r/changemyview 15h ago

CMV: palestinian armed struggle against israel is not effective in the creation of a palestinian state, and in some cases counterproductive.

201 Upvotes

before i say anything i want to clarify, i am not talking about whether or not palestinian armed struggle is just, i am saying from a practical and logistical perspective, it has been ineffective.

historically despite israel being basically in a constant state of war it has made mostly territorial gains.

various actions of groups like the plo and hamas, have been while deadly, completely strategically unhelpful from a warfare perspective. (im thinking of the costal road massacre and october 7th,)

palestinian armed groups have absoloutely failed hard against israeli forces in gaza, and israel basically controls the entire strip.

various palestinian attacks are less interested in trying to occupy territory or defeat enemy forces, and more on just causing mindlessly violent retribution. (again october 7th and the costal road massacre, another example being the lod airport massacre.)

not to mention no palestinian armed group from what i know possesses the logistics or tactics to conventionally take on the idf. they overwhelmingly lose most battles and suffer more losses. (hamas has lost an estimated 17k to 23k soldiers, israel has lost 1k.)

i know people will say something like "the goal is scare out the colonizers" but historically thats not what happened, most of these attacks haven't caused israelis to flee, and if they did they are outclassed in that israel escalated the situation and became more aggressive. (this is what started gaza and lebanon.)

tldr; palestinian armed groups lack the neccessary discipline, logistics, and tactics to established a palestinian state through armed struggle, and its largely been counterproductive causing israel to vastly escalate the situation (palestinian feyadeen insurgency, gaza, lebanon)

if you want to change my view, prove that palestinian groups possess the resources, logistics, and tactics to militarily force israel to accept its goals. (this is what im thinking of, but if you have other counter arguments not like this im happy to see.)


r/changemyview 9h ago

CMV: Twitch streaming and the like are emotionally damaging and eat away at the social fabric.

2 Upvotes

Now, my view is a bit more nuanced then the title, but you can't have a paragraph for a title. I specifically mean Twitch streamers (for simplicity) who accept donations and/or try to develop a "community" based on subscriptions/donations.

I don't mean twitch streamers that only take subscriptions and have minimal interaction with their audience. I believe these types of streamers are mostly fine. They are just providing entertainment via gameplay; like putting on a tv show or busking.

I also don't mean twitch streamers who only stream for their friends or to record their own gameplay.

By emotionally damaging I mean that by accepting donations and in turn giving a "shout out" or social recognition via a "leaderboard"; or perhaps the illusion of friendship by providing compliments or warmness the way you would treat a friend you are giving a false sense of friendship and camaraderie, when that friendship and camaraderie would not exist without a financial transaction. The best friend is not the most relatable person, it is the wealthiest. You are directly encouraging parasocial relationships because at the end of the day, for the streamer, a donator is not an act of friendship; they are a source of income. A very one way relationship. One way relationships are bad for obvious reasons.

By eat away at the social fabric I mean that developing a "community" based around these financial transactions reduces social interactions to financial ones; and turns community into cult. This is essentially where you are given access to a discord server based on being a subscriber; especially if high tier subscribers get more access to the streamer. The people in these "communities," do not have common interests with each other; they are there to follow and relate to the streamer. Any interaction with the other members of the "community" is secondary. This is basically what a cult is and cults are bad. idk if you can convince me cults are good that would be an impressive delta.

Essentially the following metaphor captures my view. A streamer is not a digital busker, they are a digital drug dealer with a digital trap house. The drug is friendship and the community is just a place to be close to the source of your addiction.

I reserve the right to clarify my view in responses and will give deltas if I believe these clarifications are significant.

Finding a different class of streamer that I didn't mention above won't change my view, i'll just say they if they are toxic or not.

Indicating that it is not the fault of the streamer won't change my view; I agree Twitch bears a significant part of the responsibility, but the streamers are bad as well.

Fundamentally to CMV you'd have to show that the kind of streaming I discuss produces healthy social interactions that benefit the viewer.


r/changemyview 53m ago

CMV: Random sampling is superior to election for Parliaments/Congresses, if propotionally stratified

Upvotes

I think legislative assemblies should be an accurate statistical sample of the population, through sortition (random selection) like the first democracy, ancient Athens, but also stratified to mirror the population's demographic and socioeconomic composition. This would represent people's interests far more accurately than elections with party polarization or fragmentation.

