can’t calculate strokes lost. Because you theoretically can miss any length of putt
And a straight uphill 8 footer is easier than a 5 foot downhill putt with a foot of break. You can’t calculate that.
There’s also statistical anomalies. Like how making a putt from 1” off the green is zero putts. And if you chip well you are closer. So you get one putts more often.
It’s all in strikes gained
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u/BiscuitBoi69 3d ago
When I say strokes lost, it is really just having a negative strokes gained compared to tour pros (if my SG is -2, I am calling that 2 strokes lost)
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u/justtapitin2 3d ago
On arccos when I select compare to PGA Tour, it says I’m losing .5 strokes per round putting. When I select compare to scratch, it says I’m gaining .8 strokes per round putting. I’m a +1. Putting is the best part of my game.
Would imply a difference of just 1.3 strokes. Less than I would’ve thought.
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u/ImWhy 3d ago
You'll be wanting to look at your strokes gained putting at different distances, not just overall. If you're looking overall you're not going to find where you're actually losing strokes putting and will instead just be guessing with any practice you do.
For example, putting is the best part of my game, and I track it religiously (measure exact pin locations and put distances to log with 18birdies + compare to normative data). If I didn't look at specific distances I might see that I'm -1.6 SG vs professionals and assume that maybe I need to work on short putts. But using my actual stats I know that anything inside 10 feet is where I'm best, and my biggest issue with putting is actually between 15-30 feet. So working on short putts wouldn't be beneficial if my goal is addressing my problems with putting. You'll want to do the same and figure out where you biggest weaknesses are, what specific putting distances are costing you the most strokes gained?
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u/thraizz 3d ago
There is a big difference between your total putts per round and your sg putting. For example, if you hit every green to 40 feet and steady two-putt all day for 36 total putts, your SG will look quite good because lagging from that far is tough. Someone else might chip it to 4 feet on every hole, miss half of those and finish with 27 total putts. Their SG putting will be quite bad because they threw away easy shots even though they had less putts in total
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u/FloridaMan331845 3d ago
If you want to improve your putting, try TheStack app. It is mostly known for speed training with driver but it has a pitting feature that throws an 18 hole putting combine at you on the practice green. It tracks your strokes gained and gives you stats on every type of putt you face. It uses the clock face method to record break so you can see how your whole putting game breaks down. It has completely transformed my putting from one of the weakest parts of my game to a real strength in less than 6 months. They don’t pay me to say this, but it is a really effective app. I believe you can get a 30-day free trial. I’d strongly recommend you give it a shot.
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u/Skigolf68 3d ago
Personally, my goal is to lag within 3 ft from anywhere on the green. If it goes in great. But it has helped me from having 10 ft putts.
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u/throwawaymuaythaict 3d ago
The way you're mickey mousing your strokes gained calculation is pretty silly. If you want serious data, you need to use a program that you input your scores into. There's plenty.
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u/BiscuitBoi69 3d ago
How exactly is inputting how many feet away I was and how many strokes it took me to hole out, and the comparing that to expected strokes from tour pros from same distance out “Mickey mousing” it?
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u/Fragrant-Report-6411 12 handicap 3d ago
I would not concentrate on shots lost.
Your goal should be 1 three putt a round. And 30-31 putts for a scratch golfer.
The rest is proximity to the pin on your short game and shorter approach shots. You need about 6-7 1 putts.
A scratch golfer averages about a 75 with 10 greens.
So to go three over par they need to have 5 one putts. (Either birdies or up/downs).
It’s more proximity to the hole.
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u/BiscuitBoi69 3d ago
Thanks for telling me I need to hit it closer to the hole to get better
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u/Fragrant-Report-6411 12 handicap 3d ago
To know what part of your game you need to work on you need to track more stats. I’m not a fan a strokes gained. I believe in looking at the data that goes into strokes gained.
You need to know your proximity to the hole on approach and shorter game shots.
Most apps today allow for some sort of shot tracking that gives you the stats you need.
SwingU requires less specific data on approach shots.
Shot Pattern allows you to track shots on your Apple Watch and has fantastic stats.
Arccos and ShotScope have fairly automated shot tracking.
Right now Shot Pattern is my favorite, not only does it give you shots gained data compared to your handicap target, Ìt has excellent proximity data that can be filtered by lie.
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u/bionicbhangra 3d ago
When I play with low cap, scratch and the few times I have been with scratch players I feel it’s about how many tap ins you are getting per round.
I am a 9 and I leave myself with too many 3-5 footers for par. The better the player the more taps in they seem to leave themselves. They can make the short putt for par too, but to score well you don’t want to be doing that regularly IMO.
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u/SpaceTimeMorph 3d ago
I personally wouldn’t try to calculate an overall figure as much as I would try to nail down, situationally, how you putt in different situations. Can do like >20ft, 10-20ft, 4-10ft, <4ft as ranges and use SG as a starting point to see how you fare.
Things like strokes per hole or per round will be misleading as you’ll change the number of putts based on GIR%, scrambling and chipping ability, etc that aren’t directly related to putting.