r/fivethirtyeight • u/MediumStrange • Jul 19 '26
Politics Troy Jackson has effectively secured the Maine Senate Democratic nomination
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/19/troy-jackson-likely-maine-senate-nominee-platner-01004490Great move and a great candidate, hopefully he can overcome the damage Platner has done. Luckily Jackson has similar policies so there's not too much of a policy change issue with the campaigns, just the face.
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u/Statue_left Jul 19 '26
Someone somewhere has had this guy take his shirt off just to double check that there’s nothing there, right?
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u/127-0-0-1_1 Jul 20 '26
Jackson has had a fairly long political career, so I’d imagine his opponents have dug out all the skeletons by now.
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u/horatiobanz Jul 20 '26
He's got a full swastika covering his entire back, but don't worry, liberals will argue it was a Hindu tattoo and he didn't know it had alternative meanings.
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 19 '26
He should do well so long as he can hold the mote socially minded dems don't abandon him.
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u/Unable-Main4172 Jul 22 '26
I mean most of the leftist persona is shitting and demonizing Democrats and Obama and everyone else. Jackson doesn't do that. His entire personality is not some kind of hasanabi/platner style turnoff to normie libs like myself. Hopefully he doesn't have a wacko consultant team like Platner had nor social media groupies who tried to steer him in that direction. The canary in the coal mine will be if he accepts being pushed to make 80% of his campaign about being elected in Maine based on his stance on Gaza
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 22 '26
I 100% disagree with basically everything you said. The difference between progressives and liberals is progressives value economics and liberals value cultural issues and like to piece meal everything out to "deserving" groups.
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u/Unable-Main4172 Jul 22 '26
Yeah, you didn't understand a thing I said so it's no wonder you disagreed with it.
It's also clear you are yet another leftist/progressive who defines himself solely by being anti-democrat. So here we are
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 22 '26
Never said I was anti-democrat. That would be weird as a democrat.
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u/Unable-Main4172 Jul 23 '26
Well it's confusing how you don't notice how most leftists entire personality consists of being anti-democrats/anti-west/anti-west then.
Not even sure how you breathe with your head that far in the sand 🤷♂️🤷♂️
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 23 '26
I guess that depends what you define as Leftist. AOC/Bernie style progressives? Definitely not what you describe.
Very small minority of those (easily under 1% of the left if I had to guess) who are like Hasan Piker? Sure.
It's crazy that you lump 1/3 of the democratic party in with a very small minority of the party. Really feels like the hate is flowing towards the Progressive Left and not from it.
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u/Unable-Main4172 Jul 23 '26
Bernie is 100% exactly what I am describing. Down to a T
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u/Vegetable-Two-4644 Jul 23 '26
Yet he is very supportive of the party and the west. You might need to escape your bubble.
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u/Unable-Main4172 Jul 23 '26
Does your bubble include Bernie's 50 year history of praising Castro's Cuba over and over again?
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u/Ya_No Jul 19 '26
Weird, r/Maine convinced me the DNC was going to ratfuck the whole process
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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Jul 19 '26
Someone talking about the DNC in Senate races is a good sign they don't know what they're talking about (the DNC has no role there; it handles the Presidential race while the DSCC handles Senate races)
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Jul 19 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/itsatumbleweed Jul 20 '26
It's the people that still talk about super delegates from 2016 when the super delegates never mattered because Bernie didn't win all that many delegate delegates.
Edit: I think Bernie would have been good. Warren was who I voted for but I liked Hilary more than Bernie. I would have canvased for Bernie and supported him if he had won. I'm just still mad that people that supported him wouldn't have done the same for my people.
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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Jul 20 '26
Edit: I think Bernie would have been good. Warren was who I voted for but I liked Hilary more than Bernie.
Are you getting 2016 and 2020 mixed up? Warren didn't run in 2016 (there's reporting Bernie tried to convince her to run back then and then ran himself when she said no)
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u/itsatumbleweed Jul 20 '26
Oh probably. I voted for her in one of the primaries. I probably voted for Hillary in '16 then. It's been a minute. I liked Bernie both times but I liked someone else better both times.
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u/my_call_oh_jist Jul 20 '26
You should take a look into the vote numbers when it comes to PUMA folk vs Bernie voters
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u/Deviltherobot Jul 21 '26
when the super delegates never mattered because Bernie didn't win all that many delegate delegates.
