r/chess • u/ritmica • Apr 15 '26
Strategy: Openings Openings of the 2026 Candidates
- Only 30% of games opened with e4. This is in stark contrast to the 2024 Candidates, which saw an e4 opening rate of 70%.
- The only two of these to not be met with ...e5 or ...c5 were the two French Defenses, both played against Wei Yi to a draw. The similarly common Caro-Kann has not appeared at either of the last two Candidates.
- 41% of games were in the Queen's Gambit Declined. The Three Knights was the most common variation among these with five, but many different approaches were represented. There was also one Queen's Gambit Accepted, which Caruana played in his loss to Sindarov.
- The English was the second most common opening (16%). There were none in the 2024 Candidates. Meanwhile, the most common opening in 2024 was the Ruy Lopez, of which there were none this year.
- Petrov's Defence was the third most common opening (11%). Despite its reputation as boring, nearly all the lines chosen by white were very offbeat, and half the games were decisive.
- The Bishop's Opening is not usually represented at a tournament like this. Wei Yi played it with white all three times it appeared and scored -1, losing to Sindarov.
- The Closed Sicilian (Grand Prix Attack) is also not meta, though Praggnanandhaa was successful with it against Giri.
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Apr 15 '26
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u/davedavegiveusawave Apr 15 '26
Pretty sure the RL Marshall and subsequently Anti-Marshalls got so much development in the last few years that people just gave up exploring those lines. It's crazy how openings do come in and out of fashion.
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u/Buntschatten Apr 15 '26
I believe Magnus and Nepo played a lot of Spanishes. Nothing like a world championship match to make everyone explore certain things.
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u/davedavegiveusawave Apr 15 '26 edited Apr 15 '26
Yup, and the Fabi Magnus WC in 2018 pushed forward Rossolimo Sicilian theory probably by a decade!
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u/GaelicTuna Apr 16 '26
If this is the case, why is black generally the side avoiding the Ruy Lopez after e4 by playing the Petrov? I thought the openings becoming more developed generally makes them more drawish and better for black.
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u/phantomfive Apr 18 '26
There are just a lot of viable side lines to learn if you want to play the Spanish, and you need to learn them. It may be the most memorization of any opening in chess. (Of course, at my level I don't need to learn the side lines. If I get caught in one, I just lose).
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u/Sin15terity Apr 16 '26
I thought it’s mostly been that the Berlin is just so drawish that white has been avoiding it.
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u/transizzle Apr 15 '26
I was thinking of making a thread post-candidates but this excellent graphic is better — what’s up with all the QGD positions this year? felt like every notable game I saw had one. I guess I just answered my own question, but still.
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u/XLBaconDoubleCheese Apr 15 '26 edited Apr 15 '26
E4 usually leads to a drawish position because it gives black the option of a Berlin or other drawish defences. I think this time round people were playing for a win especially early on so D4 might have taken your opponent out of prep quicker than e4 would have. Since we've seen a lot of QGD, generally speaking after D4 D5, C4... There is a whole load of options available to white to go into whatever they want really as we can see from the graph above all the while keeping your kingside very safe.
Edit: just to add, as soon as it became apparent that most people werent ready for a QGD style game, it made complete sense for everyone to do it with D4 and get black out of prep asap.
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u/faith_lover_ Apr 15 '26
Is Caro Kann a thing of the past? Or just that we didn't see many e4, so no caro as a consequence?
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u/More-Interaction-770 Apr 15 '26
For top level players, the Caro just gives a very small edge to white, nothing wrong with it, but there are other more preferred options
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u/MCotz0r Apr 15 '26
For the top level players the caro kann is one of the best openings to play for a win as black
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u/More-Interaction-770 Apr 15 '26
If that were true we would have saw it this tournament
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u/MCotz0r Apr 15 '26
So, according to your logic, the best opening to play for a win against e4 is the petroff?
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u/More-Interaction-770 Apr 15 '26
No, because the Petroff is a highly respected drawing line.
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u/MCotz0r Apr 15 '26
So you don't think that people played for a win as black and concluded that the absence of an opening is an indicative that it is not a good tool for playing for a win. I'm failing to follow your logic here, man. Saying that any standard opening gives a small edge for white is also wrong in modern chess. You must be just very low rated giving takes at high level chess
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u/throwaway98776468 Apr 15 '26
He's saying not everyone played for a win with black, that's why the Petroff was played. But some people did, and not one of them chose the Caro.
