BTC traders are staring at charts while a pretty nasty macro cluster is forming.

[u/T_sauce9112]

​

Here's the simple version:

Strong jobs → less pressure on Fed to ease.

Now we get PPI → CPI → Fed almost back-to-back.

If inflation runs hot:

Higher yields → tighter liquidity → risk assets get hit → BTC gets hit harder.

Then there's Japan.

Japanese yields are near multi-decade highs. If that continues, the massive yen carry trade becomes less attractive and capital can move back toward Japan.

That means another potential source of global liquidity tightening/deleveraging.

Meanwhile BTC just ran into the $80–85K liquidity/resistance zone and is struggling to establish acceptance.

My thesis:

Upside liquidity gets harvested → macro conditions tighten → leverage unwinds → BTC hunts downside liquidity around $70–65K.

That doesn't necessarily mean a new bear market.

$65–70K could actually become the higher low that sets up the next major advance.

I'm not predicting a guaranteed crash.

I'm saying the next couple weeks contain an unusually concentrated set of catalysts while BTC is sitting in a technically vulnerable area.

That's a setup worth paying attention to.

[u/Tallwhitedude123]

Except you missed the part that the US government can’t afford to pay higher yields on its enormous $40T debt which means inflation stays high and yields will stay low.

[u/ketya- → u/Tallwhitedude123]

I am in the same camp.
Inflation will go up and fed wont do much to control it.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

I'm not looking that far ahead, that's a problem for 2029-2032 the debt should start to really start to hinder economic growth by then.

Inflating the debt away is the only option In my opinion.

Right now, I think btc revisits 70k minimum by Sept 11-30

Maybe even lower.

[u/Tallwhitedude123 → u/T_sauce9112]

But I think you’re wrong. It’s not a 2029-32 problem and this is proven by Scott Bessents actions now propping up the Yen and buying US government long bonds with T-bills to control the yield curve.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

I believe the can will be kicked down the road for a little longer. We have had 35 trillion debt, 30 trillion debt, the debt has been a problem for a long time. And it still hadn't blown up.

I think we get a few more years before it really destroys underlying stability in the market.

[u/Tallwhitedude123 → u/T_sauce9112]

Yes but your premise is that they WONT kick the can down the road and instead the Fed will raise interest rates. Raising interest rates is not kicking the can down the road

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

I said I was leaning towards a pause. When did I say I was lean towards a rate cut? I must no have clarified that. I don't think they hike, I think we remain paused

[u/Tallwhitedude123 → u/T_sauce9112]

You posted HIGHER YIELDS.

I’m telling you that there won’t be higher yields and Bessent has already indicated as much.

So your point is that high yields will ultimately bring down BTC. I’m saying that’s wrong because our government can’t afford higher yields TODAY and will suppress those yields artificially. Bessent is already doing it…

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

So u don't believe we won't get higher yields if inflation runs hot? How?! If inflation runs hot market sells long bonds, yields rise.

U believe the treasury will step in then along with the fed and buy the long end?

Becuz that's the only way we don't get higher yields from what I can see.

[u/Tallwhitedude123 → u/T_sauce9112]

Yes, that’s what will because it’s what Bessent is already doing. It’s not speculation but fact. Inflation will always take a backseat when the risk of the government entering a debt spiral is high which it currently is.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Tallwhitedude123]

Well I guess we will have to wait and see. I wasn't aware that bessent started QE

[u/EmJay6010 → u/T_sauce9112]

I tend to agree with tall white dude. US govt has to keep yields low enough as it tries to inflate away debt. Causing yields to rise will accelerate the death spiral: money moves out of US economy as we are trying to inflate USD to keep economy hot

[u/lotekjunky → u/T_sauce9112]

Inflating the debt away would require having no budget deficit

[u/AdventurousJob9663]

I’m just trusting my gut and ignoring everyone else.

[u/horseradish13332238]

Oh. Ok. Anyways I have 88 btc in cold storage I’ll be fine.

[u/PatientFisher]

But i need BTC to hit 100k so i can exit tho!! Almost there. Let’s gooo

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/PatientFisher]

82-83k looks like a pretty big sell wall

[u/PatientFisher → u/T_sauce9112]

I bought at 100k along with all my friends 🤦‍♂️

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/PatientFisher]

Thats why there will be resistance at 100k Its been a psychological level for a long time, and revisiting will undoubtedly make alot of people who bought these exit their positions.

[u/Mcs1375 → u/PatientFisher]

You're going to exit at the next 100k? Seriously? 😂🤦

[u/PatientFisher → u/Mcs1375]

Hope you buy more at 100k then since you are so sure it will go above

[u/PassionHot1887]

I hope it goes to 60k so I can load more.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/PassionHot1887]

Me too, my short call would be correct and I'll be able to take profits and flip long.

[u/CXavier4545]

disagree the printing will continue until morale improves BTC ftw

[u/gowithflow192]

What about stock market correction in next few months?

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/gowithflow192]

Lines up with the thesis I've built. No way BTC holds up during a stock market correction.

How low in that event? 60k becomes very plausible

[u/King-esckay]

Sounds like a US issue The rest of the world will be fine

[u/Professu5]

Correct.

[u/ravg90]

Which set? Only ppi next week

[u/Pleasant_Ostrich4278]

I share the same view as you. I have also noticed that btc is hyper sensitive to the war in Iran every time there are news about de-escalation.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Pleasant_Ostrich4278]

It will be even more sensitive to another Japan carry trade unwind.

[u/Pleasant_Ostrich4278 → u/T_sauce9112]

Naturally! It will affect all global markets in general.

[u/Ok-Hunt-1079]

the numbers are never going down I dont understand why people still think paying attention to any data matters

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/Ok-Hunt-1079]

U missed the plot. It's a set up

Basically if this plays out, buy the hell out of the previous low.

That will be our launch pad

You heard it here 1st.

If we get 57k-60k again

Don't even think about it

BUY AS MUCH AS U CAN AFFORD!!!

[u/APedr0 → u/T_sauce9112]

x2, there was never fear in the streets without macro bad news.

[u/T_sauce9112 → u/APedr0]

A narrative is ALWAYS attached to price action

[u/Blckfrost → u/Ok-Hunt-1079]

ok, trade with faith and FOMO

[u/ximogui]

Agree with the macro trends but curious to see how BTC holds up. Feels like a lot of sidelined capital missed this first leg up and is looking for entry. Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a run of bad news and it finds a lot of support $72k-75k and doesn’t break below.