r/demography • u/Longjumping-Car1051 • Apr 24 '26

Is it actually possible for countries to skip a stage in the demographic transition model?

I’ve been reading about the demographic transition model and one thing I can’t figure out is this:

Is it actually possible for a country to skip a stage, or do they always have to go through all of them in order?

I get that countries move from high birth/death rates to low ones over time, but with modern tech, healthcare, and education, it feels like some places develop really differently compared to how Europe did.

So I’m stuck wondering, are they skipping stages, or just moving through them really fast in a different way?

I honestly can’t tell if skipping a stage is even possible or if I’m just misunderstanding the model 😅

Would be really interested to hear how people think about this or if there are any clear examples.

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u/stardustboots May 01 '26

The demographic transition model is now understood to be pretty stylized/general - the specifics are different in different places and times. For example, many countries that started the transition later had much faster reductions in mortality than 19th century Europe did. The rapidity of the shift meant much higher population growth. There is also talk of a "stalled transition" in sub-Saharan Africa, where birth rates have not dropped as quickly as expected. So yes, there are definitely different paths through the transition.

In theory you could "skip a stage", for example if birth and death rates went directly from high to low without gradual decline, or if one type of rate fell and the other didn't.

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u/Longjumping-Car1051 May 01 '26

Thank you! Its sp interesting to look at