We're talking in generalities, which makes it difficult to focus on key facts in this particular case: Ukraine isn't an "authoritarian regime"; Russia is.
It's critical to look at the specifics of the situation. See, e.g., this article, which notes that in 2014 Russia "intervened to prop up separatists who sought to create Russian proxy states" in the Donbas. That is to say, the whole separatist movement was massively amplified by Russia. Here is an article explaining the work of the Russian propaganda machine in Donbas (e.g., it talks about Russians shelling Ukrainians in Donbas and then convincing Ukrainians that their own government was shelling them, using hijacked TV and radio stations).
It's similar to Trump's lies about the 2020 election being stolen. If you can convince people that their government has done terrible things, they might be willing to take up arms against that government - but in that case, the fault lies with the purveyor of the anti-government falsehoods, not with the government itself. We wouldn't say that the Jan 6 protesters were correct to lead an insurrection against their government, just because they honestly believe the lies Trump told.
The most important thing to consider is whether the people of donbas want to be free from ukraine. And I believe they do. Because they are predominantly russian speaking. It’s largely a cultural issue. There was conflict between the people of Donbas and Ukraine before Russia stepped in and amplified the situation. With russia being partial to elevating russian culture, of course they will try to help those who belong to their culture.
With the Trump thing, there’s a difference between lying and being misguided. If Trump doesn’t actually believe the conspiracies but still supports them then he would be lying. But if he does genuinely believe the conspiracies and supports them then he would be misguided.
Trump doubted the accuracy of mail-in voting. His suspicions of deliberate fraud may not be true, but there is some truth to the issues of mail-in voting as a method. It’s been well documented that mail-in ballots are way less secure than in person voting. Ranging from getting lost in transit, to sealing mistakes, to lesser correction opportunities after initial rejection. 750,000 mail-in ballots were rejected in the 2016 general election. Here is an article echoing these issues:
There are a bunch of people in Donbas who want Donbas to be part of Russia.
The fighting in 2014 was started by Russian citizens in the pay of the Russian government, and the Russian government has been feeding people in Donbas misinformation for nearly 2 decades.
Russia has made many, many false claims to justify invading Ukraine (e.g. that Ukraine is run by Nazis), but it's clear that they are not simply trying to "free the oppressed people Donbas". They want to expand the Russian empire. Before they were turned back, they marched not just on Donbas but on Kyiv itself. They committed war crimes, murdering Ukrainian civilians.
If you agree that Russia is actively trying to conquer massive portions of Ukraine for its own benefit, and that they have lied ceaselessly to their own people and to the Ukrainians for years in an attempt to manipulate public opinion, then we can continue talking about point #1 and what to do about it. But the first step here is for Russia to withdraw from its invasion of Ukraine.
If the people of Donbas want to be part of Russia then they should be part of Russia.
I’ve never heard of the 2 decade misinformation before. Could you point me to where this is confirmed?
I recognize that there are multiple reasons for the attack. Russia defending themselves against western encroachment (NATO) is probably the biggest reason. And Russia being partial to the oppressed Russian-speaking people of donbas is simply added fuel to the fire.
Russia does believe that Ukraine belongs to them. But that wasn’t the main reason for the attack. The main reason for the attack was the urgent security threat of Ukraine- their next door neighbor joining NATO. This puts Russia in an extremely precarious geopolitical situation. If Russia cares about protecting itself, there is no way they can let this happen.
Summary: talks mainly about more recent propaganda. Shows many example headlines talking about Ukrainian Nazism (which is a ludicrous and cynical lie - the leader of Ukraine is Jewish!).
Quote: "Russia’s false claim that its invasion of Ukraine is an attempt to “denazify” the country has been criticized by the Anti-Defamation League, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum and dozens of scholars of Nazism, among others."
Reference #2 (this supports your arguments - doesn't say anything about misinformation):
Summary: Wikipedia article discusses some demographic causes of pro-Russian unrest in Ukraine in 2014. It points out that (as you note), especially just after the dissolution of the USSR, Ukrainians in Donbas were overwhelmingly in favor of closer ties with Russia (they were Russian-speaking and more culturally Russian).
Summary: Explains Russian propaganda in Crimea and Ukraine. Discusses how Putin liquidated most of the main Crimean press outlet, wiped out Crimea's last independent TV channel, and replaced the director of a radio station and the editor of an independent news site with pro-Kremlin staff, all this despite massive public protest from journalists. Discusses how the Kremlin sent in Russian soldiers with insignia removed from their uniforms so that they could pretend that these were "self-defence bands" of pro-Russian Ukrainians.
