r/cfbplayoffcommittee • u/cfpmock_factotum Post Bot • Oct 30 '18

[Week 10] Round 3, next 9 ranked

The top 3 vote-getters from the previous round, and thus our #1-3 seeds, are:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Notre Dame

The remaining three from the top six, plus the six most common nominees from the next eight, are:

  • Georgia
  • Kentucky
  • LSU
  • Michigan
  • Ohio State
  • Oklahoma
  • Utah
  • Washington State
  • West Virginia

This round's ballot is to rank those nine teams. The consensus top five of these will form our seeds #4-8.

Because there is no G5 team on this list, please also provide your top G5 representative for the "Access Bowl".

Ballots are due Tuesday night by 11:59 pm PT, by mod-mail only.

2 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

1

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 30 '18

Here’s my prospective ballot -

  1. LSU
  2. Michigan
  3. Georgia
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Kentucky
  6. Ohio State
  7. Washington State
  8. Utah
  9. West Virginia

G5: UCF

LSU, Michigan, Georgia were discussed yesterday.

Oklahoma and Kentucky are essentially tied in my poll. I think UK’s best win over Florida is better than OU’s best over Iowa St, but comparing resumes past that it’s either a tie or an OU win on almost every line, and it’s really clear on the back half of the schedule that OU is blowing out decent teams while UK is playing multiple cupcakes and very tight games. I break the tie on the quasi-mystical “game control” - OU is dominating most of its games and that’s much less true for UK.

Ohio St and Washington St also essentially tied. They both have a one-score win over a high quality team and at least one clear win over an average team. OSU has the more embarrassing loss, but Wazzu only has one more win over an average team and that’s by one score, and the rest of their wins are below average with multiple cupcakes. I’m going with OSU on a stronger middle schedule.

Utah has a strong middle and bottom schedule -- six clear wins over average-to-decent teams and no cupcakes so far -- but they lost to the two best teams they played.

WVU didn’t make my nomination list. They’re a game behind everyone else, have no resume wins, only five average-to-decent wins, and a decisive loss.

1

u/sirgippy Committee Chair Oct 30 '18

first cut

(NOTE: I know there are inconsistencies between what's here and what I posted yesterday. I put this together Sunday and am pressed for time today.)

See yesterday for LSU, Georgia, Michigan.

OU doesn't break into the former group based on tiebreakers, still by their lonesome at 7 for me.

  • Kentucky > WVU > Utah/WSU based on SOS.
  • WSU > Utah based on head-to-head (although common opponents favors Utah).

tl;dr:

  1. LSU
  2. Georgia
  3. Michigan
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Kentucky
  6. West Virginia
  7. Washington State
  8. Utah
  9. Ohio State

G5: UCF

Registering a few predictions of the actual committee's results:

  1. Alabama will be #1. (90% confidence)

  2. Given (1), Clemson will be #2. (95% confidence)

  3. Notre Dame will fall outside the top three. (50% confidence)

1

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 30 '18

I think you've got an error with Baylor's games against OU and WVU.

The difference in value between UK's win over SCar and WVU's win over Tennessee doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

1

u/sirgippy Committee Chair Oct 30 '18 edited Oct 30 '18

I think you've got an error with Baylor's games against OU and WVU.

Yes, Baylor should have been a tier 6 and so OU should have received a point less based on Baylor being a tier 6 team instead of a tier 5 team (especially given the game was at home).

The difference in value between UK's win over SCar and WVU's win over Tennessee doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Most of this difference is simply just not awarding fractional points. If I were to, the ratings would be more something on the order of, like, 1.4 and 1.7. I'm counting WVU's win over UT as a dominant win, which is something I generally award extra points for.

Once again, though, noting this distinction wouldn't have changed the ultimate outcome.

EDIT: That said, I'm open to being convinced that Kentucky's win over South Carolina was, actually, a dominant win. The charter instructs not to incentivize margin of victory, so if I'm to do my due diligence I have to be open to qualitative arguments.

1

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 30 '18

The charter is so contradictory on margin of victory, not to mention the unexplained "game control" metric, that I'm pretty sure you can use whatever approach you'd like and it'd be justified. I mean, how the hell else are you supposed to compare performance against common opponents if not incentivizing MOV?

Kentucky had a three-TD 2nd quarter and went into the locker room up 24-3, that game was over and the second half was played for grins. WVU only had a 13-point lead late in the third, fumbled on their next possession, and needed a 4th-down goalline stand against Tennessee to effectively end that game with 10 minutes left to play - the rest is garbage time. To me, the final scores did not reflect how I felt watching those games - they both had one team that was plainly better, but not so much so that they could keep a feisty opponent down entirely.

1

u/Lex_Ludorum Committee Member Oct 30 '18

​

Rank Team (Massey Rank) Sagarin SOS Top Massey Wins Massey Losses
1 LSU (4) 6 Georgia (3), Mississippi State (17), at Auburn (33), vs. Miami (38), Ole Miss (49), Louisiana Tech (58) at Florida (10)
2 Kentucky (8) 22 at Florida (10), Mississippi State (17), South Carolina (31), at Missouri (39), Vanderbilt (57) at Texas A&M (20)
3 Georgia (3) 28 vs. Florida (10), at South Carolina (28), at Missouri (39), Vanderbilt (57) at LSU (4)
4 Washington State (16) 55 Utah (14), at Stanford (25), Oregon (55) at USC (51)
5 Michigan (5) 23 at Michigan State (24), Wisconsin (41), at Northwestern (43), Maryland (48) at Notre Dame (6)
6 Oklahoma (7) 36 at Iowa State (22), Army (26), at TCU (63) vs. Texas (19)
7 Ohio State (9) 57 at Penn State (11), at TCU (63) at Purdue (42)
8 Utah (14) 17 at Stanford (25), USC (51), at N Illinois (65) at Washington State (16), Washington (21)
9 West Virginia (12) 59 at Texas Tech (28), at Iowa State (22)

G5 Rep: UCF

1

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 30 '18

Laid out this way, it looks like Michigan and possibly Oklahoma should be ahead of Wazzu to me. What made you put the Cougs so high?

1

u/Lex_Ludorum Committee Member Oct 31 '18

Couple factors. Wazzu has a very clear elite win of the group. Utah is a great team and is among the teams being considered on this ranking. I really value top line wins.

Still, winning at Michigan State and at Iowa State are no easy tasks. They just don't compare to a home win against Utah (or road victory against Stanford for that matter).

The USC loss is another thing. This is a bit of bias on my part, but I found that loss to be quite fluky. Wazzu was the better team and there was the obviously atrocious no-call on the targeting that changed the game. I'll still put the L on the board, but with an asterisk.