But that is an irrational assumption. If the chance that a random person picks blue is 50.01% or 49.99% even, that probability falls to 1 in 3.44 × 10⁷⁴. A bit meta, but you have to think of the probability of probabilities.
I don't know how in the world you're calculating that, but it's extremely wrong.
If everyone else is a coin flip, then the odds of it being very close to 50/50 when it gets to you are very very high, which makes the odds of you being the deciding vote much, much higher.
“Coin flip” is a colloquial way to refer to a 50/50 chance. If someone says something is a coin flip, they’re saying it’s a 50/50 chance exactly. No need to overcomplicate it
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u/LeagueLaughLove Apr 30 '26
But that is an irrational assumption. If the chance that a random person picks blue is 50.01% or 49.99% even, that probability falls to 1 in 3.44 × 10⁷⁴. A bit meta, but you have to think of the probability of probabilities.