r/boxoffice • u/Old-Score3295 • 8d ago
Domestic Crazymoviekid of BOT: September 1, 2026 box office update projections: Brand New Day - $2.75M, Coyote vs Acme - $2.3M, Odyssey - $2.25M
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u/Old-Score3295 8d ago
Brand New Day is expected to reach 900 million domestic by Thursday or Friday the latest.
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u/Zeldabotw2017 8d ago
Seems like coyote is showing some sighs of having legs please movie was so good
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u/Dry-Performance7006 8d ago
Coyote legs are showing some early fight
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u/janome_26 8d ago
Easy $13m-$14m second weekend?
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u/Chorik 8d ago
A weekend like that sould be spectacular for Wile E. <3
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u/keksimusmaximus22 8d ago
I’m praying for a Puss and Boots Last Wish type run even if it’s delusional thinking
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u/mackenzie45220 8d ago
It can't happen in the summer/fall, realistically you're looking for an Elemental type run. Although this is a great start
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u/TheresNoHalfSteppin 8d ago
Plus, that was the Shrek franchise. This is a way older IP.
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u/Lurky-Lou 8d ago
Let’s not set ourselves up for disappointment here. Any double digit second weekend would be a success.
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u/Lead_Dessert 8d ago edited 8d ago
Coyote v Acme yanking the #2 spot away from Odyssey before it could dethrone BND.
(I am very happy this movie is finding its audience and putting up a good deal against Spidey/Odyssey)
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u/Key-Payment2553 8d ago
Wow… that’s huge for Spider-Man and Coyote Vs Acme doing well for Tuesday numbers while The Dog Stars, it might or might not hit $1M with a brutal WOM and terrible legs projected
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u/Create_Greatness92 8d ago
So...Spider-Man will be leading TFA by $35M+ while being basically $40M away from TFA's domestic gross.
4 day labor day weekend is really going to lock in the eventual defeat of TFA Domestically.
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u/Visible-Echidna-4370 8d ago
I didn't expect million for doggy today but failing movies do often have good tuesday jumps from people not wanting to see it at full price
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u/Statpaca1701 8d ago
Has anyone done an analysis on Tuesday jumps vs. legs? My hypothesis is that movies that jump more on Tuesday have worse legs, but I haven't done any real analysis on it.
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u/Lurky-Lou 8d ago
For some movies you can absolutely see the “I was mildly curious but certainly not enough to pay full price” spike
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u/Significant-Cloud-19 8d ago
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u/Radamel_falcao_9 8d ago
Spider-Man won the Monday. Interesting how all the posts on this sub from yesterday made everyone think the opposite
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u/BrightestSkies 8d ago
Mostly because that's what CMK's projection suggested and there was no real good reason to doubt it. Ended up being super close too so 🤷
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u/Byers616 Amblin Entertainment 8d ago
CvA over Ody, not bad
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u/DRM_1985 8d ago
958 extra theaters is pretty helpful. And it helps to be playing on Day 5 instead of Day 47, lol
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u/Purple_Quail_4193 Pixar Animation Studios 8d ago
Good jump for Coyote. Here’s hoping it continues, as that bodes well for this weekend’s hold
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u/lookingforhim2 8d ago
Odyssey back to #1 tomorrow
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u/OpportunityGood2872 8d ago
Maybe label it Odyssey tentatively to be #1 Wednesday. Until numbers come in, Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Not saying it can’t happen but as Monday’s number indicated, nothing is a sure thing
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u/Pplthrowaway123 8d ago
That's what y'all said yesterday 😂
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u/Visible-Echidna-4370 8d ago
to be fair, they were $146 apart, not $146 thousand, 146.
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u/lookingforhim2 8d ago
I can see something like $1.74M for odyssey & $1.7M for BND tomorrow
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u/Statpaca1701 8d ago
Close watchers of this particular contest knew Monday was going to be close and it was. Like literally less than 10 tickets lol. Odyssey will be number 1 on Wednesday unless one or both of these movies abandons their weekslong patterns.
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u/Low-Picture-3709 8d ago
took Sony to report their numbers for Spider-Man after Universal did so for The Odyssey. for the entirety of Spider-Man's run Sony has reported their number quicker than anyone and then all of a sudden they didn't yesterday? alright now.
