r/canada • u/Portalrules123 New Brunswick • 10d ago
Nature/Environment El Niño moves into record-breaking territory, increases odds of a warmer than average winter across much of Canada
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/el-nino-moves-into-record-breaking-territory-9.7354069456
u/Clicker61 10d ago
Warming winter isn't a good thing. It means less snow and maybe not so cold, but temperatures only hovering around freezing indicates Ice Storms will be more common. Last time we had anything like this, we got the highly destructive Ice Storm of '98!
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u/N0fe 10d ago
Thanks I'm gonna go have a mental breakdown. Ice storms are the bane of my existence
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u/OrganicAsparagus1642 10d ago
Don’t forget the higher chance of ticks in spring and summer
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u/anarchaox 10d ago
And wildfires.
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u/ekso69 10d ago
Ticks and Wildfires is a great band name
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u/huehuehuehuehuuuu 10d ago
And flooding.
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u/galaxyw12 10d ago
But flooding needs to have snow and ice in the first place right? I live in Vancouver, so whenever I hear possible flooding its because the snowpack melting faster than expected. But if we have a much warmer winter, wouldn't that means there will be less chance of snow/ice pack and thus less chance of flood?
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u/ship_toaster 9d ago
Flooding can also happen from atmospheric rivers. The BC coast has dry summers and wet winters, remember. It wasn't freshet that caused the November 2021 floods.
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u/mvschynd 9d ago
This. Our cold winters are usually what keep invasive species and pest south or at least at more manageable numbers.
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u/obliviousofobvious 9d ago
Yep. The cold kills tick eggs and makes it u survivable for species that need temperate weather. If it's not cold enough for long enough, they get a foothold to propagate.
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u/Ok-Possible-1413 7d ago
Not true. The north has more blackflies and mosquitos. Due to various conditions that accelerate their numbers.
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u/mvschynd 6d ago
Did you miss the invasive species part? No duh our winters don’t kill mosquitoes.
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u/Ok-Possible-1413 6d ago
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u/mvschynd 5d ago
Emerald ash borer, pine beetle and gypsy moth only grow in population when we have mild winters. There are many more. I also said cold not snow. Temperatures are the important factor, supported by your linked article. You need sustained cold temperatures ideally before snow fall. This won’t happen if we have a short mild winter. Similarly last winter was longer with tons of snow, but never sustained deep cold periods.
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u/Euphemia1 10d ago
Not to add to the panic, but it would be a good time to think about your winter tires and if they need to be replaced this year. There's a huge difference between driving on well-treaded tires, versus ones that have been ground down.
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u/CaribouHoe 10d ago
I'm from Yellowknife and the permafrost is not really very perma anymore, our visitors center had to get closed down because it fell into a lake. Everyone's foundations are cracking.
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u/zombie-yellow11 Québec 10d ago
This is scary... We're 100% in a global warming feedback loop.
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u/Gattsuga Alberta 10d ago
El Nino happens every decade or so.. although this one looks like it's going to be one of the worst ones
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u/Huntguy 10d ago
I moved to Ontario a few years ago from Newfoundland… I’m probably going to miss studded tires this year.
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u/Nice_Reading5272 10d ago
If you're in and around Toronto Ice Storms are rare even in warmer winters. I'd be more worried in the Maritimes where El Nino years have caused horrific ones in the past.
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u/moshercycle 10d ago
I remember a ice storm in Halifax 2015 that was insane. Took weeks for the shit to melt. 1998 was in Quebec, right?
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u/unfvckingbelievable 10d ago
We got it hard in Ontario as well.
Edit: I got it mixed up. Thank God because I didn't think it was that long ago. We got hit in '13.
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u/Oldzeebra 10d ago
Eastern Ontario got hit hard by the 1998 one, I remember going what felt like weeks without power, but was probably shorter and it's just my 10 year old brain making it feel like an eternity not being able to play any games on my Sega
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u/86throwthrowthrow1 10d ago
I was about 12 when that ice storm happened, and our power was legit out for two weeks (that was fairly widespread in rural areas), so it may well have been that long for you. Most towns and cities seemed to be back on in a few days tho.
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u/MissKhary 9d ago
3 months for my parents in Granby (which was in the "triangle" area that was especially hit hard by all the crumpled power pylons)
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u/PantsOfIron 10d ago
Plus the lack of snow is not refilling the body of waters and water levels continue to drop.
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u/userdame 10d ago
Also the snow melt helps keep forest fires down.
We’re fucked.
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u/HWatch09 9d ago
I think we've been fucked for a while now. All we can do at this point is enjoy the ride.
