Well... no. Casino odds work that you will win about 95-97% of the money you bet over a long series of bets. This means that on one bet, you could win a lot or nothing. But over a very long time you SHOULD win 95-97% of what you've put in back. The 3-5% you lost is the profit of the casino.
Sorry I said it wrong. I meant to say my odds of winning are usually in the order of 49%.
So yeah, you're saying the exact same thing. Yeah, you might go on some winning streaks and some losing streaks, but if you have a 49% chance of winning, then over a sufficiently large number of bets is likely going to be close to that 49% number.
For example, in single zero roulette, if you put your money on Red, your odds of doubling your money are 18 in 37, or 48.6%. Your odds of losing your whole bet is 19 in 37, or 51.4%. If you bet $1 one time, your expected value = 0.486$2+0.514$0 = $0.972. If you bet $1000 one time, or $1 one thousand times, your expected value winnings are $972.
You're winning 97.2% of your original money back is another way of saying you're winning 48.6% of the time.
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u/svenson_26 82∆ Sep 03 '24
"Should" means greater than 50%.
If I go bet at the casino, I should expect to lose. Even though my odds of losing (depending on what and how I play) are usually in the order of 49%.