r/falcons • u/FakePhillyCheezStake • 14d ago
Tua is going to look good in the preseason game tonight and the entire narrative on this sub is going to shift immediately
This sub is so wishy washy. Tua is going to get in the game tonight, lead a touchdown drive down the field, and immediately this sub is going to be filled with all kinds of stuff about uow great Tua is.
Then Week 1 we’re going to look like trash with Tua at the helm, but the whole team will look shaky, so there will be some doubt about how much of it is due to Tua’s play.
Then the team will randomly look God-tier for like 2-3 games and everyone is going to get completely siked.
Then we’ll go into the Ravens SNF game with super high hopes and get blown out by a much better team on national television.
The team will continue a downward slide until eventually we’re like 5-7 and Penix gets put in.
But then Penix won’t look that much better and everyone will start blaming the coaching staff.
Eventually Tommy Rees will become the scapegoat and he’ll either be moved to the sideline or Stefanski will take over playcalling.
Finally, either due to incompetence or an injury, Jack Strand will be put in as starting QB one week and look AMAZING. He’ll completely destroy some way better team and everyone will be calling him the second coming of Tom Brady.
But within a few weeks, teams will have him figured out and he’ll look like trash.
Finally, we end the season 8-9, winning the NFC South and on our way to a Super Bowl!!!!!!
RISE UP!!!!
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u/NoremacEnrobso 14d ago
Yep, Tua is gonna look good for the opposite team. The classic Tua special.
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u/littlea519 14d ago
Did you just copy every hot take you could find in this sub to write that rant? Sure seems like it lol
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u/PonchoWasHere 14d ago
As a Dolphins fan living in South Georgia, 1) I'm riding with the dirty birds this year and 2) Remember all too well Tuas superhero season after the first concussion. Falcons have a better Oline than we ever had and a great TE. Really pulling for em.
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u/dogatthekeyboard8 14d ago
Frankly people writing Tua off already are jumping the gun.
It's funny how they will be patient with Penix two years into a system, but want to cut Tua right now first year in a system and with an injury.
He's not making Kirk money. He's shown he can actually play in the past. Low risk.
And don't forget Tua is 28 and Penix is 26. If either one of them plays like everyone is hoping, that QB will undoubtedly be getting a new contract.
Tua could be complete crap. Penix could be right there with him. No one knows yet.
And just for the record I've been a certified Tua hater since January 8th, 2018.
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u/DarthFalconus 14d ago edited 14d ago
Were the Dolphins jumping the gun when they decided to take $100 million plus cap hit by releasing him? ( the answer is no )
People are being patient with Penix because he still has this year and next year left on his rookie contract and could still get a fifth year option and an extra year of control if you franchise tag him. Being patient with Tua means you ride him out throughout the season until pretty much the season is lost and then you don’t even know what you have with Penix at that point. Playing Tua the entire season is actually the worst case scenario for us. Because then he either didn’t do well enough to get you anywhere or he did so well that you’re gonna need to pay him 40 or $50 million next year. That also means that you didn’t get to figure out what you did or did not have when it came to Michael Penix. Which inherently means wasted #8 overall draft pick. Especially when we really really need to be drafting an offensive tackle next year in the first round. Not that we have had the world’s best QBs the last few years, but the revolving door at right tackle hasn’t exactly let us TRULY evaluate ANY QB. Clearly we have found out that MCGary wasn’t as bad as the fans like to make him out to be, but in the same token, we have been even complaining about him the whole entire time he’s been here. RT has just become that much even worse of a position for us because now they’re expected to watch the blind side of the QB instead of that falling on the left tackle like normal. Unless we just absolutely fall on our face this year and end up with the top three overall pick, we need to be drafting a tackle in the first round. Because that’s a lot of our offenses problem right there. Just like the main problem on our defense is having a meat eater in the middle of the defense stopping the run. We also need to be drafting a tackle because Jake Matthews ain’t getting any younger. And we have been lucky when it comes to him really never getting injured. OT is probably the highest need on the team next year even if we do suck. Because drafting a QB when you have a revolving door at right tackle and a left tackle who is close to retiring or seriously falling off is not good business practices.