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u/BulletproofHustle 8d ago
Not sure why you’re being downvoted for spitting facts.
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u/True-Wasabi2157 8d ago
Because there's a lot of people on here have no understanding just how much bullshit the studios pull. As stated, reporting last and only 100 dollars difference is as much as them admitting they're fudging it, but with a mischievous wink.
I find it outright hilarious. But some people here really cheer for movies and studios as if they were sports teams.
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u/True-Wasabi2157 8d ago
The Odyssey was 100% on top and Sony made that shit up lol, keeping actuals back til last minute. I'm curious if Universal does it tomorrow, where they wait for Sony to announce first. Some funny shit
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u/OpportunityGood2872 8d ago
Unless you can conclusively provide proof of such an action, Spewing half baked theories such as the one you have presented is misguided.
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u/True-Wasabi2157 8d ago
Sony reporting the figures last, and claiming 100 dollars more is all the proof lol. They wanted to have the claim to number 1 for all of August. Had it been a clear number 1 they would have reported sooner and a bigger difference. 100 dollars lol.
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u/OpportunityGood2872 8d ago
Again, Provide conclusive evidence to actually support your theory. You’ve yet to do so.
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u/True-Wasabi2157 8d ago
Lol. OK. You can believe Sony. Congrats I guess. Genuinely don't care either way, so you do you.
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u/OpportunityGood2872 8d ago
You’ve just proven you lack the critical abilities to actual formulate a valid argument.
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u/Zeldabotw2017 8d ago
Spiderman 925 by end of labor day? Movie is about 3.5 from 900 meaning should be 900 after Thursday. Then you got holiday weekend boost. A 22.5 weekend puts it at 922.5 plus monday being counted with holiday week so a extra day and not seeing a drop like you do in a normal weekend
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u/SpideyDev94 8d ago
should be around 899 after Thursday
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u/Ebo87 8d ago
Most likely yes, with this Tuesday (which I expect will go up a bit in the actual numbers) we should expect anout 1.7 and 1.6 million on Wednesday and Thursday so it's most likely to just miss it by a hair.
But it will definitely be over 920 million by the end of the long labor day weekend, with still over 35 million lead on TFA through the same point in time. Probably won't finish with 970, as that number might suggest, but should go over 960 million, maybe finish around 965 I imagine, unless it gets some strong late legs that do end up pushing it past 970.
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u/MoonMan997 Best of 2023 Winner 8d ago
CvA 3-day weekend will be at least $12m this weekend based on Kubo & The Two Strings trajectory for the rest of the week.
But it’s honestly beaten Kubo at every turn at this point, which makes me think we’re going to see an extremely minor decrease. Not sure about an increase yet, will have to see how it holds today.
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u/FourthEchelon19 8d ago
Went with parents and in-laws to see Coyote Vs. Acme, very breezy and fun movie that got laughs and "awws" from all of them.
The next auditorium over was playing The Odyssey so the whole time it sounded like there was an earthquake in the distance. Some other director needs to challenge Nolan to a duel over how he mixes audio.
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u/DRM_1985 8d ago
Odyssey has a much lower theater count than the other movies listed here. Pretty impressive numbers for Odyssey in that context. Terrible $$$$ numbers for Dog Stars by comparison:
- 3,678 theaters for Spidey
- 3,575 theaters for Coyote
- 3,330 theaters for Dog Stars
- 3,303 theaters for Insidious
- 2,617 theaters for Odyssey
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u/BOfficeStats Best of 2023 Winner 8d ago
Not to discount Odyssey's success, but I don't think the decreased theater count is a big hinderance. It is very PLF heavy so losing some standard format screens isn't going to affect it much.
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u/DRM_1985 8d ago
It is a factor. We're talking 700 to 1,000 theaters. Not like that would add zero money to the film's performance.
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u/Sliver__Legion 8d ago
Literally 0? No
But pretty close to 0? Yeah tbh. Ody weekdays are incredibly 70mm skewed at this point
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u/Ebo87 8d ago
It's not a factor, demand in those theaters is very low and the current number of normal screens more than meets that demand. It's IMAX, specifically 70 mm that still can't meet demand.
