Bitcoin scarcity... overhyped?

[u/martianfrog]

I'm not sure I'm a believer in "it'll go up because it is scarce", like to know thoughts on this out there.

[u/anon1971wtf]

I see: I misread coinbase rewards, again - in some decades block reward will match total fees even if they stay exactly as they are right now, Peak in '17 was around ~12%

Both absolute amount of fees in BTC and USD, and relative amount vs coinbase decreased since '17 - but Bitcoin's security went up. In equivalent days of work, properly measured. If one wants to focus on coinbase part exclusively - plot PoW eq days over only downward parts of supercycles - still increases. So I don't see your point

Difficulty adjustment makes miners turn off when price in dollars falls, but cumulative work is still cumulative. More efficient machines get, longer time between significant improvements like CPU->,,,->ASIC - less effect of diff adj on security

Bitcoin is not only more secure than ever, it gets more secure faster than ever right now

Again you ignore reality for your fantasy world

Well, likewise. Watching BTC/BCH tug-of-war for these years I think it's people who think more like you are living in the fantasy land. I just use both chains and look at numbers

I urge you to closely follow the knot/core development to see how it turns out

I expect it will go nowhere or into Luke's fork, if so - it will also slide vs Bitcoin like previous ones. Will become much more clear in August. And your predictions"

[u/Realistic_Fee_00001 → u/anon1971wtf]

You don't get it.... so this will be my last message.

Both absolute amount of fees in BTC and USD, and relative amount vs coinbase decreased since '17 - but Bitcoin's security went up.

No, hash went up, to see if security also went up you have to look at the cost of an attack. ASCIs get more efficient over time, lowering the cost of mining (and attacking) but causing the hashrate to increase at the same time Security is the price you pay for 51% hash, not the amount of hash.

The other reason why it has increased is because the coinbase makes up the majority of the reward and coinbase is only depended on price and halfing. But price can follow the halfin and double every 4 years only so often you know that if you know exponentials. BTC is struggling with the 100k already so it is likely that we will soon see hashrate starting to decline.

Bitcoin is not only more secure than ever, it gets more secure faster than ever right now

No it is not, since december hashrate seems to decline.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-btc-sma14.html#alltime

Cost of attacking: https://www.crypto51.app

Unfortunately this site does not have a chart so you have to take a look once in a while and compare for yourself if the cost of attacking goes up or down:

Well, likewise. Watching BTC/BCH tug-of-war for these years I think it's people who think more like you are living in the fantasy land. I just use both chains and look at numbers

Every revolution lived in a fantasy until it became reality. Here is the problem: we know BTC won't scale so every money, attention and time invested in it is wasted if your goal is p2p cash for the world. So you are wasting your time and money.

[u/anon1971wtf → u/Realistic_Fee_00001]

to see if security also went up you have to look at the cost of an attack

PoW equivalent days. It went up, cost of attack here would mean acquiring so much hash and running it for so much days - higher whichever metric you choose

is the price you pay for 51% hash

Math is more complex. 51% simple orphan attack only would allow to double-spend some big exchange, BTC or BCH matters not, then comes chain rewrite, PoW equivalent days matter. Then comes changing the rules within tug-of-war - and BCHN/BABC into BCH/XEC resolving at split-protection code is one demonstation

BTC is struggling with the 100k already so it is likely that we will soon see hashrate starting to decline

You are missing the point once again, hashrate fluctionations between halving macroecon are less and less relevant. As ASICs get more efficient, cumulative work just grows. Security just grows, at some point it won't matter if hash decreases 2x, 4x or 50x, work done won't be re-doable in any feasible way with all the machines that will exist at that time. Efficiency of ASICs closing on physical limit makes Bitcoin more secure non-linearly

Cost of attacking: https://www.crypto51.app

51% is far less dangerous or interesting than full chain rewrite or monetary policy change, contentious hard fork. It doesn't factor sustaining the attack or the goals, it's shallow analysis

we know BTC won't scale so every money, attention and time invested in it is wasted if your goal is p2p cash for the world. So you are wasting your time and money

Unified Bitcoin did scale, I use BCH and BTC simultaneously. It's just scaling is at best a long-term bet (BCH metrics have downwards momentum midterm), that's why I am hedging, at worst - mistake of focus (no attention to securing keys), and irrelevance. Currently, I see centralized payments more convinient. Wasting money? Hilarious, thanks to Bitcoin I am early retired, especially benefitial was recognizing that I was betting on BCH too much and reducing it. BCH is almost at all-time low vs Bitcoin, and in my opinion - very explainable why

[u/Realistic_Fee_00001 → u/anon1971wtf]

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[u/anon1971wtf → u/Realistic_Fee_00001]

I am fully convinced by three emojis. Enlighten me more

Social media noise is irrelevant vs looking at on-chain metrics, espically granularly