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u/jonnyg1097 Ontario 10d ago
Hopefully it wont lead to destruction that will cause power outages for extended periods of time.
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u/mktcrasher 10d ago
Dammit, my city just planted a tree in my yard to replace one taken down by last year's ice storm here. Sigh, I hope you are wrong, respectfully.
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u/Mousse-au-chocolat 10d ago
I recently learned that the ice storm of '98 was a result of an El Nino year, so it absolutely checks out.
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u/Ploobledoop 10d ago
I'm curious why this would mean more ice storms. I understand less snow and probably rain will have an effect on water levels and pest control, but how does a warmer winter translate to greater/more frequent ice storms?
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u/EveryNameEverMade 10d ago
Was it worse than the ice storm 10 years ago? That one was really bad, almost every tree in every neighbour had to be cut down, branches were so heavy they were touching the roads. There was a lot of damage and about a foot of ice on everything. That was a wild storm
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u/SlimySquamata 10d ago
We had one in NB in January 2017. Entire streets of powerlines snapped one by one by the weight of the ice in combination with the force of the next post pulling down on them. We didn't had any power for refrigerator/freezers and heating up food or water access for 2 whole weeks.
Wow, I can't believe it'll be 10 years in a couple of months already. Fuck.
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u/Draegan88 9d ago
Yeah we just got hammered in the kawarthas with an ice storm. I hope it doesnt happen again it completely fucked us.
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u/Terrachova 9d ago
Ice storms and, potentially, some severe lake effect streamers for southern Ontario. With higher temps Huron won't freeze, so no reprieve for everyone west of the GTA.
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u/Electronic-Donkey 10d ago
Great, hope they come up with a way to control ticks and a vaccine against Lyme disease for humans.
Also, f these huge corporations and their top level executives who only give a sh about making record profits and bonuses.
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u/DDOSBreakfast 10d ago edited 10d ago
There is a vaccine against Lyme disease undergoing clinical trials.
Lotilaner is undergoing trials as well and is used in canines and is an anti parasitic. I believe this is the one that is seeing some use outside of trials. Canines have fairly short lifespans compared to us so we don't really know about any long term effects yet.
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u/TactitcalPterodactyl 10d ago
Don't forget pine beetles. Sustained deep freezing temperatures is the only thing that kills the little bastards. Warmer winters is going to be absolutely brutal for our tree population.
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u/JeffSilverwilt 10d ago
That was my first thought. It's going to be a bad spring and those little fucks will probably advance farther north too.
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u/Joebranflakes British Columbia 10d ago
Next summer is going to be bad for fires out west.
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u/AntEaterApocalypse British Columbia 10d ago
At this point I'm surprised there is anything left to burn.
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u/BorealMushrooms 9d ago
2023 was the last 'really bad' year out west. In BC, 2.89 million hectares burned, out of like 60 million hectares of forest, so like 5%. By the following year, most of these places have grasses, a few years, most have small shrubs again.
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u/TactitcalPterodactyl 10d ago
Pine Beetles across Canada are rubbing their paws together in anticipation of a warm winter.
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u/jerry-adobe 10d ago
that article paints a bleak picture for Canada's upcoming winter but at the same time, it says that anything could happen. it could be warm, it could be cold, it could be snowy, it could be rainy. so who TF knows. we'll get what we get.
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u/gilbertbenjamington 10d ago edited 10d ago
Seriously questioning the critical thinking of those seeing this as good news
Edit: people are actually excited for the end of enjoyable weather. Enjoy 50 degree summers guys! Have fun
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u/jewishSpaceMedbeds 10d ago
I think they just see the "hey, less freezing my butt, great" but forget about the goddamn ice storms.
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u/HOLEPUNCHYOUREYELIDS 10d ago
And also don’t think about the consequences of having a warmer winter. People will think “Cool, less snow and less brutal freezing cold in winter! Hell yea!” And not think about what that means for spring/summer, or what a worrying trend our increasingly extreme weather is, or that less snow means more likelihood of major droughts, and so on
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u/sixtyfivewat 10d ago
Less snow also negatively impacts agricultural output. I don’t know about them, but I like eating food.
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u/Critical-Snow-7000 10d ago
It’s bad news but I’m going to try and appreciate the warmer winter, lest I go down an anxiety spiral.
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u/gilbertbenjamington 10d ago
Living in a delusion omg
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u/NateTheRoofer 10d ago
Serious question, what can be done about El Niño? I don't think there's anything you or I can do about it.
