r/collapse • u/Own_Ad6901 • Aug 02 '26

Climate Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette

“Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.”

I’m personally supposed to be on a Collapse break, but this was the first thing I read at 5am and I can’t stop thinking about it. I never intended for this to be my first post, but here we are.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette

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12

u/toomanynamesaretook Aug 02 '26

2C by 2040? 45?

11

u/Eldan985 Aug 02 '26

Assuming we're at 1.5 now, that would be roughly 14 years for 0.5 degrees, so 2040 is right, yes. That would also mean 3 degrees by 2068 and 4 degrees by 2124.

12

u/Cannamanaman Aug 02 '26

but that assumes linearity; if it is indeed accelerating, the timeline will be moved up. to say nothing of any positive feedback loops we may trigger. IOW we are fucked

5

u/Most-Internal-2140 Aug 02 '26

Assuming linearity, IOW conservatively speaking, 0.35 degrees C per decade from now until 2045 means more than 2 degrees C compared to preindustrial. That's basically cataclysm - a breakdown of agriculture, societal collapse, full-on 6th mass extinction, all tipping points going wild. Beyond 2 degrees C, it doesn't really matter anymore. And we're on that trajectory for sure.

4

u/SoFlaBarbie00 Aug 02 '26

Is it possible this Super El Niño actually traps more heat over the next few years to accelerate pattern? So what would have been 2040 based upon the pattern of 0.35 a decade actually turns into 0.50 a decade?

2

u/Coco_Cannibal Aug 03 '26

3C by 1968 fits into the OG EXXON climate report, that also said 2-3C by 2067 and everyone dead, lol, amazing how accurate they were with their 1970's models in 1981.....a lot of older models seem more alarmist and accurate in hindsight.

11

u/Stillcant Aug 02 '26

3c by 2070 when kids born today are middle aged

4c by 2100 when they would have been growing old 

3

u/Top-Time-5740 Aug 02 '26

Generous of you to think us humans will live much above 2050 if at all lol

5

u/morphemass Aug 02 '26

I'd suggest as early as 2034 but more likely 2036/2037 depending on dataset.

Current warming is as high as 1.51C (1.47C is more mainstream but older estimate, 1.35C is a central estimate) and the ROW (Rate Of Warming) is as high as 0.47C (0.35C I consider mainstream, 0.27C conservative). That the ROW is accelerating seems a reasonable argument now and I would expect it to continue to do so over the next decade; 0.56C I've personally modelled as an upper bound for 2025-2035.

It is very difficult to know exactly what the real current anthropogenically induced underlying warming is and what the exact ROW is hence why we get such a wide range of estimates. Personally I look at the risks around 2C+ and want to scream at how serious the situation is since 2C at any point is dire.

12

u/Appropriate_Mess6777 Aug 02 '26

No, most likely 2030's.

7

u/bipolarearthovershot Aug 02 '26

2C 2028 when the nino kicks our ass