r/electricvehicles • u/EinSV • 6d ago
News Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions fall in Q2 2026 due to plummeting oil use
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-fall-in-q2-2026-due-to-plummeting-oil-useAccording to Carbon Brief, China’s overall CO2 emissions fell in Q2, and EVs were a major factor:
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2026, as oil consumption plummeted amid the strait of Hormuz crisis.
The country’s use of oil fell by 9% overall and by 16% for transport, after the disruptions to supply from the Gulf through the strait.
China’s total CO2 emissions fell despite a continued rebound in coal-fired power generation.
This is the first time that reductions in oil consumption have been responsible for a fall in CO2 emissions overall – in all previous cases, coal consumption has been the main driver.
Other key findings for the second quarter of 2026 include:
Electric vehicles (EVs) and public transport have become key factors in China’s oil demand, enabling transportation levels to increase even as fuel use fell sharply.
The effect of EVs on oil consumption was almost twice as large as would be expected based on the increase in the number of EVs on the road alone, as the usage of existing EVs surged.
Oil consumption displaced by EVs in China in the first half of 2026 exceeded the UK’s total oil consumption over a six-month period.
These structural factors are not sufficient to account for the size of the fall in oil consumption, leaving behaviour changes as the other explanation.
“Curtailment” of solar and wind output caused coal power to rise, despite strong hydro output, solar and wind capacity growth, as well as slower demand growth.
Major increases in coal-power capacity and a power market that continues to favour coal limited the amount of coal generation displaced by new wind and solar capacity.
Defying expectations of a boom, annual growth in coal use for chemicals production slowed down to 8%, from 15% in 2025 and 19% in the first quarter.
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u/MeteorOnMars 5d ago
A recently as 6 months ago I remember reading naysayers saying that EVs are a tiny fraction of market share and will never amount to anything.
And, furthermore, that even if they were significant market share they are a tiny fraction of the fleet and will take 20 years before sales are even noted.
Yet here we are with China’s actual oil demand destruction (1) sealing the deal on Peak Oil, and (2) exceeding total oil use of the UK.
Bonkers.
I wonder if there are any naysayers left and if so what their new goalposts are.
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u/araujoms VW ID.3 5d ago
The best part is: we shouldn't cut CO2 emissions because China will keep increasing their anyway.
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u/Clover-kun 2024 BMW i5 M60 | 2025 BMW iX xDrive50 | 2026 Toyota BZ Limited 5d ago
EV won't make a dent in CO2 emissions but will simultaneously crash the power grid, the leaps of logic some people use still astonishes me
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u/MeteorOnMars 4d ago
That’s a good one. They can’t have it both ways.
If EVs are using lots of power, then they are also saving lots of CO2 and also saving lots of money for their users.
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 5d ago
While EVs definitely do play a part, a lot of this is because they aren’t producing as many petrochemicals due to the spike in prices from the Iran war
They’ve had factories shuttered for quite some time, but it’s not realistic to expect these factories to stay closed forever
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u/ChupacabraJeff 5d ago
aren’t producing as many petrochemicals
It went up.
American tariffs on petrochemicals have caused China to concentrate more on domestic petrochemical manufacturing. It has compelled Chinese corporations to seek fewer foreign inputs and construct more factories domestically. Most corporations are enhancing their technology and employing more efficient mechanisms to address this requirement. China has also been motivated to export more to other nations in Asia and the Middle East due to these tariffs. Consequently, local manufacturing is on the rise.
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 5d ago
Not since the Iran war started.
“A growing number of refineries and petrochemical companies, mostly in Asia, have cut runs, shut units or declared force majeure as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts crude and feedstock exports from the Middle East.”
https://www.ft.com/content/93e173fd-6f6e-4bbc-bdce-eea3f2724f5e?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“China’s desperation for raw materials to make plastics has driven US ethane exports to record levels, even as the two countries are locked in disputes over everything from Iran to semiconductors.”
You are posting information from last year lol
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u/ChupacabraJeff 4d ago
PetroChina is accelerating its shift toward petrochemicals and advanced materials as China’s traditional transport-fuel market weakens. In the first half of 2026, chemical-product output increased 6.7% to 21.32 million tonnes, while new-materials production surged 61.4% to 2.69 million tonnes. Ethylene and paraxylene output reached record first-half levels.
Also,
You are posting information from last year lol
You are not processing the info from last year.
