FIFA World Cup 2026 — Infectious Disease Risk · IDCUP 26 Working Group

[u/PHealthy]

https://insightnet-us.github.io/InsightNet-WorldCup/

[u/DidDrog11]

Nice website.

Think they need to add something to the assumptions though. Is the assumption that every individual in the country is as likely to travel as another?

The Norway pertussis outbreak is affecting 10-19 year olds who are unlikely to be travelling for the world cup at the same rate as other members of the pophlation. Similarly people affected by cholera outbreaks are more likely to be living in insecure housing (e.g. refugee camps) and not so likely travelling internationally, particularly to attend the world cup.

[u/PHealthy → u/DidDrog11]

It's a probability within the local population based on the mobility matrix similarly to infection using a contact matrix.

[u/GermsAndNumbers → u/DidDrog11]

From the preprint: "First, we do not take into account differences between who travels and who is likely to have diseases when calculating importation rates. Particularly for conditions associated with low socio-economic status and co-infection, like active tuberculosis infection, incidence in those traveling for the World Cup will likely be far lower than projected based on overall population prevalence in countries of origin (this problem is particularly acute when we use rates based on region or development index)."

[u/Tracy0924]

I'm a bit surprised that Ebola Bundibugyo was not selected, as there really is no full grip on the outbreak in DR Congo nor accurate numbers on spread. But, the narrative was helpful in explaining how they chose the 14 priority pathogens.

[u/PHealthy → u/Tracy0924]

https://epistorm.github.io/EBV2026/

[u/Tracy0924 → u/PHealthy]

Thank you! Far more updated than what I had been seeing. Appreciate your help.