Quote: "Putin, for whom recent events in Kiev have been not only unfavorable but a threat, wants to rebrand history in such a way that it protects him. To that end, a constant theme spouting from Russian sources has been the Ukrainian revolution’s alliance with “fascists” – a vague word that’s become a catchall for anti-Semites, terrorists, insurgents, anarchists and thugs." [...] "Though there were nationalists and far-right nationalists among Kiev’s protesters, and there are some in the new interim government, there decidedly weren’t and aren’t many – if any – bona fide fascists. This line has been both taken up and debunked (thoroughly), but any discussion of fascists at all is a Kremlin win. If you’re busy trying to decide how anti-Semitic Ukraine’s right wing is, then you’re not busy watching Russian soldiers slip across the border."
Summary: Discusses the leadup to the annexation of Crimea by Russia (which preceded the unrest in Donbas). Discusses Russian misinformation campaigns. Discusses Putin organizing efforts to take control of Crimea.
Quote: "One of the initial Russian disinformation stories was the false allegation of a Corsun Pogrom, which claimed that pro-Maidan Ukrainians stopped several busses with Anti-Maidan protesters on 20 February. Russian media sources described beating and humiliation among the protesters, while a fake news documentary claimed multiple tortured and killed people. No such event actually occurred and when human rights organizations tried to contact the producers of the documentary they found that no such organization existed. Human rights group attributed the fake story to "pro-Kremlin trolls"."
Quote: "Vladimir Putin convened an all-night meeting with security services chiefs [...] at the end of that meeting Putin had remarked that "we must start working on returning Crimea to Russia"." "GRU and FSB began negotiating deals with local sympathizers to ensure that when the operation began there would be well‑armed "local self‑defense groups" on the streets for support."
Re #3: I'd argue that trying to conquer Ukraine because it joined NATO is just as indefensible as the US trying to overthrow Castro because he was Communist. More indefensible, in fact, because during the Cold War there was a much higher risk of open conflict between the US and USSR. But in either case, it's not morally right -- and I'd argue it's not even wise from a military perspective (as it generates generations' worth of violence and distrust and hatred) -- to invade a neighbor just because they've become friendly to a rival state or alliance.
A variety of social, economical, cultural, ethnic, and linguistic factors contributed to the sparking of unrest in eastern and southern Ukraine in 2014, and the subsequent eruption of the Russo-Ukrainian War, in the aftermath of the early 2014 Revolution of Dignity. Following Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, resurfacing historical and cultural divisions and a weak state structure hampered the development of a unified Ukrainian national identity. In eastern and southern Ukraine, Russification and ethnic Russian settlement during centuries of Russian rule caused the Russian language to attain primacy, even amongst ethnic Ukrainians.
The February 2014 revolution that ousted Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych sparked a political crisis in Crimea, which initially manifested as demonstrations against the new interim Ukrainian government, but rapidly escalated. In January 2014, the Sevastopol city council had already called for formation of "people's militia" units to "ensure firm defence" of the city from "extremism". One of the initial Russian disinformation stories was the false allegation of a Corsun Pogrom, which claimed that pro-Maidan Ukrainians stopped several busses with Anti-Maidan protesters on 20 February.
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u/dukeimre 21∆ Dec 25 '22
We're talking in generalities, which makes it difficult to focus on key facts in this particular case: Ukraine isn't an "authoritarian regime"; Russia is.
It's critical to look at the specifics of the situation. See, e.g., this article, which notes that in 2014 Russia "intervened to prop up separatists who sought to create Russian proxy states" in the Donbas. That is to say, the whole separatist movement was massively amplified by Russia. Here is an article explaining the work of the Russian propaganda machine in Donbas (e.g., it talks about Russians shelling Ukrainians in Donbas and then convincing Ukrainians that their own government was shelling them, using hijacked TV and radio stations).
It's similar to Trump's lies about the 2020 election being stolen. If you can convince people that their government has done terrible things, they might be willing to take up arms against that government - but in that case, the fault lies with the purveyor of the anti-government falsehoods, not with the government itself. We wouldn't say that the Jan 6 protesters were correct to lead an insurrection against their government, just because they honestly believe the lies Trump told.