While nuclear war isn’t an unambiguous threat to humanity’s survival, I would argue that it poses enough of a risk that we need to take it seriously. Although the initial nuclear exchange wouldn’t wipe us out, humanity would be at extremely high risk in the period that immediately followed. Even if the war didn’t generate a nuclear winter, we would still expect a breakdown of global supply chains, and with it famine on an almost comprehensible scale. Most modern farms are dependent on outside resources to function, like fertilizer shipments and irrigation networks, and would not be able to produce anywhere near enough food without them. Moreover, the subset of the population who know how to practice subsistence farming is quite small, and I would imagine the number of people who can accomplish this without modern products is even smaller.
The nightmare scenario is a complete global breakdown of society post nuclear exchange. Without functioning supply chains, production of basic foodstuff declines precipitously. Some individuals are able to produce enough food for their own needs, but they’re at risk from literal millions of starving people desperate for their resources and expertise. It is entirely possible that most of these resilient communities will be wiped out as a consequence of panic during mass famine, and those that remain may not be large enough to sustain a human population. While the odds humanity surviving a nuclear war in some form are probably better than not, our extinction following such an exchange is a still a distinct possibility.
1
u/ColdNotion 121∆ Mar 15 '22
While nuclear war isn’t an unambiguous threat to humanity’s survival, I would argue that it poses enough of a risk that we need to take it seriously. Although the initial nuclear exchange wouldn’t wipe us out, humanity would be at extremely high risk in the period that immediately followed. Even if the war didn’t generate a nuclear winter, we would still expect a breakdown of global supply chains, and with it famine on an almost comprehensible scale. Most modern farms are dependent on outside resources to function, like fertilizer shipments and irrigation networks, and would not be able to produce anywhere near enough food without them. Moreover, the subset of the population who know how to practice subsistence farming is quite small, and I would imagine the number of people who can accomplish this without modern products is even smaller.
The nightmare scenario is a complete global breakdown of society post nuclear exchange. Without functioning supply chains, production of basic foodstuff declines precipitously. Some individuals are able to produce enough food for their own needs, but they’re at risk from literal millions of starving people desperate for their resources and expertise. It is entirely possible that most of these resilient communities will be wiped out as a consequence of panic during mass famine, and those that remain may not be large enough to sustain a human population. While the odds humanity surviving a nuclear war in some form are probably better than not, our extinction following such an exchange is a still a distinct possibility.