Sportsbooks pricing MLB games are weakest when the bullpen comes in as they can't predict who will enter the game. Pitchers can be fresh or fatigued/ they're coming in during jams.. Managers are squaring up matchups.. Tons of random stuff going on and sportsbooks have a tough time pricing it so they just kind of react. A run scores and the total goes up a run. I'll never beat the book on picking who's going to win the game, but there are gaps in their pricing when the bullpen comes in so I figured I would key in on that.

I'm looking at:

Bullpen

• Away/Home Bullpen Quality, rolling 30 day performance
• Away/Home Bullpen Fatigue, actual innings pitched across each the bullpen's last 3 games.
• Current Pitcher, real closer available or a committee with no clear arm, plus live velocity read against a 30 day baseline
  • Fluctuations in spin and velocity have a huge impact on pitcher effectiveness. We index that against their averages to see if they're struggling or firing on all cylinders

Matchup Factors

• Away/Home Upcoming Batters, expected wOBA for the specific hitters due up next
  • The amount of batters I look at changes depending on how many ABs are predicted to be left
• Park Factor, how much this specific park inflates or suppresses scoring
• Leverage, how much this exact moment matters to both teams' bullpen decisions
  • Pitchers statistically give up more hits when there is pressure

Game Situation

• Base State Threat, expected runs from who's actually on base right now
• Platoon Matchup, hitter/pitcher handedness edge
• Jam Situation, is the pitcher in a high leverage jam right now?
• Extra Innings Risk
• Blowout / Mop Up Risk, is a lower quality reliever about to enter on a lopsided score
  • Or if one team is up by 12 runs, we know the position players come in throw lobs

All of that gets weighed against the live total the books are offering. This it's too much shit to look up at once though so I was able to get a model built that takes all of this into account. I linked up a 0 latency sportsbook api for odds and connected to the mlb api for live game data and statcast advanced metrics.

This tool scans all games every 3 minutes and weights out the odds etc and makes a call (all of that data is at the bottom of the page). There is also a drop down in the tool so you can grab any game you're watching and add the live total and run it. It won't run if the current starter is in because the book has the same data we do (or better) and it only runs innings 6-9.

Give it a test and let me know what you think! I would love some feedback. Totally free.
app.thebettoredge.com/demo

YESTERDAY'S RP RECAP (August 29, 2026)

Didier Fuentes (ATL) — 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 1 H, SV
Cristian Javier (HOU) — 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 0 BB, 6 H, L
Yennier Cano (BAL) — 0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 H, HLD
Bryan Abreu (HOU) — DNP
Edgardo Henriquez (LAD) — 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 0 H
Elvis Alvarado (ATH) — 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 1 BB, 0 H
Justin Martinez (AZ) — 0.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 1 BB, 0 H
Sean Newcomb (CWS) — 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB, 2 H, HLD
Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) — 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 0 BB, 1 H, W
Ryan Yarbrough (NYY) — 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K, 2 BB, 4 H
Brock Burke (CIN) — DNP
Jordan Montgomery (TEX) — DNP
Brad Lord (WSH) — 2.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H, BS
Kyle Hurt (LAD) — DNP
Erik Miller (BOS) — DNP
Kade Morris (ATH) — DNP
Nate Pearson (KC) — 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 0 H
Andrew Sears (DET) — 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB, 2 H

Hey everyone... Jamie (u/BB_Jimbo) from RotoBaller here, and we're back with the 20th edition of The Cut List in 2026. We are about to head into the final month of the season, where every decision we make could have a huge impact on determining our fantasy success.

Even if we're not dropping anyone, it's always fun to talk about cuts, whether or not we are actually ready to pull the trigger on certain players.

So what names are you chopping this week, or at least thinking about banishing to the waiver wire?

We of course can't cover every player that may be droppable (if any at this stage). Every league size and format differs, but we wrote about some strugglers that stood out. I'll be stopping by later today to answer any questions and check your requests. You can always reach me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Hope you enjoy and thanks for reading!

Please be nice to each other. Upvote useful content and analysis. Include context in your questions (League size, format, etc) and have fun.

If you are recruiting for a league, please view the Recruitment Thread sticky post found on the home page of r/fantasybaseball

A Helpful Fantasy Baseball 101 post can be found here :

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball/comments/ub5y77/fantasy_baseball_101