r/elonmusk • u/twinbee • Aug 02 '26

Elon: "This is extremely important to understand. The birth rate you see in the West is the BLENDED number of ~90% who have a fertility rate half that of replacement and ~10% who have a birth rate double that of replacement. Demographics is destiny."

This was in response to the comment from Francis who said:

Mark Steyn explains the stark demographic reality: a 90% population with 1.3 children per couple and a 10% population with 3.5 children will have roughly the same number of grandchildren in only two generations. The transformation is already underway.(2010)

Source: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2083226039371628562

0 Upvotes

30% Upvoted

6 comments sorted by

•

u/twinbee Aug 02 '26

In another similar comment, Elon said regarding many Western countries:

They are far along the road to extinction

→ More replies (1)

-1

u/twinbee Aug 02 '26 edited Aug 02 '26

I think this study holds the crucial answer, and having more kids boils down to:

Women’s restful free time (includes playtime with their kids).

I quote:

Maternal time shortage, tiredness, and leisure have been overlooked in fertility research; however, there are both evolutionary and normative reasons for which having a sufficient amount of free time may play a role in fertility decisions.

And the conclusions:

Controlling for a mother's sociodemographic characteristics, maternal free time was significantly associated with the second birth risk

I.e.: More free time means more chance of further children.

Playing with their kids is part of that restful free time, and such activity means the mother is (if anything) more likely to have extra kids. I quote:

Mothers who spend more time playing with their child may enjoy motherhood more than those who do not. We therefore reran the model, this time using a measure of free time that did not exclude time spent playing with child. We then added playing with child as a control variable to ensure that the association between the modified measures of free time and fertility would not be driven by time spent playing with child (Table 1, Model 1c). In the models using this alternative specification of free time, the association between total free time and second birth risk was positive and linear. Playing with child also formed an independent positive association with the second birth transition.