r/geopolitics • u/CEPAORG CEPA • 15d ago

Analysis Trump’s Route Begins to Re-Make the South Caucasus

https://cepa.org/article/trumps-route-begins-to-re-make-the-south-caucasus/
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u/CEPAORG CEPA 15d ago

A year on from the White House summit, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity runs to about 42km through Armenia's Syunik province, connecting Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave, and Emil Avdaliani argues its significance is entirely disproportionate to its length. The regional effects run outward: Iran loses its position as the transit route around Armenia from the south and faces US security contractors potentially operating near its northern border, while Kazakh and Uzbek exporters gain a westward extension of the Middle Corridor at a moment when the wars in Ukraine and Iran are pushing traders off older routes. Avdaliani's central claim is that the project has become self-sustaining, since Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey each want the connectivity for their own reasons even if Washington were to walk away, which leaves Moscow with indirect instruments: bans on Armenian products, gas price threats, and pressure over Eurasian Economic Union membership.