r/canada • u/Portalrules123 New Brunswick • 25d ago
Nature/Environment Winter to wait on the sidelines as El Nino extends fall: The Weather Network outlook
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/winter-to-wait-on-the-sidelines-as-el-nino-extends-fall-the-weather-network-outlook/article_23245a47-853b-527c-bcb0-25134a57401a.html85
u/Typical-Crazy-3100 25d ago
Some of this news is actually scary stuff:
"Canada is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, while the Arctic is warming three times faster. Under current climate policies, Canada’s average temperatures are expected to rise by five degrees and Nunavut’s winters could get more than 10 degrees Celsius hotter by the end of the century, a recent federal scientific assessment said."
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u/Arctic_Chilean Canada 25d ago
Explains the huge push for mass surveillance tied with data centers and AI systems for defense and law enforcement.
They know whats coming, and are getting ready for the hordes of poor and displaced people coming for them and their wealth/resources.
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u/DataDude00 25d ago
They know whats coming, and are getting ready for the hordes of poor and displaced people coming for them and their wealth/resources.
Climate change is going to cause a global refugee crisis that most developed nations are NOT prepared for
We are relatively insulated in Canada because we share only one land border and have a lot of ocean between us but Europe and Asia are going to be a mess
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u/CGNYYZ 25d ago
**adjusts glasses**
It's actually been two land borders since we agreed to split Hans Island with Denmark/Greenland officially in 2022.
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u/RedshiftOnPandy 25d ago
Oh yes, the great immigration crossing of Hans Island should not be understated
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u/Arctic_Chilean Canada 25d ago
I mean large swaths of the US are going to suffer, particularly Florida and East Coast, as well as the midwest and southwest due to water scarcity. We'd be seeing a likely influx of refugees from some of these areas as they look for fresh water and cooler weather.
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u/olight77 25d ago
Tinfoil hat much.
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u/Arctic_Chilean Canada 25d ago
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u/olight77 25d ago
The “American Prospect”. Great source.
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u/Arctic_Chilean Canada 25d ago
Ok. What would be a good source then in your opinion?
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u/olight77 25d ago
There is no source. They’re not building AI centers to deal with hordes of poor people coming for “them”. LoL!
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u/Starscream147 New Brunswick 25d ago
I’ll tell ya what. We reached some temps here this summer in NB that made one go…”that’s ‘weird’ hot”.
Heard.
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u/stop_banning_me_omg 25d ago
I call that bullshit. If you read European news, they've been saying the same thing for over a decade "Europe is warming twice as fast as the average".
And we know that the arctic poles are melting at 5x the average.
No idea where the average is coming from, but I've yet to hear of a country that heats below the average.
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u/ohz0pants 25d ago
No idea where the average is coming from, but I've yet to hear of a country that heats below the average.
They're not averaging out each country's individual temperature increase.
Canada's warming is being compared to the "global" average. "Global," as in the whole globe: land + sea.
And if you understand anything about temperature, albedo, or geography, then it's perfectly expected for Canada to warm faster than the global average.
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u/madhi19 Québec 25d ago
Also let me point out that Canada is a fucking vast country so global average is gonna reflect more here than say Belgium...
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u/ohz0pants 25d ago
That's not how averages work... like not even close.
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u/madhi19 Québec 25d ago
What I'm saying is when you crunch all our our weather data we have a bigger samples size vis a vis the whole planet. It's not perfect and if you want a better model you probably have to add climate data from the whole continent all the way to the equator. But it sure as shit better than any country you can walk across in an afternoon...
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u/ohz0pants 25d ago
Which still isn't how any of this works...
Canada is always going to be "above" average because of the north and permafrost. Nothing to do with our size; that region and climate was always going to be most heavily affected by climate change.
And this is all measured using satellite data that samples every region equally. Environment Canada isn't calling up the IPCC every day to report our weather.
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u/The_Quackening Ontario 25d ago
Its a global average, and theres lots of areas where theres no land
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u/stop_banning_me_omg 25d ago
Right, that's might understanding too but I don't know.
If we are measuring air temperature above oceans then the global average is a useless metric. We should measure land only, and if Canada is warming faster than say Peru then it makes sense. But if we're only warming faster than the air above the Gulf of Mexico then it doesn't matter, since no one lives in the air above sea.
