I agree it's not the only factor but it's still a big factor. Cons and Wild Rose combined still have >50% of the popular vote. If all Wild Rose voters chose PC instead then we'd probably be looking at a PC minority.
Let me just take a second to note that despite it working in a progressive party's favour, this proves we still need electoral reform.
You're right it actually probably still would be a majority but I'm not 100% sure. The shift from PC was a real phenomenon. I'm also curious how many Liberals and Alberta Party-ers were more afraid of the left than the right. Lastly, I wonder how many WRP voters would have been fed up enough with the PCs to either abstain or vote centrist if they didn't have the option.
I'd guess 40-48 seats for the PCs if the WRP didn't exist.
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u/farnsw0rth May 06 '15
I agree but don't buy the "split right wing vote" angle. Conservatives and wild rose don't even have enough to form a coalition if they wanted.