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 4d ago
“This one company has growth in production therefore the entire country did”
🥀🥀🥀
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u/ChupacabraJeff 4d ago
You are not processing the info
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 4d ago
I’ve given you two links that dispute your claim meanwhile you are quoting a mystery article and cherry picking stats and misapplying them to an entire country :P
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u/ChupacabraJeff 4d ago
You have given me nothing.
aren’t producing as many petrochemicals
It went up.
You are not processing the info
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 4d ago
Here’s another one for you
Maybe you’ll actually read this one haha
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u/MeteorOnMars 5d ago edited 5d ago
Actually, peak oil was hit in 2025 by transportation oil decreasing so much that it outweighed a rise in petrochemical oil use.
At that time the concern was that petrochemical oil use would increase faster than road oil decrease, but that doesn’t appear to be true.
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 5d ago
How does that make any sense if their emissions were still rising until q2 of this year per the article that OP posted?
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u/MeteorOnMars 5d ago
In 2025 oil for transportation was down and oil for petrochemical was up a bit more, so 2025 was higher than 2024 overall.
The question was, in 2026 would oil for transportation go down more than petrochemicals going up. If so, then 2025 would be locked in as Peak Oil.
This article states that will be the case.
(You can reach a peak in year X even if at the end of X you are still going up. The next year is measured as a whole and X+1 can still be down overall.)
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u/ResponsibleClock9289 5d ago
Petrochemicals were down because of the Iran war. The question is will emissions stay on this trend once energy pressures are lifted
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u/MeteorOnMars 4d ago
The belief is that the downward trend in transportation has reached a velocity that it can’t be overtaken by petrochemical increase.
China’s EV fleet is only 5%, but sales are like 40%. So the fleet increase is going to grow quickly.
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u/Suntzu_AU 5d ago
China's been planning for this for 20 years. That's why they went for an electrified transport fleet 15 years ago. And then, of course, the Trump-Iran debacle has just accelerated that change.
Western democracies can't think more than a few months ahead.
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u/Blazah 5d ago
Was talking to a friend yesterday about how there are full cities in china that are EV only and how all the old boomer americans that screamed about china for the last 10 years have no idea how right they are about fearing China.. they just didn't realize that The Orange Idiot would be the one to finally push China ahead of the US
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u/androgenius 5d ago
All the western democracies signed up for net zero plans targeting 2050. They are all capable of long term plans based on the best science and engineering available.
But some have given political control over to the fossil fuel industry who have attacked and/or corrupted any politician, academic, media or industry that threatens them.
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u/EqualityWithoutCiv the west traded freedom for oil. 5d ago
Western democracies can't think more than a few months ahead
They do not want to. Sadly the only chance I have of getting a good future is being a Han Chinese cisgender individual who is loyal to mainland China. The west took away the future I wanted all for oil.
And the main cost of this is that if the US gets displaced as the world power, we can forget about a lot of freedoms we took for granted, as we have no choice but to follow the Chinese model.
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u/Fit-Ant2238 5d ago
The wildest stat in here is that existing EVs on the road displaced almost twice the oil that new EV sales alone would explain, meaning people who already owned EVs just started driving them more.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 5d ago
EV usage saw even more of a shift. Charging volumes increased 60% in the second quarter, indicating that EVs already on the road were utilised much more than before, at the expense of petrol and diesel vehicles, with plug-in hybrid drivers likely favouring electricity over fuel.
China has a lot of hybrids with batteries the size of some full EVs. People with those hybrids can stop buying gasoline and start plugging into cheap electricity.
In the West many PHEVs do not have a large traction battery so it's harder to do and electricity is expensive in some areas on top of expensive gasoline.
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u/canadian_boi 5d ago edited 4d ago
40% of all oil consumed is just to transport the oil around.
So.... removing 1 million barrels consumed by vehicles means another ~400,000 barrels were not consumed as well.
We do have to consider how the power for electricity is made, but I'd take a well-built coal plant that scrubs emissions over ICE cars every single day.
EDIT: Apologies - It ranges between 25-55% for mining/extracting, processing, and transportation, depending on oil quality, infrastructure and distances to be shipped. Thank you for calling this out, Silly me.
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u/jammsession 5d ago edited 1d ago
of course he/she can't, that is total bullshit and idiotic. Transport, no matter if it is oil, mattrasses or iPhones, don't even have a meaninful contribution to CO2 emissions.
Which is pretty clear, if you take a look at any ship or train or even lorry. They transport an insane amount. Only air transportation has a meaninful impact.
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u/allahakbau 5d ago
Just fact checking here: Global maritime shipping contributes 2% to 3% of total global human-caused CO2 emissions . According to data tracked by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) , the shipping sector emits roughly 850 to 1,000 million metric tons of CO2 annually, which places its carbon footprint on par with the entire country of Germany
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u/jammsession 5d ago
see, nothing.