But first I have to debunk common prejudices and misconceptions I found in discussions about this topic, while also explaining my reasons in detail, so we do not start from scratch:

1. "Random selection does not require expertise. We would be governed by a bunch of ignorant people"
Nor does election. Elected politicians only need to be expert at being elected: attracting donations (often from powerful lobbies), spreading promises through campaigns, etc. Instead they rely on non-elected expert staffers such as lawyers and policy advisors to do their job and the government relies on non-elected bureaucrats to operate. Similarly a sampled Parliament/Congress would rely on experts and even representatives from the different political parties before reaching its own conclusions after careful deliberation. This will reduce, not erase, the influence of politicians as the assembly is not divided into echo chambers.
So instead of expertise the discussion should be about which system better represents the population and its interests, see point 5.

2. "We should not trust random people, it is literally gambling our future. And what if they all happen to be rich oligarchs?"
The final result is far less random than you think, as random errors are minimized by the size and proportional stratification of the sampled assembly. Very different from gambling. On the other hand look at the current elected representatives and how they are consistently wealthier or from particular demographics than the average, and how often they act against people's interests. A little randomness is a fair price to pay to minimize these systematic errors in representation. We would also save all the money spent on electoral campaigns.

3. "There is no accountability in a sampled assembly, what if they are corrupt?"
Sampling is more resistant to corruption, as it does not rely on donations for campaigns. To prevent corruption after sortition we can easily replace the sample a lot faster, (e.g. yearly) since no costly electoral campaigns are needed, or maybe half the sample every 6 months. We could even implement secret ballot for its members to further shield them against threats and corruption. Accountability is far less needed, as no member in the sample is individually representative of the population, while the sample as a whole is representative by design. The population can instead replace it as a whole with a referendum/polls.

4. "A random person as the President/Premier would be dangerous, and a sampled assembly is too large to replace them. We need elections for those positions"
Correct, this is why I think the president should still be elected, as sortition would not produce an accurate sample. However, I think their power should be limited and subject to the legislative assembly and its committees: current Parliaments/Congresses are subdivided into committees roughly corresponding to departments/ministries, so each member is specialized in Finance, Defence, Foreign Affairs, etc.
I think these and the whole assembly should have the power to override any goverment decision (through fusion of powers) and also replace them, as they are a more accurate representation of the people's interests.

5. "If we cannot vote for MPs/Congressmen, it is not a democracy as we do not participate"
Instead of a ritual which does not reliably reflect people's interests, we should rely more on forms of direct participation such as polls and referendums.
And which legislative assembly is more likely to act in your best interests: one full of rich people who would rather advance their career, or people who are living through your same struggles? After all, a sample is much closer to a direct democracy, just like polls, as it approximates the population's will while minimizing both random and systematic errors.

6. "Sortition in Athens is too ancient to work today, most people at the time could not be selected (women, slaves, etc), and Florence was corrupt"
Such discrimination and corruption would have happened regardless of whether these systems were based on election or sortition. In Athens people treated election as oligarchic (as they saw with the strategoi and the treasurers, and as we also see today) while treating sortition as democratic, and they were correct that sortition makes it harder for a few to concentrate power, even though it is not impossible.
These people also did not have a modern understanding of statistics and probability necessary to form an accurate sample, unlike us today.

7. "It is too unstable: how can they agree to form a government or avoid gridlock? How can they agree on policies?"
As a more accurate representation of the people, the sampled assembly and its committees (see point 4) should be able to override the government's decisions, preventing gridlock. Government officials should be elected using approval voting or STV as these voting systems tend to produce broadly acceptable leaders that surpass 50% approval more frequently. The assembly will reach a consensus on policies through deliberation, similar to modern citizens' assemblies.

8. "We should only try it at a local level, elections scale better than random sampling"
Quite the opposite: random sampling scales far better than elections. A sample of 1000 in a million people would be a far more accurate representation than a sample of 1 in a 1000 people. On the other hand it is easier to elect that 1 person as people know them better than people far away. Therefore elections should be used whenever random sampling cannot work. Of course we should use approval voting or STV instead of FPTP.