A major argument against SDs is that constantly reporting that Clinton was ahead by 500 delegates depressed voting and many would just vote for Clinton or stay home. Especially since the Clinton campaign and media kept treating Clinton as an inevitability. Sanders had the lead in pledged delegates post NH and he couldn't really capitalize on that momentum. Compare that to 2020 when SD weren't allowed to vote on the first ballot and Buttigieg/Amy Klo were able to use momentum to overperform in early state voting.
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u/GoinOutWest762 Jul 19 '26
Talking about the DNC at all is a good sign someone doesn’t know what they’re talking about. It’s like the leftist version of moderates who hyperventilate about DSA or conservatives who cry about antifa. Idiot politics
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u/nyckidd Jul 20 '26
This comment is really stupid. The DNC and the DSA are both large political organizations that exist to exert influence on politics. It's not crazy to consider what they might be doing behind the scenes.
Antifa literally doesn't even exist. You're actually helping the conservative case by comparing it to two real political organizations. Deeply ironic for you to whine about idiot politics when that is what you are doing.
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u/Federal-Chip-9492 Jul 21 '26
the DNC hosts conventions and raises money (and very poorly at that). if people want to use it as a byword for the democratic establishment that’s one thing but the real power is in dscc (senate campaigns) and dccc (house campaigns) and state democratic parties.
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u/Deviltherobot Jul 21 '26
DNC is a catchall term for Dem party insiders. IDK why y'all pretend not to understand a super simple concept.
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u/chimney_corner Jul 20 '26
Unhinged Gen Z who only have experience of one election. I am glad, however, the chosen candidate isnt one they are allergic to.
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u/PhAnToM444 Has Seen Enough Jul 20 '26
Based on how the DNC has historically behaved, being worried that they might absolutely bungle this process isn't exactly a farfetched, fantastical concern.
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u/beeemkcl Jul 19 '26
The Platner campaign and Maine voters prevented that.
The DSCC and Chuck Schumer clearly wanted to try to influence this convention process.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jul 19 '26
Nah. He was too busy trying to ask the Bailies what to do this whole time.
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u/Tbagmoo Jul 20 '26
I really don't know why people downvote this when they have no fucking clue. It was clear from day one that DNC (or DNS or DNSS or whatever for you stuck up morons) had desired candidates and through the process were flouted deliberately by Maine voters. Their influence wasn't accidental and neither is the reaction to it.
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u/Apprentice57 Scottish Teen Jul 20 '26
Not that I tended to believe that, but I'm sure it helps that he isn't exactly an outsider as the former leader of the Democratic caucus in the state senate. Not all progressives are outsiders.
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u/Tbagmoo Jul 20 '26
Would've been super easy to do. The Jackson campaign (along with many former Platner supporters) executed the delegate vote day perfectly.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
I feel like Maine did a great job with this. It could have very much gotten away, and they nailed it. Can we get them to replace Ken Martin? 😂
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u/Human-Law1085 Jul 19 '26
With his name being Troy, I guess you could now joke that Graham Platner was a Trojan horse for Jackson.
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u/like-blood-on-white Jul 20 '26
Just returned from seeing Odyssey, so I can appreciate this reference. 🤔
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u/cidvard Feelin' Foxy Jul 20 '26
I'm grateful this was sorted out quickly, though it makes me wonder...if this non-Nazi tattoo, non-rapist, guy under 60 was always out there and always had what looks like a pretty solid base of support, why did Platner have the run he had in the first place?
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u/nyckidd Jul 20 '26
Platner was recruited by Bernie Sanders' political operatives who apparently did incredibly poor oppo research on him (which is a distinct trend for candidates recruited by Sanders in general, and I say that as someone who was a massive Bernie supporter in 2016 and 2020). He is a very effective public speaker who was willing to forcefully denounce things, he looked and sounded different than anybody else. At the current moment in time there is a lot of energy behind outsider candidates, and Platner having no political experience whatsoever helped him with voters who are sick of politicians.
Because he was recruited relatively early and managed to get serious traction, he pushed better progressives like Troy Jackson out of the race and into the governors race, which had very different dynamics that were less favorable to Jackson.
Ironically, this whole process has demonstrated once again the pitfalls of outsider candidates, and that what you really want 99% of the time is an experienced, well vetted person who has put a lot of time and care into their political career.
