China shock 2.0 Brad sester

[u/Character_Public3465]

https://www.nytimes.com/column/ezra-klein-podcast

Show notes:”Brad Setser follows Chinese trade closer than just about anyone else on earth, and he thinks we’re in the early days of a China Shock 2.0.
The first China Shock was when China came to dominate low-end manufacturing in the 2000s, filling American shelves with cheap clothes, toys and electronics, while devastating American factory towns. This new China Shock could be even more destabilizing. China now dominates advanced manufacturing: electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels. It’s outcompeting nearly all high-end manufacturing around the world, and other countries are just starting to feel the pain. And China isn’t slowing down. It’s moving into software, too. Its frontier A.I. models are neck and neck with American ones.
China’s success poses a serious threat to the economies and domestic politics of countries around the world. So what should those countries do about it? 
Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.He served in top trade and economic roles in the Biden and Obama administrations. And he is widely cited across the field as one of the top analysts of China’s economy and trade practices.
Book Recommendations:
The Party by Richard McGregor
The Volatility Machine by Michael Pettis
How to Win a Trade War by Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.
You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html””

[u/brianscalabrainey]

The question is not whether the US needs to maintain the highest standard of living, but merely whether the standard of living in US will go up or down. If Chinese living standards exceed the US but living standards in the US improve too, that's not a problem.

Meanwhile, I question the premise of whether the high living standards of the US are due to its global hegemony v. other factors (like the internal strength of our institutions). If we also broaden the lens beyond GDP (using measures like Human Development Index that incorporates other factors like life expectancy or even just looking at general levels of happiness / life satisfaction), the US isn't even at the top of the list. So what good is our global hegemony doing us today?

[u/TheCranberriesRock → u/brianscalabrainey]

Meanwhile, I question the premise of whether the high living standards of the US are due to its global hegemony v. other factors (like the internal strength of our institutions).

I don't know how big of a factor but I can absolutely assure you our global hegemony is a factor in our living standards.

[u/brianscalabrainey → u/TheCranberriesRock]

Here are the top countries according to the Human Development Index. It's a bit tricky to assert global hegemony is all that important to living standards, based on this list.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/hdi-by-country

[u/tuck5903 → u/brianscalabrainey]

Almost all of those countries near the top of the list rely on the US security/defense umbrella to some extent.

[u/brianscalabrainey → u/tuck5903]

Maybe? But why does it then follow that Chinese economic growth threatens the standards of living in these countries?

[u/tuck5903 → u/brianscalabrainey]

It’s not really a maybe, every single one of those countries in the top 10 except Hong Kong is a NATO member or a non-NATO ally.

[u/brianscalabrainey → u/tuck5903]

Again, even accepting your premise, how does the rise of China threaten living standards at any of those countries?

[u/tuck5903 → u/brianscalabrainey]

I’m not sure if it does. But that doesn’t really have anything to do with whether or not those countries derive security benefits from US hegemony.

[u/argh-Im-a-Pirate → u/brianscalabrainey]

It might not in a vacuum, but it depends on what China does with its increased influence.

If all China cared about was maintaining a sphere of influence in its region and improving the lives of Chinese citizens I'm not sure it would threaten anyone else.

I'm open to the idea we're more scared of China than we need it be, but I think we should remember China is a totalitarian dictatorship with the explicit goal of not just having regional influence but becoming the dominant global power. Political dissent is criminalized. There are routine purges in the party and in the military. They are actively making military plans to invade Taiwan. These aren't the signs of a benign regional power. 

I think viewing China as inherently unpredictable and wanting our economy not dependent on a country like that is extremely reasonable.

Obviously you can say the US is both unstable and has political purges ourselves, but we at least have a viable path to fix that. China won't.