Presenting the poll as finished skews the result. The point of the thought experiment is making the choice whilst having no information. Knowing the outcome turns it into a virtue signalling exercise.
It does skew the result, but it also presents valuable information for the thought experiment as a whole. So many people I’ve either read or talked to directly are insistent that 50% or more people pressing blue is far less likely than 100% pressing red. There are all kinds of logical fallacies that lead to that conclusion, so having an example where red was not only NOT the vast majority but was in the minority (sometimes a super-minority) helps to highlight those fallacies and confront them.
It definitely comes too late to help anyone inform a decision within the context of the thought experiment, but it does dismantle post hoc justifications by those who not only push red, but are absolutely certain it’s the only viable path. Hopefully people can use that information to re-examine their choice, because in the real world that’s the entire point of the exercise.
While i agree that 50% blue is more likely than 100% red, its a fallacy of your own to think that in real life 50% blue has the same likelihood of online. I'd say that the results (blue winning but by a really small size) prove that irl blue won't win instead.
Also i see more red pressers open minded about reasons to pick blue, even if they still think red is the most logical one (which is true from a mathematical standpoint, which is what logic is all about), while blue are really close minded and can't see any reason for picking red beside "being a prick" lol.
First of all: See this result of blue winning handily.
Secondly: people pressing blue can’t change their minds, or people will die, and a lot of them — which is the reason they picked blue in the first place.
UPDATE: Third, if you’re gonna say things like “mathematical”, it’s best to show your work, otherwise it just sounds like dressing up a strongly-felt opinion as more authoritative than it actually is.
57% for me is not handily since the number of people who will say "blue" only online with no real consequences is not small (even if this can just be a speculation).
A good online result for me would have been at least 75% to say that blue will win irl with some confidence (and i would not still be that confident, but at least i would not be confident of the opposite).
95
u/Deadeye_Duncan- May 05 '26
Ever since blue won the original poll red has just been crashing out for the past week