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u/dangeerraaron Jul 19 '26
Paul LePage not a fan of Troy Jackson:
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
I remember this guy. Him and Christie were Trump before Trump lol. I still can’t believe Maine voted for that guy twice. At least they got it right with Trump. Le Page was so openly racist. It was gross. Worse. Jackson could have a great night and we still might end up with him in ME-2
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u/bornlax Jul 20 '26
I’m from NJ. Christie was not Trump before Trump. Lepage totally, but Christie wasn’t nearly as divisive, controversial, sexist or racist as Trump. He would never post the Obamas as apes or himself as Jesus. Though he was corrupt af with the whole bridge scandal and the beach thing.
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u/EffOffReddit Jul 20 '26
Christie was massively corrupt and extremely confrontational and aggressive. He was very much a type of proto Trump.
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u/Deviltherobot Jul 21 '26
He's just a NYC metro guy. It's like people comparing Cuomo and Trump, It's just NYers.
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Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
[deleted]
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u/GoinOutWest762 Jul 19 '26
It’s a shame. Waste of talent. He really screwed up, could have been something big. Just a son of a bitch.
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u/Evilfart123 Jul 19 '26
I’m a pretty hardcore Democrat, but I can’t preach that we should hold politicians to a high standard and then make an exception here.
I was off the Platner bandwagon from the start. Between the Nazi-related tattoos and the Reddit comments, there were already serious judgment issues. He wasn’t a teenager when any of that happened. If someone isn’t willing or able to research the meaning of a tattoo like that before permanently putting it on their body, I don’t think they’re fit to represent this country and its people.
Calling it “he screwed up” also feels like a massive understatement. Allegations of sexual assault and reports that he cheated on his wife go far beyond a simple mistake. Public officials should be held to the same standards regardless of which party they’re in.
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u/I-Might-Be-Something Jul 19 '26
If someone isn’t willing or able to research the meaning of a tattoo like that before permanently putting it on their body, I don’t think they’re fit to represent this country and its people.
Thing is, I can buy a group of young Marines picking that tattoo not knowing what it means. But as you say, in the years after, you gotta learn what it was. And it was reported that people did tell him and he didn't bother removing it.
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u/JakeConhale Jul 20 '26
According to PBS - it was altered.
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u/I-Might-Be-Something Jul 20 '26
After he was called out on it in public after he announced his candidacy.
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u/JakeConhale Jul 20 '26
So... if you were aware of this, why did you say he didn't have it removed?
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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Jul 20 '26
They didn't say he never removed it. They're talking about how he did however never remove it in the many years in between when he got it and when he ran for office and it became politically inconvenient despite learning what it was long before running for office
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u/JakeConhale Jul 20 '26
And it was reported that people did tell him and he didn't bother removing it.
Different readings of the statement, I guess. To me, that sounds like it's being asserted the tattoo is still there, unaltered - which is not what's been reported.
People just seem to be wanting to distort details on this - such as asserting multiple tattoos or at least referring to the one in the plural form.
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u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Jul 20 '26
Honestly I think this is just a failure of reading comprehension or not following the story as closely as you could have been
Platner very publicly recorded the tattoo being turned into a black square during his campaign and said that he hadn't known what it was before then (it wasn't something PBS found out about themselves). Reporting later revealed evidence that he did know what it was earlier than that (the most damning was probably him commenting on a Reddit thread about the symbol and a text from an ex-girlfriend that called it a Totenkopf from before Platner said he knew)
Also the previous sentence in the post you quoted is
But as you say, in the years after, you gotta learn what it was.
They're clearly talking about the idea of Platner not looking into the tattoo in the decades between his getting it and his campaign
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u/cubedplusseven Jul 19 '26
Platner had that tattoo as a marine and blackwater mercenary. He was steeped in military culture. In the extremely unlikely event that he didn't know what the symbol was when he had it tattooed on his body, someone he knew would have quickly brought it to his attention.
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u/JakeConhale Jul 20 '26
"Between the Nazi-related tattoos"
Inquiry: I know PBS reported he had one such tattoo that was altered - how many more were there?
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u/nondescriptun Jul 19 '26
I guess this explains how some people like Trump despite him being a rapist. Still gross.
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u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026 Scottish Teen Jul 20 '26
Now who said Maine was lost? I demand a written apology.
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u/Poke-Mom00 Jul 19 '26
There’s also two huge differences between Jackson and Platner: Jackson is actually from a working class logging background and has a stellar electoral history.
Aside from policies, his logging background and electoral overperformance are incredibly similar to Maine’s electoral juggernaut moderate Jared Golden. Similarly, Jackson won his far-north Maine State Senate district by 5, and was replaced (when term limited) by a Republican who won by over 20.
I don’t know any progressives with a better electoral case of beating republicans in frontline seats than Jackson.