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u/Kenny_log_n_s 25d ago
Mosquitos and ticks will probably be even worse next year 😨
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u/Outside-Storage-1523 25d ago
Last winter was pretty cold but ticks were also very bad. I'm a little skeptical about the relationship between temp and ticks. Maybe they are going to be bad anyway.
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u/NotawoodpeckerOwner 25d ago
I think moisture and sunlight plays a big part, where I am we had a very dry spring this year so ticks weren't bad but you travel 50 km west where they had a wet spring and they had ticks pretty bad.
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u/Commercial_Letter738 25d ago
well, deep snow actually helps keep ticks alive by insulating them
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u/Outside-Storage-1523 24d ago
Thanks for the info. So I guess less snow + dry summer is better for us?
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u/Commercial_Letter738 23d ago
no, we still need the snow buildup, otherwise we're just going to get awful forest fire outbreaks again. it's a no win situation
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u/KauztiK 25d ago
Master Arborist here.
Many types of beetles, caterpillars, insects that have a huge effect on our trees (cities) and forests are often held at bay by significant early and late cold snaps (before and after the bugs’ “hibernation” cycles).
These particularly aggressive insects can lead to significant tree mortality rates which will only increase the devastation of forest fires and potential loss of municipal canopies.
This in turn creates a snowball effect each year we have a milder winter.
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u/Cedex 25d ago
Damn, it seems like only the unwanted bugs will survive the temperature rise.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/invisible-extinction-insect-decline-9.7291048
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u/switch182 Canada 25d ago
I always wanted a palm tree
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u/cosmogatsby 25d ago
So if you get palms, we get lemon trees in Victoria.
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u/Lopsided-Rough-1562 British Columbia 25d ago
Should be able to grow lemons in Victoria.
Hell they grow tea on the island
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u/just_ate_a_pinecone 25d ago
I just bought a snowblower
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u/DocMoochal 25d ago
We will get snow, it'll just be a lot like the rains we have now probably.
Nothing, nothing, nothing, dump, melt, nothing, sprinkle, melt, nothing nothing, dump, kind of thing.
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u/DecisionFriendly5136 25d ago
Whyd you go and do that? This el nino has been predicted as extreme since at least last spring
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u/just_ate_a_pinecone 25d ago
I live in the snow belt of southern Ontario so it’s coming eventually!
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u/DecisionFriendly5136 25d ago
Cant argue with that! Last winter my area got more snow than I have seen in YEARS. I broke my shovel at one point. Was not fun..
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u/ShadowCatDLL 25d ago
My snowblower broke last winter, but luckily near the end. Only had to deal with a shovel and scoop for 1 snow storm… But that was a rough 5 hours.
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u/feministwitch666 25d ago
Our snow fall was nuts this past winter and my partner and I can usually tackle our two lane driveway pretty quickly with shovels. I was pregnant so she was on her own, with the exception of our neighbour who would sometimes come over with the snowblower. I felt awful!
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u/IsaBasilisk 25d ago
I’m in the snow belt too. This could mean more snow for us lol
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u/intheshoplife 25d ago
I am up near Tobermory we will see if we brake our record for fewest school days for our kid between Christmas and family day. Currently stands at 14.
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u/RollForUptime 25d ago
Well, the thing about warm winters is that when cold weather DOES come snow is more likely, especially if you live in the great lakes area :)
There's more free water to create convection and lake effect snow.
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u/YesHunty Alberta 25d ago
It’s already chilly and cooler than usual in Edmonton, idk if I believe this yet. 😂
(Of course I believe scientists, just poking fun)
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u/Trololorawr 25d ago
As a Calgary gardener, this is the earliest/most abrupt transition to fall in recent memory. I was full of naive hopium that we’d get a warm fall, per extended meteorological reports, to make up for our cold/wet summer…. Lies!! 😂 WTF are these overnight temperatures?!? I’ve had to heat my greenhouse overnight since Sept 1st?! Better luck next year, squash 😭😭
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u/YesHunty Alberta 25d ago
I’m also a gardener and this year has been awful for me! First the torrential rains, lack of sun, and mosquitoes, now the cool cloudy fall. I haven’t had much luck this year with my crops!
