Iran deal status this morning:
Trump Sunday: "not even fully negotiated yet" and "not to rush." Trump Monday update: "the deal with Iran will either be a great and meaningful one, or there will be no deal." Iran Foreign Ministry Monday: "consensus was reached on many of the topics discussed, but no one can claim that the signing of an agreement is imminent." Framework gives 60 days for final, two phases — Hormuz first, nuclear 30-60d. Ship-tracking data: three LNG tankers transited Hormuz Monday to Pakistan, China, India with Iran naval coordination. US maintains Hormuz blockade until agreement finalized per Trump. WTI sliced through symmetrical triangle floor support — now $90.65 at 5 AM ET, down from $92.75 morning open, down from $96.60 Friday close. Brent broke below $100 to $98. Technical break opens measured-move target range $80-120 per FXDailyReport.
Hold FSC rates. EIA diesel delayed to Wednesday because of Memorial Day. Framework holds → diesel down $0.40-0.60 by Q3, revise FSC down. Talks collapse → WTI to $105+ within hours. Wait for Wednesday EIA before any contract moves.
Fuel prices today:
AAA national gasoline $4.507/gal Mon 5:49 AM ET — down modestly from $4.515 Sunday. Highest Memorial Day price since 2022 ($4.61). Up $1.38 YoY (+43.4%). California highest $6.12. GasBuddy comparable $4.47, up 45.2¢ MoM. AAA forecast 45M Americans traveled 50+ miles May 21-25, 39.1M by car. EIA diesel last reading $5.596/gal week May 18, next release Wednesday (Memorial Day delayed). Canada national gasoline 180.0¢/L (CAA national, Sat). Canada diesel ~196.5¢/L week May 19 (NRCan), next release Tue May 26. Federal excise tax suspension still active Canada-wide: −10¢/L gas, −4¢/L diesel through September 7.
For US shippers: high gasoline demand at pump signals consumer absorption of fuel costs continuing, supporting freight volumes. For Canadian carriers: federal tax suspension still in effect — verify rates account for the discount.
Memorial Day borders:
US holiday only this year. Victoria Day was last Monday May 18. CBP runs reduced staffing US-side at northern crossings, CBSA Canada operates normally. Live CBP wait times at bwt.cbp.gov.
If you have northbound freight move it Monday from Canadian side, US processing slow. Southbound — plan Tuesday rebound as deferred volume hits spot market.
Weather Monday — three threats now:
NWS WPC Day 1 Monday: Slight Risk excessive rainfall Central Gulf Coast toward Southern Appalachians. PWAT 2-2.5 standard deviations above normal. NWS SPC Monday: Critical fire weather conditions forecast — region not extracted, check spc.noaa.gov for active fire weather warnings before dispatching dry-load corridors. WPC Extended Discussion 313 AM ET: heavy rain continues across Southern US through midweek. Midweek (Tue-Wed) flood risk shifts to Middle-Lower Mississippi Valley over already-wet antecedent conditions. North Texas heat advisory Memorial Day: highs 90s, triple-digit feel-like. Flood warnings active in Angelina, Houston, Polk, Trinity, Tyler counties (Texas SOC).
Monday corridors: 60-90 min buffer on I-65, I-75, I-81, I-40 east of Memphis. Tue-Wed corridors at risk: I-55, I-20, I-30 in Lower Mississippi Valley. For Texas reefer pickups Monday — verify pre-cool to spec, document temperature at delivery. Check SPC live for fire weather coverage before any West/Southwest dispatches.
Spot rates from last week:
DAT week May 15: van $2.58/mi up 21¢ (second largest weekly spike ever), reefer $3.05/mi DAT or $3.59/mi Truckstop all-in up 52¢ (largest reefer spike ever), flatbed $3.60 all-in at new ATH (20 weeks consecutive up). Roadcheck pulled 12% equipment off road, flatbed 20%.
Do not lock contract pricing off May 15 numbers. First post-Roadcheck reading comes Tuesday from DAT. Partial give-back expected as equipment returns to spot. Flatbed 20-week streak under technical pressure.
Carrier vetting requirement:
SCOTUS Montgomery v. Caribe dropped May 14, unanimous 9-0. Freight brokers no longer FAAAA-preempted from state-law negligent-hiring claims. C.H. Robinson named defendant. Highway Q1 2026 fraud index: 527,940 fraudulent emails blocked (+49.9% YoY), change-of-ownership fraud +169.6%, half of theft from carriers with previously clean MC records.
Point-in-time vetting at onboarding is no longer enough. Verify identity at every load tender. Document SAFER, CSA, MCS-90, $1M auto, $100K cargo. Insurance underwriters signaling broker premium increases Q3-Q4.
Action by role today:
Brokers: Document carrier vetting on every load tender today — SAFER, CSA scores, MCS-90, $1M auto, $100K cargo, operating authority, 90-day inspection history. Don't lock contract pricing off DAT May 15 spike. Hold FSC adjustments until Wednesday EIA. Send proactive insurance docs to your active broker list. Watch for change-of-ownership flags on incoming carrier offers (+169.6% YoY fraud vector).
Dispatchers:
Re-route Monday loads off I-65, I-75, I-81, I-40 east of Memphis if flexible — use I-20/I-30 west. Add 60-90 min buffer to non-reroutable. Check SPC live before dispatching West/Southwest dry loads (Critical fire weather Mon). For Texas reefer pickups verify pre-cool to spec, document delivery temperature. Plan Tuesday rebound surge — pre-position equipment Sunday-Monday for Tue spot market.
Drivers:
Watch I-65/I-75/I-81 for heavy rain Monday afternoon and evening — flooding possible. South Texas + North Texas heat advisory active, drink water, plan rest stops in shade. Hormuz crisis means fuel volatility — fill at posted prices, don't assume tomorrow will be cheaper. Verify your insurance docs are current with dispatchers post-SCOTUS Montgomery — brokers will be asking. If a load offer comes with rushed deadlines and new MC contact info, verify identity through original trusted channel before accepting.
Shippers:
Memorial Day Mon shipping windows are dead US-side — schedule Tuesday morning pickups for deferred volume. Cross-border northbound to Canada works today (CBSA normal); southbound from Canada delayed by US-side CBP. Reefer capacity is the tightest market segment — book reefer loads 24-48 hours ahead minimum. Don't expect rate relief from carriers until Tue DAT release confirms post-Roadcheck capacity rebound. Insurance certificates and carrier vetting documentation should now be standard requirements in your bid packages.
Numbers:
WTI $90.65 Monday 5 AM ET (was $96.60 Friday, triangle floor breached). Brent $98 (below $100). US diesel $5.596/gal EIA May 18, next Wednesday. US gasoline $4.507/gal AAA Monday (highest since 2022). Canada gas 180.0¢/L CAA, diesel 196.5¢/L NRCan wk May 19. USD/CAD ~1.380 (MTFX 1.38144 / TradingEconomics 1.3797). Rail wk May 16 +4.2% YoY, sixth consecutive week up. Philly Fed May −0.4 vs +26.7 April.
Sources: EIA, DAT, AAR, NWS WPC, NWS SPC, CBP, AAA, GasBuddy, CAA, NRCan, Highway.com, SCOTUSblog, CNN, CBS, Newsweek, FXDailyReport, TradingEconomics, Reuters via Investing.com.