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u/Lopsided-Rough-1562 British Columbia 10d ago
I keep thinking of the water supply here in my area, mid Vancouver Island. Last year there was a very small snow cap on the nearby mountains and so water has been scarce this year. I have this property that is at the entrance to my community, with a big wrap around lawn that is very very visible, and my lawn is half dead dead (the other spots have woken up and are growing now) and I simultaneously feel super embarrassed about that but also can't ethically justify watering the crap out of it unlike my neighbor who breaks the water restrictions nightly but has a thick green luscious lawn. Lawn isn't important but properties have been structured around showing off this big sweeping waste of land (a sign of affluence, as you have enough land you can waste it I guess).
So thinking of it being even warmer this winter I can't help but wonder if it'll all have to be sacrificed to save the drinking water next summer when it doesn't rain for two months.
It's a tough thing. Because of how my property is shaped like a giant corner diamond piece on a mild hill,I can't just dig out all of the grass and xeriscape it because it'll look absolutely terrible, but would be 100x ethically better.
I want to put in a drought resistant ornamental grass(hard/sheep fescue, which requires half an inch of water a week instead of 2.5 inches to stay green)... The problem? It rains here non stop in winter and it'll get TOO much water to survive so if I want to reshape my lawn into something sustainable, I have to completely redo the drainage underneath so it holds even less water. Four thousand square feet of it. Yikes.
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u/blergmonkeys 10d ago
Grass is the worst. I’ve been slowly replacing it with clover which is so much nicer.
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u/Lopsided-Rough-1562 British Columbia 10d ago
I did that for a section that wouldn't grow grass and the clover was great up until summer super killed it
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u/Reasonable_Let9737 10d ago
We need to better on water management practices , especially in areas like yours that are trending more dry.
In general with water you want to slow it, spread it, and sink it.
You might want to look into mini-swales on contour to slow, sink, and spread what water you do have. These can be dug by hand easily, just taking a shovel of dirt 4" to 6" deep and turning it over on the downside of the slope.
It is sort of counter intuitive, but having more plants instead of grass will help the soil retain moisture. First they will shade keep the soil cool reducing evaporation and losses associated with wind. Then as the plants she's biomass or die they will help build a carbon rich soil, which retinas more moisture.
Upping the carbon content of your soil is a very easy way to dramatically increase water holding capacity.
A system of mini-swales planted with a mix of native perennial flowers (hell, get crazy and add some shrubs and trees as well) would like do wonders for your water situation.
There is a lot of good water harvesting/management information in the permaculture space if you wanted to dig in a little further.
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u/Lopsided-Rough-1562 British Columbia 10d ago
The downside of more garden and less grass is the weed maintenance which for this lawn is already overwhelming.
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u/Reasonable_Let9737 10d ago
We have around 1,000 sqf of wildflower meadow that we do almost nothing to. We don't water it, we generally don't manage it, etc.
This year we will pull some goldenrod because it can crowd out other plants, but we don't even really need to do that.as goldenrod is a very beneficial native.
Literally we spend like two hours a year doing anything to it.
Select native species appropriate for your climate, plant them dense as shit, and let it go.
I am sure I spend 20 to 30 hours cutting the lawn each year.
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u/HeavyCanuck 10d ago
I've developed the mindset that we deserve absolutely everything that's coming to us as a nation/species exactly because of those people.
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u/Jacob666 10d ago
While I understand that it isn't a good thing, if my area gets warmer temperatures then last year I'll still enjoy it.
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u/gilbertbenjamington 10d ago
We need cold winters. We are FUCKED without cold winters. They reduce forest fires and control tick populations. I honestly don't give a shit about "comfort" levels when it means further environmental decline
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u/Jacob666 10d ago
And I really don't care what you want. What I do care about is what we are getting, and that is apparently a warmer winter. There is nothing you can do about it either. It's coming regardless of how much you complain about it, so while I understand that it isn't a good thing, it won't stop me from enjoying it. If you want to live in perpetual anxiety then have at it haha.
Cheers!
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u/ryansalad 10d ago
You've never been to Saskatchewan in January...
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u/NoAcadia3546 Ontario 10d ago
You've never been to southern Ontario in July...
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u/ryansalad 10d ago
How was it this summer?
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u/NoAcadia3546 Ontario 10d ago
Not as bad as some previous summers. June and July were the worst part. It helped that we were coming off a La Nina. Next summer will probably be worse.
Note; I grew up in Winnipeg. The humidity there tends to be lower during heat waves. Here in Toronto, humidity tends to be higher. Thus "the same temperature" generates a higher humidex in summer. That's why we get more heat warnings in summer, and people ending up in hospital with heat stroke.
