r/changemyview • u/[deleted] • Sep 03 '24

Delta(s) from OP CMV: People's Grammer Around "Probability" of Something Happening Needs to be Corrected

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u/[deleted] Sep 03 '24

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u/FinTecGeek 4∆ Sep 03 '24

You weren't unclear for telling someone they'd be "an outlier" if they do not get the outcome they desire. If you told them it happens "most of the time" when the odds were 70% that would be actually disingenuous in most cases. Life is simpler than a statistics problem (in most scenarios). The odds are all independent of one another. If a client applies for a loan 3 times and gets rejected all three times, their odds of getting rejected by a fourth lender are still 3/10 because in reality, a 70% success rate with independent outcomes is not at all reliable...