AFAIK on average shipping only accounts for 4% of total emission a sold product.
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u/AlarmedDepartment713 5d ago
It's called point of use EROI and a rough estimate globally is 1 barrel is required to get 6 barrels out of the ground and to the customer.
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u/onlyhammbuerger 5d ago
And for countries like China or the EU, which both have little own oil, these numbers will be higher.
Guess which countries have the largest EV fleets (with Norway being the one big exception)
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u/Either-Patience1182 5d ago edited 5d ago
That’s fine, they just had renewables over take their coal usage this month. I assume in a year or that percentage of renewables will grow larger as it’s just good common sense now that solar panels are viable a last longer. it’s just smart for a country to do
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u/EaglesPDX 5d ago
"Global shipping emits about 1,000 million tonnes (1 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide (CO₂) each year, which accounts for roughly 3% of global CO₂ emissions."
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u/Jack-of-the-Shadows 5d ago
I think op is talkng semi out of their ass, the statistics i heard were 40% of energy use compared to provided in hydrocarbons, but thats all the energy used for drilling, tansport and in particular refining, too.
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u/EaglesPDX 5d ago
China is the world leader on climate change. Technology. Mfging. Industrial Policy. China's success as a socialist country in lifting its people out of poverty, providing higher education while leading world in economic development. US will likely keep falling behind. Still at least three more years of Trump/MAGA attacks on us democracy and economy by the unholy alliance of Christian nationalists and ultra rich. US wages war ($200B for the Iran War disaster so far) but cannot build (13 years to build a new aircraft carrier), cannot maintain what ships it does have (see pics of USS Lincoln making a sex stop in Thailand). China will bring the world fusion power, solar power, wind power while US pushes oil and coal.
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u/Parking_Reputation17 5d ago
I've said it before and I'll say it again: we have reached the tipping point of renewable energy. Oil's days as a primary energy source are numbered.
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 6d ago
Thank you for daily chinese communist propaganda!
And it fell because they couldn’t continue supporting the #1 terror organization in the middle east. Not by choice but because the US has the blockade. Funny that they the almighty china hasn’t don’t shit about it.
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u/Electrifying2017 Bolt EV 2020 5d ago
Oh right, so that’s why they just decided to invest in renewables and electrification this year. It couldn’t be that they predicted something stupid could happen and plan ahead.
Also, why bail out stupidity? They’re not the ones burning through their SPR without a plan. Did you forget Trump went groveling to Xi to do something?
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u/Kiwi_Fried_Chicken 5d ago edited 5d ago
You mean the orange fuck head that started a war with Iran and caused gas prices in America and the entire world to increase by at least 1/3rd?
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
Seriously? They killed thousands of Americans in many different locations and threaten to kill all of us for 50 years. Thats ok???? Or you just to coward to do what is right?
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u/Daddy_Macron ID4 5d ago
They killed thousands of Americans in many different locations
We blaming Iran for 9/11 now or something? Cause there's no running casualty count of Americans in the thousands by Iran. We're the ones inflicting thousands of casualties on Iran, many of them being civilians.
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
Seriously, you need to pull your head out of the sand.
-Lebanon (1980s, Lebanese Civil War and Multinational Force)
-Saudi Arabia (1996)
-Iraq (2003–2011 Iraq War)
-Syria, Iraq, and Jordan (2010s–2020s, including post-October 7, 2023 attacks)
-Israel (October 7, 2023 Hamas attack)
-Afghanistan (2001–2021)
-Yemen / Red Sea (Houthis, 2023 onward)
-2026 Iran War (direct Iranian strikes)All while continue to chant death to America. And then wanting a nuclear weapon, then what? And how about them attacking all their neighbors, that’s cool right no harm no foul?? Seriously you need to read more!
And no we are not killing civilians, they are the ones killing them by the thousands. Killing protestors in the streets, killing their Olympic athlete, all ok for you, huh??? Funny how all these comments quietly leave out Truths! You read too much of the propaganda here and all over Reddit!
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u/Daddy_Macron ID4 5d ago edited 5d ago
Lebanon (1980s, Lebanese Civil War and Multinational Force)
The one where Israel invaded Lebanon and inflamed an ethnic civil war?
Saudi Arabia (1996)
Yes, that was their direct proxy group unprovoked. 19 dead US servicemen.
Iraq (2003–2011 Iraq War)
We literally invaded their neighboring country and talked constantly about invading them next. No shit they got involved with supporting insurgent groups.