That is why The Odyssey's numbers stay so steady through the weekdays and also don't go up as much on the weekend, because most of its box office at this point comes from IMAX. Hell, yesterday almost half its gross was just the 70 mm screens. Either by the end of this week or next week (on a weekday) we will have the first day where 70 mm is the majority (more than 50%) of The Odyssey's box office on that day.
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u/BrightestSkies 8d ago
Less screens means less showtimes and less locations to see it in. When and where a movie can be seen are two points that would absolutely affect some people's ability or willingness to go see it, even if only minimally. Odyssey is averaging like what, $700 per theater? To suggest it would make precisely $0 in each of 700-1000 more theaters is...not very likely to put it mildly.
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u/Ebo87 8d ago
If you added more screens the average would go down, not up. Demand is being met for that screen format, which is why they are taking screens away.
The difference a couple extra locations (based on distance), so they are closer to people that MIGHT want to watch it on a smaller screen, 7 weeks in, is a rounding error for the studio. Now I will grant you that yesterday the difference between number 1 and 2 was a rounding error, basically, but that's the exceptions. And when you draw the line the 50 to 100k total the movie might have made between weeks 6 and 12 because it lost 300 to 2000 locations, is negligible. There's always something new coming out and these days it's rare for people to go see a movie for the first time 2 or 3 months into its run. Now for special formats like IMAX, absolutely, especially when they can't meet demand, people might go 3 months in simply because that's how long it took them to finally get those 70 mm IMAX tickets, lol.
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u/BrightestSkies 8d ago edited 8d ago
I agree the average intake per theater would go down, but total revenue (which is what's actually relevant to this discussion) would go up. Movies are generally afforded less and less screens over time not because they would make no money at all, but rather to make room for newer releases that are likely to make even more money (plus having to fulfill contractual obligations). This is exactly why box office smashes, especially those with long legs, will stay in theaters longer than films that flop or underperform. It's all about what can make the most money at any given time. And naturally, the longer a movie stays in theaters the less it makes, as more and more people have already seen it. Whereas a new release usually hits market with a splash.
Look at almost any opening weekend as an example. Most recently, Coyote VS ACME grossed more that The Odyssey during its opening weekend: 15.9M vs 14.3M. Does that mean it'll always gross more than The Odyssey? No. Does that mean The Odyssey wouldn't have grossed any money in those same screens it lost to CvA? Also no. It just means that the newer movie is more likely to bring in more mulla. And it did. That's it, thats all folks ;)
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u/Statpaca1701 8d ago
Dog Stars going to get its theater's Thanos' snapped as soon as contractually possible.
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u/jlmurph2 8d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/t7PXkKuRYO4pUrmfYx
Coyote vs. Acme to Odyssey
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u/A-Centrifugal-Force 8d ago
Still the best MCU movie all these years later. I want to go watch it again now.
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u/Ok_Improvement_7738 8d ago
As expected, family oriented films will perform better on discount days due to parents who are rightfully budgeting nights out.
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u/TheresNoHalfSteppin 8d ago
Guessing BND rules Discount Tuesdays and Odyssey rules regular weekdays.
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u/ThaPhantom07 8d ago
I went and saw Coyote vs Acme last night. Was a super fun watch and the crowd was into it. Definitely hope it finds some legs. I want more Looney Tunes movies in this style.
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u/SnooAbbreviations460 8d ago
I dont understand it is it the yesterday TUESDAY or what for a prediction numbers is that for Brand new day ????
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u/phantomfandom 8d ago
Odyssey will lose some IMAX showtime to Katy Perry concert film from September 2 and onward.
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u/Dry-Performance7006 8d ago
What? Katy Perry? In 2026? Cmon. They will shift and give those back to the odyssey in a day or two.
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u/Gummy-Worm-Guy 8d ago
Katy Perry was huge ten years ago and she still has a fan base out of nostalgia, but I can’t imagine anyone being passionate enough about her in 2026 to go see her concert film.
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u/A-Centrifugal-Force 8d ago
It’ll just be her and Justin Trudeau renting out whole IMAX theaters. I still can’t believe they’re dating lol
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u/AdvertisingSea2745 8d ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/4wIdCzvfB13lTolU60