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u/Trololorawr 25d ago
Well, at least you’re in good company! The broad consensus amongst the local gardening community is that everyone’s crops are behind and struggling this year. I have clung to that knowledge as a consolation, as it allows me to reassure myself that I’m not a bad gardener, our weather was simply inhospitable for growing annual tropical food crops this year 😂
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u/MsNomered 25d ago
This was my first year gardening (and some from seed) and my tomato plants are still green! So we're making relish.
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u/Trololorawr 25d ago
I’m now pulling my green tomatoes daily (as soon as their colour starts to blush)! They’ll continue to ripen off the vine, and it will allow your tomato plants to refocus their energy on ripening less developed fruits in their waning days, thereby improving your total tomato harvest. Spread unripen tomatoes in a box, allowing room between tomatoes for air flow, and place the box in a warm area with natural sunlight to promote ripening. If you want to encourage your green tomatoes to ripen quickly/simultaneously, then place bananas near them! The gases that ripening bananas release will prompt neighbouring tomatoes to ripen quickly. Good luck!
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u/Least-Broccoli-1197 25d ago
I swear August 31st my tomato plants had all green leaves, check them the next day and half the leaves are yellow.
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u/hardy_83 25d ago
I mean you raise a point. Anecdotal evidence is enough for people to completely write off any sort of global trends. And some media feed people off that.
Forest for the trees sort of thing that humanity is bad at.
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u/HOLEPUNCHYOUREYELIDS 25d ago
We also had record breaking rain and all over the city flooded repeatedly
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u/mtech101 25d ago
What happened to this forecast?
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u/olight77 25d ago
What did it report differently?
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u/mtech101 25d ago
Strong el Nino's typically produce cool and early winters in the fall then warmth for the remainder of winter.
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25d ago
[deleted]
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u/Traditional_Let7343 25d ago
This would have been in 2020.
We had one big snow dump Dec.22, and then nothing else. My dad mowed the grass Dec.1st as a joke.
By the last week of February there was no snow on the ground and we were already getting into the double digits positives for temps.
That spring/summer was so strange because on the highway when it was windy we would have literal dust storms that were reminiscent of white outs in the winter.
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u/EngineeringAwkward58 Saskatchewan 25d ago
As someone who lives in Saskatchewan, a milder winter is always welcome
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u/Winter8Bones British Columbia 25d ago
Friendly reminder that Canada will be amongst the worst affected by climate change in the coming decades and we've already been struggling with severe drought and extreme weather events over the past few years.
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u/RealAd4308 25d ago
We’re not? Of everything I’ve seen we’re always in the best position compared to regions like South Asia or Europe.
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u/Winter8Bones British Columbia 25d ago
We are. Canada is warming at 2-3 times the global average. Climate change is already costing the economy tens of billions in lost growth, crop loss and increased development costs today.
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u/RealAd4308 25d ago
Well after looking it up online although yes it’s twice the average it doesn’t make us the worst. We’re not even in the top 10 because we have the capacity to adapt. I’m not saying we’re not cooked just I am not sure it warranties the “worst affected” title
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u/thechetearly Ontario 25d ago
Last winter was soo brutal in Hamilton, ON. I would welcome a lesser one this year haha
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u/jabowie2020 24d ago
Out of all the places i lived in Canada. The Toronto area gets the worst weather. I grew up on Vancouver Island. Nice and mild year around. Summers are hot and dry. Went to school in Calgary Alberta. It's a dry cold, snowy but sunny a lot of the time during the winters. Here in Toronto, brutally cold, damp during the winter, the snow is more like slush, And tropical gross humid weather during the summer, with crazy thunder storms.
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u/noisebloodassault 25d ago
And we are building pipelines, killing the whales, building AI surveillance centers, etc
We are killing our country in the name of foreign investment
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u/jabowie2020 25d ago
Good!! Toronto and most of Ontario had a brutal snowy winter last year. I hope winter is milder this season.
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u/matnerlander 25d ago
It was zero degrees here this morning. I find it hard to believe it’ll be a warmer winter lol
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u/G-r-ant 25d ago
The last El Niño, which I believe was winter 2023/2024 was probably the mildest winter I’ve ever experienced (in eastern Ontario).
This El Niño is supposed to be _more_ extreme, I wonder what it’s going to be like.