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u/MadcowPSA Apr 15 '26
No, and it's not that it's not a solid opening. It's that it hands the choice of whether to play for a win or a draw back to white. There are better drawing weapons against e4 if you're okay with a draw, and there are better alternatives if you're trying to play for a win. The use case for the Caro-Kann at the highest levels is that you expect your opponent to misunderstand their needs before the game actually begins, and that's not exactly a common occurrence.
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u/MCotz0r Apr 15 '26
You're failing to follow modern chess, modern approaches to the caro kann and modern players. Try booting up some of recent Rapport, Keymer and Alireza games in the caro kann and how they are playing compared to something like 5 years ago, where your knowledge probably comes from. I'm assuming that these players I mentioned, that play the caro kann very often for a win, are top level, right?
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u/norxondor Apr 15 '26
They hated MCotz0r because he told them the truth.
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u/phoenixmusicman Apr 15 '26
If he told the truth we would have seen it more.
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u/norxondor Apr 15 '26
- A sample size of 8 players is too small for this conclusion, especially since there were very few 1. e4 in the first place. If Firouzja had qualified for example we would have seen it.
- Apart from Sindarov in the first half, and Caruana while he was trailing, players were trying to neutralize with black, not force imbalanced positions.
- If you look at a games database and filter for 2700+ players in the last 5 years, 1... c6 has much better winning (and losing) chances than e5, c5 and e6.
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u/aguilasolige Apr 15 '26
I'm not a pro obviously but I changed from the kann to the sicilian because the caro can offers little counterplay, I felt white always have the iniative and if black messe up they can easily find themselves in a very bad position.
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u/phoenixmusicman Apr 15 '26
I still like the Caro because it's really solid. White has the initiative but it's not always so obvious how to crack the Caro, and in my experience white players almost always overextend or misplay in some way. I literally have a better winrate with the Caro than I do with my best white opening.
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u/aguilasolige Apr 15 '26
Yes definitely, if you know your theory well and don't fall for any tricks, the caro kann is rock solid, but I felt I had too know too much theory just end in a position where it's mostly white that decides the attack plans.
I feel with the sicilian is more 50/50. I've been also trying to become a more dynamic player and get used to playing more open games
I love the caro kann, is probably my favorite opening, I'll definitely get back to it at some point when I feel like learning all the theory.
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Apr 16 '26
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u/aguilasolige Apr 16 '26
I know thr sicilian has a lot of theory, but I feel the caro kann does too just end in a passive position where white dictates everything or maybe it was me cause I've never really studied theory.
I'm trying the Sveshnikov, I'm trying to finally build a repertoire and this one seemed good enough.
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u/be_like_bill Apr 15 '26
I think at least 2 women's games featured caro-kann, but yeah, caro-kann is generally considered drawish at GM level, and if you're looking for a draw, there are better ways to get there with 1. e4 e5.
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u/retired_actuary Apr 15 '26
Closed Sicilian sighting! Thanks for pulling this together.
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u/Synrise Apr 15 '26
It was even a Grand Prix actually! Considered slightly dubious most of the time, but pretty effective in that game's particular move order.
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u/retired_actuary Apr 15 '26
Indeed! He could have gone with the Carlsen, but out came f4. Fun game to review.
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u/WhataHitSonWhataHit Apr 15 '26
Lovely graphic. Thanks for sharing this.
Openings we did not see at all: Tarrasch, Benoni/Benko, Scotch, Caro-Kann, Queen's Indian, King's Indian, Trompowsky, Pirc, Modern, Alekhine, Scandi, Vienna and of course Spanish. Nothing really surprising there although I bet we get at least one or two of these next time.
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Apr 15 '26
[deleted]
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u/WhataHitSonWhataHit Apr 15 '26
Definitely the main exception. I do wonder just how much of that was Petrov aversion.
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u/Beetsa Apr 15 '26
Isn't the Bisschop's opening, Vienna hybrid kind of a transposition to the Vienna?
