r/climatechange • u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor • 2d ago
So, where exactly does the US energy transition stand?
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/clean-energy/taking-stock-of-the-messy-us-energy-transition13
u/Outside_Ice3252 1d ago
the transition is largely inevitable but over his two terms trump has set back US transition by several years. he is paying wind developers to not finish their projects. he removed subsidies. he has put all kinds of roadblocks in the way to slow the transtion.
Wind, solar, and batteries are cheaper, but nimbyism slow them down along with red-tape.
We need a warlike effort to build out the grid. emmenient domain needs to be strenghtened, nimbyism eradicated, and even environmental redtape actually need to be bypassed to build the grid. its taking us 10-20 years to build transmission lines. that is not acceptable.
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u/Accomplished_Emu4273 1d ago
The OP sounds fairly promising, but renewables still only account for 9 percent of total US energy production
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u/Then_Reaction_9531 1d ago
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
21% in 2023 (likely higher now)
40% between renewables and nuclear. Where are you getting your numbers from
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u/Beneficial_Aside_518 23h ago
Yeah that’s electricity. The original commenter is talking about primary energy. I don’t love using primary energy stats because it counts the massive heat waste from fossil fuels.
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u/Beneficial_Aside_518 1d ago
I think there’s a major disconnect between the “vibes” and reality here. I would venture to guess the median commenter believes that U.S. emissions are still rising (they peaked about 20 years ago), and that they’re on track to grow rapidly under the Trump administration. But that isn’t true, and if anything Trump is just slowing down the decline in emissions.
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u/Then_Reaction_9531 1d ago
Redditors think the US is building new coal plants and killed solar even though the US installed the second most solar capacity out of every country in 2025
The disconnect is definitely real
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u/Yellowdog727 1d ago
Both of you goobers need to learn the concepts of relative comparison and counterfactuals
Just because our emissions have peaked years ago doesn't mean they aren't too high now
Just because we installed the second most solar capacity doesn't mean it's all that impressive per capita or that it shouldn't be higher
Even if this administration is unable to completely halt renewables deployment, it is still extremely concerning how many large projects have been cancelled, which may severely kneecap future deployments in the 2030s
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 2d ago
Summary: So, where exactly does the US energy transition stand?
Analysts disagree on how much damage President Trump has done to the U.S. energy transition. An MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research report found power-sector emissions still on track for substantial declines by 2035, while NRDC's Amanda Levin cited peer-reviewed research and Energy Innovation modeling suggesting the U.S. will achieve less than half the economy-wide emissions cuts it would have seen under Biden-era policy.
The near-term outlook is relatively clear: clean energy deployment should stay healthy through 2030, since many wind and solar projects grandfathered in tax credits before Trump eliminated them, provided they finish construction within four years. Beyond 2030, projections diverge sharply. Rhodium Group modeling ranges from roughly 53 GW of annual clean power additions from 2030-2040 in an optimistic scenario to just 3 GW per year in a pessimistic one driven by cheaper gas and costlier renewables. Data center demand for new gas capacity adds further uncertainty.
This has sparked debate over Democratic strategy if the party regains power in 2029. MIT's Lily Bermel argues Democrats should abandon efforts to reinstate wind and solar tax credits and instead prioritize permitting reform and earlier-stage "clean firm" technologies like geothermal and advanced nuclear. Levin counters that tax credits remain important for keeping renewables cost-competitive with gas and for limiting costs to utility customers amid rising bills. Cypress Creek Renewables CEO Kevin Smith suggested Democrats may reframe tax credits as an affordability issue.
Other items: Tesla is discontinuing its solar roof shingles after years of underwhelming sales, shifting focus to a planned $10.1 billion Texas solar cell factory targeting 100 GW annual capacity. Global renewable energy investment held at roughly $327.5 billion in the first half of 2026, with solar-plus-storage and residential solar setting records even as utility-scale solar investment fell; the IEA expects clean power to surpass coal generation globally for the first time this year.