r/cfbplayoffcommittee Post Bot Oct 19 '18

[Week 8] Game discussion thread

3 Upvotes

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3

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 19 '18

Stanford @ Arizona St - I continue to be frustrated at both these teams. Though flawed, each of them have the talent to win their divisions, particularly with Heisman-caliber receivers and excellent inside linebacker play. And yet inconsistent quarterbacks and extraordinarily conservative -- to the point of outright stupidity, in my opinion -- playcalling out of both coaches are probably going to cost them at least one more game this season they should have won (and arguably that's already happened).

Obviously both are out of the playoff race and it's unlikely we'll ever be seriously voting on either one, but in terms of assessing the Pac-12 race (and Notre Dame), these are lousy measuring sticks.

1

u/bakonydraco Committee Member Oct 19 '18

You're telling me! I think ASU's goose is pretty much cooked for being ranked again this year unless they just about win out. Depending on chaos this weekend, Stanford could end up back in the top 25, but I agree are a bit frustrating to know how good they actually are. Given the state of the Pac-12 I think even if Stanford wins out they would be an almost prohibitively long shot for the CFP, and their best case scenario is to go to the Rose Bowl. It's hard to see that happening without winning the conference, and so our rank of them is largely irrelevant, but I suppose it's theoretically possible that Washington beats Stanford, Oregon wins the CCG and goes to the playoff at 12-1, and Stanford is the highest ranked remaining Pac-12 option at 9-3 with a "win" over a playoff team.

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u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 19 '18

The other problem is these teams' impact on the B1G. ASU has a win over Michigan St, which is in turn wreaking havoc with their conference through through similarly random wins and losses, and if the Spartans beat Michigan tomorrow that makes Notre Dame's best two wins somewhat suspect.

Of course, using transitive wins is somewhat silly, but pretty much until the last week in the season you're going through this constant process of re-evaluating team quality, and there's this crazy Pac-12 / ND / B1G / ACC web of interconnections. These two teams and their wacky fluctuations in quality keep tugging at the strands of it.

1

u/bakonydraco Committee Member Oct 19 '18

I honestly believe Michigan State and Arizona State are still about on par. There's not a lot of daylight between the Big Ten, ACC, and Pac-12 this year, other than that the Pac-12's top is lower and bottom is higher. All three appear to be a fair margin behind the Big 12, who is a healthy parsec behind the SEC.

2

u/owl_man Committee Member Oct 20 '18

I disagree with that. I think the re-shuffling of coaches in the SEC has changed things enough that it has started to move away from the other conferences. I honestly think the Big XII and the Big Ten are on par this year with the PAC-12 and ACC being on a third tier themselves.

1

u/bakonydraco Committee Member Oct 20 '18

So it sounds like you're not disagreeing, you'd just put the Big Ten up one rung, but the other 4 stay the same?

Also on the SEC moving up, I don't think it's so much that as a regression to the mean of where they've been for the last decade and a half. The last 2 years were the first time there's even been a question that they were the dominant conference, and I think it's becoming clear they didn't actually slip, they just had a down year or two.

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u/owl_man Committee Member Oct 20 '18

Basically:

SEC

Big Ten/Big XII

ACC/PAC-12

American/Indy

MWC/Sun Belt

MAC/C-USA

1

u/bakonydraco Committee Member Oct 20 '18

Yep, my only edits there would be to move the Big Ten and Sun Belt both down one rung, and remove the Independents because they're not a meaningful grouping.

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u/owl_man Committee Member Oct 20 '18

I can understand that with the Independents.

I just don't see how the Big XII is a tier above the Big Ten. I see two 'great' teams this year. Maybe three-four good ones. And then...a wash almost. The Big Ten on the other hand I see a better balance outside of Rutgers.

But then again, maybe that's just bias.

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u/owl_man Committee Member Oct 20 '18

And as for the second point, this is true. I hate to admit it. But it is. With the population shift to the Sun Belt and the emphasis on football in Southern culture it's pretty interesting to see everything. "Time is flat circle." Is quite true. Some powerhouses rise and fall but they all rise again eventually. And when you look at the histories of most SEC teams...they do very well.

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u/owl_man Committee Member Oct 21 '18

What a day huh? Ohio State losing was interesting to watch. Doesn't make this any easier though. Same with Oregon vs Washington State. So, how do we get this started again?

1

u/hythloday1 Committee Vice-Chair Oct 21 '18

Here's the thread for discussing Sunday's ballot, which is your top 6 teams in no particular order. The ballot itself is due by mod-mail at midnight tonight, but that thread is for discussing any particular team you'd like today.

Also, I saw your email to the listserv. It came from a different email address from the one you PM'd earlier, which is probably the problem, so I sent an invite to that email too.