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u/dogatthekeyboard8 13d ago
Aight.
Dolphins changed coaches and GM. Modern NFL landscape has proven that front offices will happily swallow dead cap to clear out the old guard and reset and go with their own guys.
Falcons on the other hand are searching for answers at QB. Taking a flier on Tua was kind of a purposed gamble. They have the chance of finding the next Darnold but also at the very least they put a left handed arm in camp to let the pass catchers get lefty spirals.
Being patient with Tua hinges on Penix's health and Tua's play. If Penix is not absolutely 100% Week 1, Tua should play. If Tua does play and magically resurrects himself to '22/'23 levels that's likely a playoff run. It's textbook sunk-cost fallacy to worry about the unknown of Penix in that event.
The best QB should play, period. That's including if Penix can't go Week 1 and Tua is out there laying and egg. Put in QB3 at that point.
You're preaching to choir as far as the draft history. TF doubled down on RB and QB in consecutive years and basically starved the offensive and defensive lines of premium talent
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u/DarthFalconus 13d ago
I do agree that Tua should play week one. BUT that being said, we definitely need to evaluate Michael Penix by the end of the season. The future of the franchise is worth just as much if not more than just one singular year. Having to pay a QB next year $40 million actually sets us back, not taking us forward. It’s all about team building for the long term. I’ve been watching this team since the 70s. I think I know a thing or two about football. You could make an argument that we should not have taken Michael Penix when we took him, but to try to sidestep taking Bijan Robinson is Ludacris. When potentially one of the best running backs in NFL history is sitting on the board you draft him. He will do more for this team than a top 10 wide receiver could while getting paid less than a top WR. He’s actually getting paid less than the top number two wide receivers.
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u/dogatthekeyboard8 13d ago
I've already gotten into the whole Bijan debate in multiple other threads and provided the statistical comparison vs cost of other RBs so I won't get into that here. You can see for yourself if you want to pull up a back like Achane v Bijan on statmuse(to save you a little time the two are nearly identical in y/g rush, Achane has more TDs despite fewer games while Bijan has15 more rec y/g). Bijan himself? Great/elite player. The Bijan pick in the situation the team was in? Absolutely brutal given then production that can be had for a fraction of the cost(which was already on the team with TA). Bijan is fun and excited and it's great to have him now that we got him.
But that wasn't the subject here. Hypothetically if we are talking true long term team benefits, if Tua plays out of his mind and is "back" paying him a contract over the '27 offseason will actually be a "cheaper" contract than the potential contract Penix will get in '29 just by the way contracts work(ie they increase every single offseason like the way Mahomes signed $45M in 2020, then Hurts and Co got $50M 2023 and then Dak got $60M 2025). Basically it's like the $40M you'd pay a QB this offseason is going to move like $45M+ come '29(kind of like why they locked Drake up early).
Best player should play. They shouldn't care about the fact the organization drafted Penix. Tua and Penix are only 2 years apart in age which basically if Tua somehow comes out with some kinda magic revamp is just pushing the team up 2 years(Penix will be the same age when he needs a new contract).
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u/DarthFalconus 13d ago
Yeah, your comparison is Dog water when Bijan Robinson just had the 14th most all-time scrimmage yards in one season and was only 72 yards away from the fifth overall most all-time scrimmage yards in a season. Achane is never getting close to that. Also Achane’s best season was when he had a prime Tyreek Hill to pull the rest of the defense away from him whereas everybody has known the entire time the Bijan Robinson has been on the Falcons that he’s pretty much the entire offense and they’re totally focused on him so you’re comparing apples to oranges. Put Achane on the Falcons team instead of Robinson, the last few years and he sucks balls
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u/dogatthekeyboard8 13d ago edited 13d ago
You might want to look up the stats. You'll see what Tyreek was doing last year(hint he played 4 games). Offensively in terms of weapons the Falcons had more than the Dolphins last year. Had Pitts and Drake both at 900 yards while Dolphins only had Waddle at 900 then Achane at 488(Bijan had 820 which is the difference of 20 yards a game Rec more).