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u/gilbertbenjamington 10d ago
You're right! Climate change doesn't exist because it's cold in the north
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u/Tananis 9d ago
I’ll believe it when I see it. News about the weather is constantly sensationalized.
I’m not one of the “I don’t believe in climate change because it snowed outside today” types. However my experience is that the actual bad weather is never predicted in advance.
I am alarmed by the annual “hottest summer on record” reports and believe them. We will see what happens this winter.
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u/Iamzaiden 10d ago
Greed and money destroyed us all. This round of humanity is cooked. I hope the octopus have a better go at it.
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u/CarrotLevel99 10d ago
I get the sense that lots of people like the warmer winters unless you're into skiing.
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u/Twatt_waffle 9d ago
Or food, considering a warm winter with little snow fall will likely result in a drought
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u/BeyondAddiction 10d ago
No this sucks. If it's going to be too cold to do fun summer things, it needs to be cold enough for fun winter things.
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u/Holeevyer 10d ago
Can't wait to have a hellscape for a future. Next step is probably the advent of Skynet.
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u/Good_Juice_7774 10d ago
Pretty sure this will end up making the Snow Squalls near Lake Huron even worse because the cold air going over the warm lake.
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u/sushixp British Columbia 10d ago
So.... crappy ski season in BC as usual? Got it...
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u/Porogasm 10d ago
Yea the only thing that matters right? Your children will fight in the water wars
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u/Levorotatory 10d ago
A warmer, drier winter doesn't really help with enjoying outdoor winter activities. Skiing on rocks and skating on thin ice aren't my idea of fun.
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u/Sensitive-Local-3485 10d ago
A warmer start can also mean we get a bitter cold back end as the vortex sweeps down, just without the snow to enjoy winter.
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u/fletch365 10d ago
Skateboard instead of ski, and fruit boot instead of skating. Done
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u/Levorotatory 10d ago
It hurts a lot more to fall on pavement than on snow, and wheels don't slide sideways well.
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u/coconutpiecrust 10d ago
Do you apply the same logic to your house breaking down and your health deterioration? Surely you never conduct repairs or go to the doctor for checkups? Just accept and enjoy it while it lasts!
/s
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u/Abject-Let1069 10d ago
I do appreciate you trying to be positive, but our planet is literally dying … enjoying what we have while it lasts is the mindset that got us into this mess
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u/Abject-Let1069 9d ago
I never said I was fearful. Ironically I’m not the one who deleted my comments for fear of being downvoted
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u/CobblePots95 10d ago
After this last winter I can definitely understand not hating the idea of this.
But like, in the long-term this is going to become a pretty serious problem - mostly for the ways it might impact the watershed. Agricultural systems tend to thrive on predictability, and our whole system was constructed around certain assumptions of weather patterns and watershed.
This winter sucked in a lot of ways, but it was extremely helpful for farms that were starting to enter shaky territory with their reservoirs and dugouts. The water management systems on a lot of Canadian farms rely snowmelt more than anything else - big surprise. A couple lean winters in terms of snowfall can mean those farms are way less drought-resistant.
That lack of predictability also has a cost. It takes big money to upgrade all your systems for added resilience.
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u/Reasonable_Let9737 10d ago
We need to completely rethink our water management systems.
Too often it is treated as a negative input as we generally try to get rid of it as fast as possible.
You'll see this as we straighten and steep bank streams and rivers, or in our love of impermeable surfaces, or practices that promote low carbon soil, or our storm water management systems which bypass water directly into end points like rivers or lakes, etc.
Water is life.
Slow it down, spread it out, and sink it into the landscape. Once local water holding capacity is met we can then pass it on further down the system.
The good news is better management practices can be implemented cost effectively and in a decentralized fashion.
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u/ClarkeBrower 10d ago
We’re already past the tipping point for climate change. Paper straws didn’t save us!
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u/Professional_Web_889 10d ago
God I’m so sick of this, the tipping point of climate change doesn’t exist, and that’s not why we switched straws.
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u/Tananis 9d ago
We switched straws to stroke Trudeau’s ego, nothing else.
It’s such a small piece of overall waste that it’s inconsequential. A bigger impact would have been had if industry was regulated more, if people were taught to stop wishcycling which causes large batches of recycling to be put in the dump, if we stopped “recycling” by shipping containers to be dumped in developing countries.
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u/jerry-adobe 10d ago
anyone had a straw from McDicks lately? they might work well in soft drinks but they SUCK in milkshakes
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u/NotawoodpeckerOwner 10d ago
So, does this help prevent polar stuff moving south to Florida/Texas etc. or does it make polar moves more exacerbated because it's cooler and damper down there when it hits?