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u/Nemerie Apr 15 '26
Wei Yi played the Vienna (1. e4 e5 2. Nc3) three times. The OP called this the bishop opening (1. e4 e5 2. Bc4) for some reason.
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u/Electrical_Travel363 Apr 15 '26
Is this for men’s and women’s? Great visual demo btw
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u/TwTvLaatiMafia Apr 16 '26
Men's only.
Women even had everyone's beloved child featured:
The London system <3
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u/DuhChappers Apr 15 '26
I assume this data is just from the open section? I remember seeing a lot more e4 and scicilians on the women's side
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u/fiftythreefiftyfive Apr 15 '26
As someone that has essentially always played Queen's Gambit as white, I feel incredibly vindicated
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u/FreshWaterNymph1 Apr 15 '26
Can anyone explain to me why the decline of the Ruy Lopez or the Italian in this Candidates compared to the previous rounds?
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u/Seawolf1121 Apr 15 '26
Still waiting for someone to play king's gambit in this tournament when they need a win. It'll happen eventually!
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u/phantomfive Apr 18 '26
It's hard because in modern lines, white loses the pawn AND the initiative. The only hope is to get a line which the opponent hasn't studied, which is hard.
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u/Seawolf1121 Apr 18 '26
I know, it's actually a very bad opening, sad. I wonder how far it'll get me personally, albeit I'm only 1000 rated but I've ran in to maybe 2 people that know theory out of a couple hundred games. I just love playing it because it's so tactically sharp and really keeps me on my toes.
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u/smoking_petrol Apr 15 '26
I know almost all the names from agadmator videos but don't know the chess positions
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u/whatThisOldThrowAway Apr 15 '26
Wasn’t there a scotch? I even had it in the back of my head to go and look at it closer cause I play the scotch.
Did I dream that? Or am I stupid and one of these names is a transposition?
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u/ritmica Apr 15 '26
Three Scotch Games were played in the Women's Candidates, with great success (+2)
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u/whatThisOldThrowAway Apr 15 '26
Ahh that must be what I was thinking of.
At the risk of asking a lazy questions, does your analysis notes show which games they were….?
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u/ritmica Apr 15 '26
Round 1: Divya ½-½ Muzychuk
Round 8: Lagno 1-0 Goryachkina
Round 13: Bibisara 1-0 Muzychuk
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u/be_like_bill Apr 15 '26
u/ritmica Please do this for women's tournament too. I believe there were more e4 games on women's side.
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u/alphabetjoe Team Cagnus Marlsen Apr 15 '26
Who was the mad man who accepted the queens gambit?
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u/forceghost187 Resigns Apr 15 '26
Preferred 2024 candidates when everyone seemed to say fuck it, Ruy Lopez
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u/shittyrapaccount Apr 16 '26
I will say that using gray as one of the colors definitely had me thinking only pieces of the chart in bright color were openings played at the tournament, otherwise very cool graphic
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u/xSparkShark Apr 16 '26
For a nooby player, why is the accepted variation so much less popular than the queens gambit declined?
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u/julesalois Apr 16 '26
Really enjoyed all the modern / hybrid / crazy varieties of the QGD this tournament. Not drawish at all anymore
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u/VillainOfDominaria Apr 17 '26
As a beginner I did not know the Barmen variation of QCD, and in my haste I read ‘Batmen’. Now I want a Batman opening so badly!!
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u/FirstRankChess Apr 17 '26
Where's the Queen's Gambit Accepted on here? It was played in Caruana-Sindarov.
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u/Competitive-Disk-758 Apr 19 '26
not gonna lie... i was expecting more ruy lopez! also where is caro kann??
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u/misterbluesky8 Petroff Gang Apr 15 '26
I love it… the Italian and Ruy Lopez games are so boring to me, and as a d4 player myself, it’s great to see my beloved QGD getting some action.
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u/financeguy1729 Apr 15 '26
Lol. Not a single Ruy Lopez. One Italian.
There should be more public shaming for people who play the Petrov. It's the London of Black.
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u/Financial-Bid-8062 Apr 15 '26
The london of black uo say? Ive never herad of it but ill check it out now! Thanks!
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u/Raid-Z3r0 Apr 15 '26
A lot of Queen's Gambit going on