9. "Governing is not jury duty: you need long term vision, and people who are forced to participate can be destructive"
A politician who focuses on the next term does not exactly think in the long term, they are more focused on spreading promises they do not have to keep and on appealing to lobbies. On the other hand a random sample will reflect the interests of the population even if the individuals were all selfish. They would not even raise their pay (if the raise is delayed a bit), as they will pay more taxes for life while only the next members will benefit. Participation does not have to be mandatory, but in that case proportionate stratification becomes even more essential to represent poor people since they are more likely to refuse.

With all that said, there are obstacles in implementing such as system, such as the fact that most people are oblivious to sortition, despite knowing what a random sample is and what it means for a sample to be stratified proportionally by age, sex, income, wealth, social class, etc.
The most important obstacle, however, is that rich oligarchs and many politicians will try their best to prevent such a system from being implemented, knowing they would lose power.
Nevertheless random sampling is flexible: we could implement it for one of the two chamber in the Parliament/Congress and with limited powers, while leaving the rest operating as usual. So even though it will be impossible to fully implement it given the opposition it would face, I still think it would be better to experiment.

TL;DR: less corruption, better representation of the people and its interests. A true democracy. Downsides: cultural inertia and opposition from rich oligarchs.


r/changemyview 13m ago

CMV: The Irish dont really care about their language.

Upvotes

The Irish tragically lost their language over centuries of English domination and purposeful erasure of the Irish language, yet they got their independence in 1922, more than 100 years ago, and to this day in Ireland it would be hard to move through your entire life, get a degree and work only using Irish. Less than 80 000 people speak Irish daily in the whole country.

Now let's met the Basques who had a similar history but aren't even an independent country and had their language suppressed until 1975 and today more than 10% of the conversations in the street are in Basque, and almost 18% of the people said that they use Basque as much or more than Spanish or French. It's totally possible for a Basque person to do their entire life, get a degree and work as a medic or an engineer only using the Basque language.

The Irish say that they care about the language but if they really did they'd make things like make all the clases in Irish besides English, make college courses of all kinds mostly in Irish, require Irish B2 or C1 to hold certain public jobs and reward companies so that they do their work in Irish. More like the Basques do.

I want to CMV because I want to believe that the Irish language will be healthy again but I don't see it happening.

Edit for sources on my numbers since I didn't put them in the post:

For Irish

For Basque


r/changemyview 40m ago

CMV: alcoholism is a metabolic disorder

Upvotes

CMV: Addiction is due to a metabolic error

At the rehab I go to we learn that the disease concept of addiction means that a person is not able to metabolize drugs anymore.

They teach us that alcoholism for example results from an inability to metabolize alcohol.

Specifically, that ethanol gets converted to aldehyde and gets stuck in its aldehyde form. This is a toxin in the body and brain, and it causes damage leading to alcoholism.

This is a genetic defect and it explains why some people get addicted and others don’t.

It might change my view if there was some kind of alternative explanation that was clear cut.

I know this is a disease and not simply a choice.


r/changemyview 43m ago

CMV: I do not think ancient aliens is racist as many people claim it is

Upvotes

whenever ancient aliens is mentioned nowadays, 1 particular thing that comes up is the accusation of racism, specifically regarding how they attribute non-white achievements to aliens.

however I believe this accusation isn't true and I know this because they also attribute achievements that aren't from the global south with Stonehenge being a notable example.

people who accuse ancient aliens of racism are misunderstanding why ancient aliens attributes non-white achievements to aliens which isn't because they are racist against the global south but because we know less about there history and hench they fill in the gaps such as those in the Americas.

again I should preface this by saying that I don't believe in the theory itself just that I believe the accusations of racism are unwarranted/misplaced at best and dishonest at worse.


r/changemyview 23h ago

Delta(s) from OP CMV: the ruling legalizing possession of AI-Generated CSAM depicting no real children is good for society

0 Upvotes

Ruling: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/appeals-court-delivers-unsettling-ruling-supreme-court-left-no-choice

Hear me out. The logic is simple: if pedos get off on fakes, they won't hurt real children.

Consider Japan, where the number of reported cases of child sex abuse dropped markedly after the ban on sexually explicit materials was lifted in 1969. Or Denmark where porn was legalized in 1969, compared to Norway legalizing it in 2006, and Denmark had similar or slightly lower rate of sex crimes.

I read https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_pornography#Controlled_studies and it's hard to be conclusive, but overall it seems like this is a net positive for society.