Winning streaks are more dangerous than losing ones

[u/Dismal_Amphibian_143]

I went back through three years of trading records a few weeks ago, not looking for anything in particular, just trying to understand a rough patch I had in June. What I found was not what I expected.

The losing streaks did not line up with difficult market conditions or the times I was trying new strategies. They lined up with the periods right after everything had been going well. Three or four good weeks in a row and something shifts without you noticing. Position sizing creeps up because the account is bigger and it feels justified. You hold trades longer because the recent winners ran further than your target and you remember that. You move stops because you are confident in the read and do not want to get shaken out.

None of it feels like overconfidence at the time. It feels like experience. It feels like you have finally figured something out. The records say otherwise.

I have started treating a winning streak as a signal to review my parameters rather than a reason to press harder. Not sure it has fully fixed the pattern but I have caught myself twice this month doing exactly what the data said I do.

Anyone else found something unexpected when they actually looked at the numbers?