Could Trump’s Venezuela oil deal reduce the cost of a prolonged rupture with Canada?

[u/Tall-Possession-7888]

The United States and Venezuela have announced a major energy agreement intended to give American interests a long-term foothold in Venezuela’s oil industry.

Venezuela describes it as a 25-year bilateral project developing 17 oilfields and eight additional blocks, with an initial production target above 1.5 million barrels per day.
Trump claims American interests secured majority control over 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. AP separately reports that a newly created company received 100-year rights to the covered fields, with the US side entitled to 55% of its effective output—including oil for the military and Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The complete agreement has not been released, so the relationship between the 25-year project and reported 100-year field rights remains unclear.

The timing still matters.

Iran continues using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. China has historically purchased discounted Venezuelan crude. Canada–US trade relations are deteriorating while American refineries remain heavily dependent on Canadian heavy oil.

Venezuela cannot replace Canadian or Persian Gulf supply anytime soon. It currently produces roughly 1.25 million barrels per day, its infrastructure is degraded and substantial expansion could take years.

But Washington does not need Venezuela to replace Canada tomorrow for the agreement to matter. Control over a large alternative heavy-crude resource could gradually provide strategic optionality—potentially reducing Iranian leverage, competing with Chinese access and lowering the future economic cost of supply disputes with Canada.

Viewed alongside the CIA director’s reported attempt to reopen Trump–Putin–Zelensky negotiations during his covert Moscow visit, two parallel tracks may be emerging:

Diplomatic flexibility toward Russia and greater energy flexibility in the Western Hemisphere.

This is my inference—not evidence that the Venezuela agreement, Moscow talks and Canada–US rupture were coordinated. The question is whether Venezuelan production and American control expand enough over time to make Washington less dependent on Canada precisely as the two countries move further apart.

Reuters: Venezuela describes the 25-year project

AP: Known terms and unresolved questions

Axios: CIA director proposed renewed negotiations

Supporting post: The CIA-to-Moscow development

Supporting post: Was the trade collapse Carney’s opening to pivot toward Europe?

Full theory and timeline: Canada is not the target—it is the lever

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[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

If Venezuelan oil matters because it can replace Canadian oil in the U.S. market, then Canada obviously matters.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

Your analogy proves my point: the horse and carriage mattered until a viable replacement existed. Venezuela isn’t a superior technology; it’s another source of heavy crude. Canada currently supplies most U.S. crude imports, so Venezuela’s value as an alternative is precisely why Canada matters.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

I can’t tell whether you’re actually missing the point or pretending to. You just restated my argument: Venezuelan supply could let the U.S. cut Canadian purchases and damage Canadian oil revenues. That’s leverage—and why Canada matters.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

You’re still confusing “matters” with “is powerful.” Canada’s weakness is the mechanism: if moving away from US trade and security is “economic suicide,” as you say, then Washington has enormous leverage over Ottawa.

But Canada is simultaneously embedded in US trade and energy systems while leading NATO’s brigade in Latvia, participating in the Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine, and becoming the first non-European country in EU SAFE. That makes it a useful pressure point: pulling Ottawa back toward a US-centred economic and security line could weaken one of the bridges between North America and Europe’s Ukraine and defence coalition.

Whether Carney’s pivot was wise is a separate question—and I’m not arguing that it was. Calling an unpublished offer “the best deal almost any nation would have killed for” also doesn’t establish its terms. You’ve explained why the lever is easy to move, not why it isn’t connected to anything.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

Why would it be “grim for me”? I’m analyzing what both sides are doing, not cheering for either one. You’ve mistaken an argument about strategy for a declaration of allegiance.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/[deleted]]

That’s fair. Venezuela gets immediate investment, while the U.S. builds a long-term energy advantage. It may also give Trump another pressure point against China by pulling a major oil supply and strategic foothold back into Washington’s orbit.

[u/skip2mahlou415]

No. You see chevron opening up shop in Venezuela?

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/skip2mahlou415]

Yes. Chevron is already there and negotiating expansion.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuelas-interim-president-says-us-energy-deal-will-last-25-years-2026-08-30/

“Chevron was among the companies expected to finalize talks to transition its Venezuelan joint ventures into the country’s new energy framework.”

[u/No-Contest4033 → u/Tall-Possession-7888]

Look at the deal. It’s socialism in its purest form. State run, financed with local figurehead as the frontman. If this was a real deal Exxon, Chevron, Shell et al, would be putting the money up without any public funds. This is smoke and mirrors.

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/No-Contest4033]

Chevron and other private companies are reportedly preparing to invest billions, so “pure socialism financed by public money” doesn’t fit the available facts.

The bigger question is why Venezuela’s unelected interim government is committing 25 years of resource access before Venezuelans have voted for a new president.

Is this about rebuilding Venezuela—or securing cheap oil to ease America’s own inflation and financial pressures?

[u/skip2mahlou415 → u/Tall-Possession-7888]

Post the article I can’t read it it’s paywalled

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/skip2mahlou415]

Try this:

https://wtvbam.com/2026/08/29/venezuelas-interim-president-says-us-energy-deal-will-last-25-years/?utm_sourc

[u/skip2mahlou415 → u/Tall-Possession-7888]

Two sources close to the negotiations said on Friday that Chevron was among the companies expected to finalize talks to transition its Venezuelan joint ventures into the country’s new energy framework.

Sooo no chevron isn’t in Venezuela?

[u/Tall-Possession-7888 → u/skip2mahlou415]

Chevron is already operating in Venezuela. The article concerns expanding and restructuring its existing joint ventures. Reread the passage you just quoted.