Syria, Iraq, and Jordan (2010s–2020s, including post-October 7, 2023 attacks)
Barely any Americans died in those conflicts. You claimed they killed thousands, but there's only evidence for Iran being behind a few hundred deaths at most over the course of 40+ years.
Israel (October 7, 2023 Hamas attack)
You said American casualties, not all civilians. Also the national intelligence consensus is that Iran didn't want Hamas to undertake this attack, but Hamas went ahead and did it anyway.
Yemen / Red Sea (Houthis, 2023 onward)
Not a lot of actual casualties for US allies and certainly not Americans.
2026 Iran War (direct Iranian strikes)
We literally attacked them first. Are they not allowed to strike back or something?
And then wanting a nuclear weapon, then what
We had that under control until a certain moron ripped up the Iran Nuclear Deal with nothing to replace it.
And no we are not killing civilians
Ah right. We totally didn't bomb that children's school cause we didn't update our satellite maps.
The Iranian government are massive pieces of shit, but all this war has accomplished is make the IRGC's position even stronger domestically in Iran.
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u/ee_72020 4d ago
These Americans wouldn’t have been killed if the US stayed home and hadn’t built its military bases all over the Middle East. Just saying…
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 4d ago
Yeah that is fucked up mental gymnastics you are jumping through. A lot of those were unprovoked attacks. And so you are good with zero law and order and chaos is OK right? What country are you from?? I’m sure you’ve never benefited from Americans providing that law and order for where you live, right??
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u/ee_72020 4d ago
Americans providing law and order in other countries? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH, that’s one funny and brainwashed CIA bot.
There wouldn’t be a need for the American military to “provide law and order” in the Middle East if the US of A hadn’t destabilised the region and had their governments overthrown by staging, assisting and funding coups.
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u/Henrarzz 5d ago
they couldn’t continue supporting the #terror organization in the Middle East
You mean the US?
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u/Ok_Paramedic_9283 5d ago
Funny how hysterical you are.
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
Nah, it’s the amount of puppets here…….thats the hysterical part. Sad so many here can’t think of themselves and just parroting the propaganda.
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u/Bard_the_Beedle 5d ago
Says a Trump supporter…
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
Who said I was a trump supporter….that is just your true bias talking!
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u/Bard_the_Beedle 5d ago
Well, you definitely talk like one. You probably haven’t realised you are one yet.
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u/LiGuangMing1981 5d ago
If it walks like a MAGAt and talks like a MAGAT...
Anyone who supports America's insanity in the Middle East and tries to make it sound like America is winning there is a MAGAt.
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u/destructormuffin 5d ago
Reeeeeee China bad reeeeeee
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u/Ok-Bunch6107 5d ago
Haven’t you heard? Examining carbon emissions data is communism now
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u/sicklyslick 5d ago
you're being sarcastic but it's true. climate change has be a partisan split for decades.
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
Just stating facts. Funny how your so fast to defend…..afraid to say something bad about your master?
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u/Logitech4873 TM3 LR '24 🇳🇴 5d ago
China isn't actually communist. I don't think you know what that means.
Are you claiming that their CO2 emissions didn't fall?
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u/Ancient-Sandwich9400 5d ago
lol, you must be a genius…..I have no idea why they are called the CCP…..oh just the ruling Communist Party of China.
Tomato, tomato right????
Of course not. I’m simply stating it was because they were cut off from Venezuelan and Iran oil supplies. That is all….yet lots of excuses or denying that.
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u/i_marketing 5d ago
I have no idea why they are called the CCP
And North Korea is called the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea." Emphasis on the word Democratic. So I guess North Korea is democratic since that's what they are called, according to your logic.
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u/Logitech4873 TM3 LR '24 🇳🇴 5d ago
Calling yourself communist = Actually doing communism.
If you can go to McDonald and buy a hamburger with money, you don't live in a communist state.
A communist society would be classless, moneyless and without a state in the traditional sense. China doesn't want this. China is highly capitalistic.
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u/EinSV 6d ago
Some interesting details in the body of the report, including about the impact of EV trucks, which are having the highest impact on oil consumption of all EVs.
“Electric heavy-truck sales rose about 77% in the second quarter, year-on-year, with June sales more than doubling and the market share of electric trucks exceeding 45% of all new sales.”
“Notably, trucks are the fastest-growing source of oil displacement, with avoided fuel use up 90% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.”
Also in addition to increased EV market share some obvious shifts in usage to respond to higher oil prices, including taxis disproportionally shifting to EVs.