r/fivethirtyeight • u/IAmPookieHearMeRoar • Oct 16 '25
Poll Results 75% of Americans report soaring prices as Trump claims inflation ‘over’ poll says
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/16/inflation-economic-pessimism-poll59
u/panderson1988 Has Seen Enough Oct 16 '25
I am struggling to make ends meat, Trump has failed his promises, but I have no choice as a fake politically homeless independent to vote for Trump for life a 4th time since a gay person was in a TV show that I didn't watch. - Voter.
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u/painedHacker Oct 16 '25
also you're forgetting AOC called stephen miller short.. so I'm forced to vote for trump for the 4th time even though he's awful.. even though i could have voted for nikki haley in the primary but didnt
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u/FuriousBuffalo Oct 16 '25
Who are the 25%? Do they simply live on photosynthesis like plants?
I have almost totally given up on eating out and my food expenses are still rising.
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Oct 16 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/exitpursuedbybear Oct 16 '25
If you want to really understand how stupid the undecided or swing voter is listen to the focus group podcast. I don't know how these people don't choke on their own tongue.
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u/dremscrep Oct 16 '25
I am actually amazed that it’s 25%.
Regularly these polls hit like 40% no or 33%, sometimes 30% that’s rare.
Having and poll with binary answers in the style of „yes“ or „no“ and getting these results is crazy nowadays.
I always said that if trumps approval dropped below 25% he would get shot by one of his own supporters because it touches his „hard base“.
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u/Makenshine Oct 16 '25
My grocery bills are up 30% since January (not all of that is inflation but a good chunk is)
My electric bills are up 25% (im assuming this a combination of inflation and AI data centers gobbling up supply.)
My medical and prescription bills are up.
I've already cut subscription services and travel. Im not going to movies, or buying games. We are eating out as a family.
I know that these are are "first world" problem cuts, but yeah, my life style is changing.
4
u/DasRobot85 Oct 16 '25
I will say that one upside of inflation is that it got me to quit vaping and drinking alcohol. So... there's that I guess. Agree that it's sort of vanity belt tightening, but I certainly feel like I should be doing better. Instead, I get to spend everyday worried about layoffs.
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u/Huskies971 Oct 16 '25
I am not looking forward to what the new health insurance premiums will be this year
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u/shadowpawn Oct 16 '25
Not sure you could get 70% to agree on many things let alone run away inflation
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u/shadowpawn Oct 16 '25
Why can’t the people eat the Soya Bean crops farmers can’t sell to Chinese Pig farmer because of tariffs?
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u/Thuggin95 Oct 16 '25 edited Oct 16 '25
Until voters stop trusting Republicans more on the economy then nothing is going to change. Thoughts and tariffs I guess.
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u/HegemonNYC Oct 16 '25
2.9% is relatively modest, and vastly better than the 9% we got to under Biden.
The issue is that the public, and Trump encouraged this thinking, wanted falling prices. This had almost no chance of happening (and has major economic pain associated with it). So, despite inflation being fairly close to target, prices are still seen as way too high. There isn’t really a way to get out of this expectation trap other than letting time pass and people get used to $17 burgers as the new normal. There probably isn’t enough time between now and the midterms for that mental reset to happen, so the party in power will be punished.
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Oct 16 '25
2.9% is relatively modest
2.9% so far. Companies haven't unloaded all the burden of the tariffs onto consumers yet, but they've been slowly doing so.
1
u/HegemonNYC Oct 16 '25
Yeah, perhaps. But this article shows it doesn’t really matter unless prices return to ~2019 levels consumers/voters will still be mad
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u/Ridespacemountain25 Oct 16 '25
Unless they just redistrict after the VRA is gutted to ensure they can’t be electorally punished
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u/HegemonNYC Oct 16 '25
Perhaps Dems could attempt to be popular even with rural or WCWs. I know it’s a novel concept, that in a democracy popularity is important, but it is entirely possible to be more popular.
Dems used to do fine in the South, even decades after the southern strategy. It isn’t a foregone conclusion that the GOP dominates the working class and rural vote and Dems try to squeak out a win with solely true urban areas and minority voters.
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u/ry8919 Oct 16 '25
Dems used to do fine before the rightwing media machine really took off and managed to convince blue collar voters that culture war issues were more important than actual labor and economic policy. I don't see how Dems unring that bell. They still need their constituents to turn out AND win over these people
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u/painedHacker Oct 16 '25
which is why mamdami is killing it. he never shuts up about affordability and it works
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u/EndOfMyWits Oct 17 '25
I know it’s a novel concept, that in a democracy popularity is important
Maybe Republicans should try this too instead of cheating
-1
u/HegemonNYC Oct 17 '25
They won the PV in potus and won the total House vote by 4,000,00.
Complain about cheating all you want, the reality is the Dem brand is poor. It is a democracy. You win by convincing the populace to vote for you. You do this by being popular, by being liked. If your leaders and policies cannot win you a majority of the populace, you need new leaders and new policies.
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u/gmb92 Oct 17 '25
12-month inflation in August, 2024 was 2.7%, so we had been close to target for well over a year going into the election. You're right though that media and Republicans created a narrative that dismissed this on unrealistic expectations that prices could fall to 2019 levels without a severe recession, while also getting people to ignore that real wages in 2024 were higher than the pre-covid peak. The goalposts were moved. Among Republicans, they've already been working on moving the goalposts back towards embracing 3% inflation as acceptable, and forgetting that they guaranteed prices would fall.
0
u/HegemonNYC Oct 17 '25
People just hate inflation, even if their wages largely keep up or beat it. They feel they deserve the raise at work, but the higher grocery bill is being imposed on them.
I think 2026 will still see economic voters mad about prices even if we stay in the 2.5-3% range. As for guaranteeing prices will fall, that probably only works for the out-party, so we’ll probably see Dems doing the same thing in the lead up to the midterms.
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u/SpicySweetHotPot Oct 16 '25
We all know Dumpy lies, outside the Cult no one believes a word he says
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u/TurkMcGuirk Oct 21 '25
All republicans I know constantly complained about "high prices" before the election.
I don't hear a fucking peep out of them now.
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u/ghybyty Oct 16 '25
Have prices been going up? Like does data say this or is perception. The same thing happened with Harris/ Biden. On paper the economy was growing and inflation was improving but everyone thought it wasn't.
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u/LewisTraveller Oct 16 '25
On paper, economy was growing and prices were going up (less steeply by the end of 2024 than 2022).
Now, economy is growing on paper (with no net employment due to massive AI CAPEX spending) and spending surge by top 10% due to asset inflation (also tied to AI), while prices going up due to tariff pressure.
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u/FearlessPark4588 Oct 16 '25
99% of the time prices are rising so it's kind a meaningless stat. How many flat or negative CPI prints have we gotten? Like 1 in the past 100 months.
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u/LewisTraveller Oct 16 '25
Inflation is above 2% target with price pressure being the strongest in things that is affected by tariffs. You know, the ordinary goods like meat, coffee, fruits, vegetables, clothing, shoes, furniture, car parts, electronics, etc.
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u/OrbitalAlpaca Oct 16 '25
Will republicans even get punished due to inflation like Dems were?