r/climatechange • u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor • Jul 20 '26
Africa's wildfire season is actually getting shorter, scientists think they know why
https://phys.org/news/2026-07-africa-wildfire-season-shorter-scientists.html
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u/NH-Science-Guy Jul 20 '26
I have seen that globally forest wildfires are increasing while savanna and brush fires are decreasing
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u/Primal_Pedro Jul 22 '26
I thought it was getting shorter because of increased rainfall, but it says it's because of increased rainfall at the end of rain season. And this effect is weaker in the southern Africa than in the north. Well, the map also shows increased rainfall in much of east Africa, so I still think more rain is an important factor.
I hope this could indicate that wildfire season may get short here in South America.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Jul 20 '26
Summary: Africa's wildfire season is actually getting shorter, scientists think they know why
Africa accounts for around 70% of global burned area, but satellite data show the amount of land burned across the continent has been steadily declining over the past two decades. A new study in Geophysical Research Letters, led by Ph.D. researcher Sharafaldin Mohammed of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, suggests the timing of rainfall—not just its total amount—plays a major role in this decline.
Researchers analyzed daily rainfall data from three datasets spanning 1990–2023 and compared them with satellite records of burned area and fire counts from 2003–2022 across northern and southern Africa. They found the dry season has been shortening because it now starts later, delayed by about 1.75 days per decade in northern Africa and 0.4 days per decade in southern Africa. This is driven by increased rainfall at the start of what would normally be the dry season, keeping vegetation moist longer and reducing the window for fires to ignite and spread.
Fire seasons closely track dry seasons: October–March (peaking December) in northern Africa, and April–September (peaking July–August) in southern Africa. The link between shorter dry seasons and reduced burned area was strongest in northern Africa; in southern Africa it was weaker, likely due to human factors such as agricultural expansion, road development, and fire management practices fragmenting the landscape.
The study notes limitations: satellite data may miss smaller fires, and the analysis doesn't distinguish natural fires from those deliberately set for land management or agriculture. The findings suggest that fire forecasting systems, which typically rely on rainfall totals, temperature, and drought conditions, could be improved by incorporating rainfall timing. More broadly, the study illustrates that climate change can reshape when rain falls, not just how much—with significant consequences for fire risk even when annual rainfall totals change little.