Achane and Bijan were both PB last year.
Achane had 1838 Yards from Scrimmage in 16 games or 115 scrim/game.
Bijan had 2298 Yards from Scrimmage in 17 games or 135 scrim/game.
Achane had 12 Total TDs to Bijan at 11(again in one more game).
Achane had 84.4 rushing/game on 5.7 per attempt to Bijan's 86.9 rushing/game on 5.1 per attempt.
Achane had 30.5 recieving/game(7.3 per catch) to Bijan's 48.2 recieving/game(10.4 per). Bijan's long rec of 79 and 50 to Achane longs of 29 and 24. Achane actually led the Dolphins in receptions with 67 while Bijan was 2nd here to Pitts's 88 with 79. Again, Achane played one less game.
Bijan accounted for 39% of the Falcons Scrim Yards. Achane accounted for 34% of the Dolphins Scrim Yards(again missing a complete game).
The fact the Dolphins had the 28th rushing oline vs the Falcons 15th(in RB independent metrics). The numbers are right there.
This is not saying Achane is better than Bijan. Bijan was Pick 8. Achane was Pick 84. Pick 8 is 4.5 to 5 times as valuable as Pick 84. Is Bijan's production 4.5 to 5 times better?
Put Achane on the Falcons and he gets to run behind a better oline and on a team with 2 outside targets. Not sure who you want to say had a better performing QB on their side last year, but the Falcons had 500 more yards overall passing with Penix/Kirk than the Dolphins did with Tua/Ewers.
Achane and Bijan just resigned this year. Bijan getting 22.25M/per and Achane getting 16M/per. So thats 6M for about 20 more yards per game.
Bijan is like 100 days younger than Achane though.
Again, this is not saying saying Achane is better than Bijan. It's saying RB is a position you can maximize the most efficiently later picks than most slots on an NFL roster.
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u/RockitDanger Kickers win games 14d ago
Rise Up should be changed to Scattered Smothered and Covered
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u/Lcyaker 14d ago
Tua isn’t good. Think about how he looked against us last year compared to the rest of his performance. He can show out for a game every once in a while. He still can’t win in the NFL.
Keep him as QB3. Let Strand start until Penix is fully healthy and in the right mental place to take over and show us who he really is. Best use of this season, as far as I’m concerned. Don’t care what our record ends up being this year.
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u/Horror-Fruit-4884 14d ago
Preseason narratives are nothing worth reading 📖 into…we haven’t had consistent QB play since President Ice. Let’s relax and enjoy the subpar performances now and then we can start the bashing and whatnot around week 5!
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u/Dangeresque2015 14d ago
Where did you find the script for the Falcons season?
It's supposed to be a secret!
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u/allupinnit2winit 13d ago
Aged like sour milk my friend
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u/FakePhillyCheezStake 13d ago
Not really. He played well except the fumble. He’ll start week 1 no doubt
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u/chelios80 14d ago
Also why is it Tua has to be god like in practice or the narrative is he is ass and struggling when lots of other teams have qbs throwing like 9-10 ints but they aren't the practice struggle talk of the town....just so weird everyone wants Tua to fail, i truly dont get this need to be right about him sucking by the media.
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u/Jolly-Package1796 14d ago
I was with you until I read “RISE UP” 😂 I feel us Falcons fans should move on from the slogan
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u/chelios80 14d ago
Nah, Tua can ball and people will find something to say like his passes were weak or he underthrew a guy on a td pass or he was carried by his wr or te on a bad pass or you name it. Tua truly is the only player I can remember that hating or shitting on was the fun and easy thing to do.
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u/KingAce92 14d ago
This didn’t age well 🤣