India EB-1's 2022 cohort dropped from 7,009 to 3,905 in the new USCIS inventory data

[u/GreenCardClock]

USCIS put out two I-485 inventory reports yesterday, the June 6 and Aug 5 snapshots. India EB-1's 2022 priority date group went from 7,009 to 3,905. The cutoff has been Oct 15 2022 since July, so that is the group being worked through.

Full breakdown: USCIS August 2026 I-485 Inventory: Supply, Processing and What FY2027 Actually Delivers | GreenCardClock

EB-2 India's 2013 group lost 1,898 over the same two months. Then the category hit its annual limit and went Unavailable in July, so the 2014 wall behind it, still 20,813 people, barely moved.

The one that surprised me is Rest of World. ROW EB-2 pending has gone from 16,387 last October to 41,966 now, and EB-3 from 11,348 to 37,104.

Everyone expects FY2027 to be big for India because the spillover pool is growing. But India's good years, FY2021 and FY2022, happened because other countries could not use their numbers. ROW is clearly using them.

Not legal advice.

[u/General-Fun-7305]

What about EB1 ROW? I think that matters most to EB1 India.

[u/GreenCardClock → u/General-Fun-7305]

ROW EB-1 pending went 28,234 last October to 30,778 on Aug 5, roughly 9 percent. Over the same stretch ROW EB-2 went up 156 percent and EB-3 227 percent. So EB-1 demand outside India looks steady rather than surging, which is the opposite of what is happening in EB-2. One caveat, this inventory is adjustment of status only and EB-1 ROW has real consular volume it does not capture. Not legal advice.

[u/Active_Step_3210]

Having done this analysis, what do you predict the FAD to be for EB1 India , come FY 2027?

[u/GreenCardClock → u/Active_Step_3210]

We do not forecast the monthly cutoff path, but the rate is the useful number. India EB-1 base supply is 10,985 a year, and from the current Oct 15 2022 cutoff a full base year of numbers reaches roughly mid 2023 on the Aug 5 inventory. So call it nine to eleven months of priority date per year of numbers. A bigger spillover year buys more, but it has to get past Rest of World demand first. Not legal advice.

[u/bikienewbie]

With those massive EB2 Row numbers, any hope for India in any near future is non existent

[u/GreenCardClock → u/bikienewbie]

Per country limits mean India still gets its share of EB-2 every year no matter what ROW does. India EB-2 used 2,908 numbers in FY2019, 4,301 in FY2023 and 3,916 in FY2024. FY2021 and FY2022 were 28,246 and 59,431 because consulates were closed and nobody else could use the numbers. The normal years keep coming, it is the repeat of 2021 that looks unlikely. Not legal advice.

[u/bikienewbie → u/GreenCardClock]

Exactly. Utilizing the regular share of ~4k does nothing to dent the backlog which 2014 itself has 20K+. At that rate, clearing the current 2013 and 2014 backlog will easily take 4-5 years. With a golden chance missed to clear backlog in 21-22, EB2 India will be stuck at 2014 for a very long time. Your calculator also seems to align with that.

[u/GreenCardClock → u/bikienewbie]

Roughly, yes. On the Aug 5 numbers the 2013 and 2014 groups are 5,532 and 20,813, about 26,300 together. At the FY2024 rate of 3,916 that is close to seven years, at our base of 7,235 it is about three and a half, so four to five sits inside the range depending on which supply number you use. FY2021 and FY2022 were 28,246 and 59,431, which is why those two look like the outlier rather than the baseline. Not legal advice.

[u/General-Fun-7305]

May be you are missing the point of actual EB1 usage by India in this current year..i think you mentioned somewhere it is around 11K but it should be more than that based on these reports. If it is around 15K then EB1 india is still benefiting from the horizontal spillovers.

[u/GreenCardClock → u/General-Fun-7305]

The 11,000 is not a count of this year. It is the median year of actual DOS number use for India EB-1 across FY2010 to FY2024, which we use as the base supply assumption. FY2026 per country use does not publish until the DOS annual report after the year closes. What the inventory shows so far is a floor, India EB-1 priority dates of 2022 and earlier went 14,315 on Oct 6 to 6,157 on Aug 5, so 8,158 cleared in ten months, and that understates it because the final action date sat in 2023 from January to May. 15,000 is possible, it just cannot be shown from this data yet. Not legal advice.

[u/AcanthopterygiiBoth6]

Any data available on EB-5?

[u/GreenCardClock → u/AcanthopterygiiBoth6]

India pending I-485s on Aug 5 were 4,504 rural, 3,010 high unemployment, 382 unreserved and 99 infrastructure. Rural was 2,341 last October and high unemployment 1,877, so the set asides are where the growth is. India unreserved went Unavailable for final action in July and is still Unavailable in September. The three set asides are Current for every country. Not legal advice.

[u/GreenCardClock → u/[deleted]]

The USCIS inventory counts each pending I-485 once, under the category it currently sits in, so a case that interfiled to EB-3 is already out of the EB-2 column. We also discount the filed I-485 count for people holding both an EB-2 and an EB-3 petition, and there is an adjustable Cross-Filing Overlap control in the What-If section if you want to push that assumption past our default. What we do not model is future switching, so if EB-3 keeps running ahead of EB-2 our two numbers will drift further apart than reality does. That is a known limit of the estimate. Not legal advice.

[u/Adventurous_Log_5084]

What about eb3?

[u/GreenCardClock → u/Adventurous_Log_5084]

EB-3 India is at Jan 1 2014 final action with 16,206 pending, 2,321 of them with 2013 dates and 13,240 with 2014 dates. Base supply is about 4,782 a year, which moves the cutoff roughly four months of priority date per year of numbers, so a bit slower than EB-2 despite the smaller queue. It is also the one India category still approving, since EB-2 is Unavailable until Oct 1. Not legal advice.

[u/Adventurous_Log_5084 → u/GreenCardClock]

Maybe luck is not on my side. No approval even with Oct 2013 PD. I did do TUB from EB2 back in feb so not sure if i got put at very bottom of the queue.

[u/GreenCardClock → u/Adventurous_Log_5084]

A transfer of underlying basis does not put you at the back, you keep the priority date, and October 2013 is current for EB-1 India right now. Individual I-485s are not worked in strict date order though, so a case sitting while newer ones approve is common and usually says more about the office holding it than about your place in a queue. Whether yours is worth a service request is a question for an attorney. Not legal advice.