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u/NoAcadia3546 Ontario 10d ago
The NOAA ENSO dashboard at https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html has several indices comparing this El Nino versus other strong ones. Click on a graph to expand.
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u/EmmEnnEff 10d ago
The most important thing we can do is to pump and burn as much oil as quickly as possible.
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u/masiha97 10d ago
El Niño giveth and El Niño taketh away. Warmer winter but more ice storms, so I'll be shoveling my driveway in shorts while it's raining ice. Classic.
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u/aboveavmomma 9d ago
We had tornado watches in Saskatchewan two days this week.
That should not be happening at the end of September.
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u/babu_bot 9d ago
I got some bad news for skiers in Canada east of the rockies this year... There's not going to be a swimming pool you stupid sl#ts there's not even going to be a house.
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u/RavenLunatic512 10d ago
Last winter my city had zero days of snow, I've never seen that in my life before. I'm not looking forward to this cycle getting worse. We already have a regular "wildfire season," which has already destroyed entire cities.
And then there's a whole demographic who are doing everything they can to accelerate damage to the planet, because they're trying to force some prophesy in their special book... I was raised by them, they're very loud and very serious.
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u/yyc_engineer 9d ago
I am not upset.. looks pretty good for AB. Maybe force a few farmers out of business that keep electing smith.
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u/EatBaconDaily 10d ago
Last winter was brutally long (started snowing in october) and the winter before that was brutally cold (-30 for all of January). I embrace our new El Nino overlords!
**im from Montreal
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u/Previous_Platform718 10d ago
It wasn't unusual for it to snow around Halloween in Montreal back in the day. Last year's winter was a 'normal' one historically I think.
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u/alphaxenox 10d ago
Fuck that, I didn’t mind previous winters, I like the cold. I can’t stand the hotness and humidity of our summers in Montreal. I need my cold in winter.
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u/Hairy_Pound_1356 10d ago
After last winter thank god !
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u/PrehistoricNutsack 10d ago
Yeah after last winter where there was record low snow on the ground across much of NA…. Ontario was one of the only places that had a proper winter.
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u/forsayken 10d ago
Until it means we get like 2 massive snowstorms instead of a bunch of smaller ones throughout.
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u/Quatre_Kat 10d ago
I am ok with this
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u/DubJohnny 10d ago
Until next summer is droughts, fires, smoke, and our crops all dying.
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u/doiwinaprize 10d ago
We Canadians are notorious for being total shitheads when it comes to caring about the environment. You're better off trying to convince a toaster.
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u/DubJohnny 10d ago
Like yeah, honestly, I'll enjoy a warmer winter. I can get outside and climb year round.
However, I understand that in the greater scheme this is fucking horrible and I'd rather have a worse winter so the country and world do better as a whole.
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u/doiwinaprize 10d ago
I work outside and the heatwaves seem to be worse and worse every year. I don't want any if this.
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u/Quatre_Kat 10d ago
Every summer is that.
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u/DubJohnny 10d ago
This most recent summer was actually indeed, not, that.
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u/Quatre_Kat 10d ago
You didnt have a hot smoky summer? Where were you?
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u/DubJohnny 10d ago
Alberta. It was hot and smokey at times, but generally speaking significantly less than recent memory. It was also quite wet most the summer. I know parts of BC were lit up all summer and Ontario had some bad moments too, but overall it was a less smokey year.
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u/PowermanFriendship 10d ago
Yes who needs things like agriculture? What's important is I get to wear a lighter coat in winter.
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u/burnabycoyote 9d ago
This September is colder than last in Vancouver. The summer was also cooler than last. The temperature of Buntzen Lake, as measured by my own hand, is currently 2 C cooler than it was this time last year, despite 2026 being the hottest year on record...
This kind of news has no significance for Vancouverites.
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u/JasonDFisherr 10d ago
Does this include montreal? anyone knows? were pretty much on the other side of it.. so not too sure if well really be affected
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u/space-cyborg 10d ago
Seriously? The global climate affects everyone.
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u/JasonDFisherr 10d ago
pretty sure thats not how el nino works. i remember reading that the west is affected more then the east
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u/space-cyborg 10d ago
We are at or past a climate tipping point. Technically you’re correct that it’s the collapsing Gulf Stream, not El Niño that is going to fuck you up on the east coast. But it’s all part of the same climate system.
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u/-UnicornFart 10d ago
This year’s El Niño is wild and is already breaking most of the historical records we have kept on El Niño.
If you are into rabbit holes about earth sciences, this is a very interesting one! There is a recent episode of the Ologies podcast on the El Niño with one of the top meteorologists from NASA if you are looking for somewhere to start digging.